September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Timmy Supercell]

Been awhile since anything remotely noteworthy occurred, actually.

 

Crater Lake beating a 67 year December snow record last Winter wasn't noteworthy? 

[BLI snowman]

You sure you're not thinking of October 1950?

 

In October of 1951, the NOAA reanalyses do indicate zonal flow undercutting that EPO block, but doesn't seem overly intense on any of the datasets...1950 on the other hand..

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/1D1675DF-6DA1-4C91-937C-6670D621712A_zpsxajs7ehk.png

 

Yeah, that was another good example. Very strong jet that month. Nice winter followed.

[BLI snowman]

Crater Lake beating a 67 year December snow record last Winter wasn't noteworthy? 

 

I would say 9 months is awhile.

 

Some of the heat this year has certainly been noteworthy: April, June, and late August all had impressive events. Otherwise been a forgettable run. 

[Phil]

Yeah, that was another good example. Very strong jet that month. Nice winter followed.

Thing is, these relationships and correlations will change over time. The NH Hadley Cells, in particular, have migrated poleward by at least 10-15 degrees since the 1950s. Until this reverses, it'll be difficult to score a good PNW winter on zonal flow/-PNA alone.

 

Obviously, not all zonal/+EPO Octobers will be followed by poor winters, but a lot of them are, especially nowadays.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF looks quite a bit chillier than the GFS.  Pretty much high and dry with a cool air mass over us after the trough leaves.  At face value a lot of chilly nights and cool sunny or partly cloudy days.  Pretty likely we will see a good active period thrown in sometime before mid month.

[snow_wizard]

I would say 9 months is awhile.

 

Some of the heat this year has certainly been noteworthy: April, June, and late August all had impressive events. Otherwise been a forgettable run. 

 

The biggest story of the last few months has certainly been the incredibly resilient GOA ridge.  A feature that will bring lots of fun this winter if the anomaly can continue.  I'm just pleased the endless torching we saw for so long has come to an end.

[snow_wizard]

Thing is, these relationships and correlations will change over time. The NH Hadley Cells, in particular, have migrated poleward by at least 10-15 degrees since the 1950s. Until this reverses, it'll be difficult to score a good PNW winter on zonal flow/-PNA alone.

 

Obviously, not all zonal/+EPO Octobers will be followed by poor winters, but a lot of them are, especially nowadays.

 

I agree.  We want above normal heights over the NE Pacific in October.

[BLI snowman]

The biggest story of the last few months has certainly been the incredibly resilient GOA ridge.  A feature that will bring lots of fun this winter if the anomaly can continue.  I'm just pleased the endless torching we saw for so long has come to an end.

 

Famous last words.

[TT-SEA]

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[Front Ranger]

As expected, 2007, 2005, 1998, etc are all showing up. Also some Niño years like 1992 and 1958.

 

Though there's also 2008 showing up on 10/02, and 1970 on 10/27.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

1992 and 1958 were not Nino years. Not by this time.

[TT-SEA]

Coldest morning of the season at SEA... at least down to 48.

 

Of course the normal low is now 49.

[Jesse]

PDX about six degrees warmer than the next coolest place in the metro area this morning.

[Phil]

1992 and 1958 were not Nino years. Not by this time.

Well, like 2014/15, the atmosphere was in Niño mode, and the Niño3.4 SSTA anomaly was positive. In my opinion, for all intents and purposes, they were Niño winters.

[Timmy Supercell]

I would say 9 months is awhile.

 

Some of the heat this year has certainly been noteworthy: April, June, and late August all had impressive events. Otherwise been a forgettable run. 

 

Oh, I thought this was about a longer period of time.. My bad. 

 

The anomalous April and the semi-severe t'storm in May were my highlights this year. So close to getting a real storm for once.

[ShawniganLake]

Jeez. The models sure have been doing a good job of washing out the late September and now early October troughs as the time frames have neared. The weather has been pleasant but nothing noteworthy in the cold department really.

[TT-SEA]

Jeez. The models sure have been doing a good job of washing out the late September and now early October troughs as the time frames have neared. The weather has been pleasant but nothing noteworthy in the cold department really.

 

 

Very pleasant... 18 out of the last 21 days have been basically sunny here.   

 

Tomorrow and Sunday look pretty nice as well.   Saturday is the only the day with a good chance of meaningful rain.    Next week looks like more of the same too. 

[snow drift]

Very pleasant... 18 out of the last 21 days have been basically sunny here.   

 

Tomorrow and Sunday look pretty nice as well.   Saturday is the only the day with a good chance of meaningful rain.    Next week looks like more of the same too. 

The sunshine looks glorious.

[Tyler Mode]

Check out this short timelapse of the clouds up at Mt. Rainier today. Notice the low clouds at the bottom, and wave clouds at the top...

 

https://youtu.be/5Z9kKHLQb_A

[luminen]

High of 58F today under sunny skies. It feels chilly.

[Timmy Supercell]

High of 81 today. This could be the last 80+ day here.

 

Off and on wind gusts over 30 mph too. Feels great in direct sunlight.

[TT-SEA]

Randy... here is an update from Cliff Mass speaking right to you since you are heading out to the coast:

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/09/wet-period-ahead.html

 

Bottom line: if you keep away the coast, this weekend will be tolerable and eastern Washington should be pleasant.  But wetter conditions are expected later in the week over both sides of the Cascades. 

[snow_wizard]

Jeez. The models sure have been doing a good job of washing out the late September and now early October troughs as the time frames have neared. The weather has been pleasant but nothing noteworthy in the cold department really.

 

The trough is still looking to be pretty impressive.

[Jesse]

The trough is still looking to be pretty impressive.

I'm coming around to liking the pattern for next week more. It just always sucks seeing a very cool, active pattern get way watered down. But there will still be lots of cool days and chilly nights. Pure heaven compared to the last two Octobers.

[Jesse]

Today was gorgeous.

[MossMan]

Chilly this morning!

[MossMan]

Randy... here is an update from Cliff Mass speaking right to you since you are heading out to the coast:

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/09/wet-period-ahead.html

 

Bottom line: if you keep away the coast, this weekend will be tolerable and eastern Washington should be pleasant. But wetter conditions are expected later in the week over both sides of the Cascades.

Argh...oh well, it's too late to go east instead of the coast. Hopefully we will get some dry breaks here and there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some Thunderstorms popping up in C. Oregon this evening. 

[TT-SEA]

Probably not a good idea for a vacation in the Bahamas next week.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_141_precip_p03.gif

 

 

Or Cape Hatteras

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_180_precip_p03.gif

[Phil]

00z GFS looks like a raging Niño. Legit NPAC jet extension in the long range.

[TT-SEA]

00z GFS looks like a raging Niño. Legit NPAC jet extension in the long range.

 

Yeah... that is quite the system offshore in 11 days!   

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/precip_p12/gfs_namer_264_precip_p12.gif

[snow_wizard]

00z GFS looks like a raging Niño. Legit NPAC jet extension in the long range.

 

At least it's decently cool because much of the time the low is a bit north and or east of the awful position that gives us warm rain.  I still wouldn't be surprised if it verifies better than that or is short lived.

[TT-SEA]

At least it's decently cool because much of the time the low is a bit north and or east of the awful position that gives us warm rain.  I still wouldn't be surprised if it verifies better than that or is short lived.

 

Plenty time for that to change.

[Timmy Supercell]

Some Thunderstorms popping up in C. Oregon this evening. 

 

Saw the strikes on Mark's CG map, I was surprised to see them. 09/25 is personally my latest t'storm here.. 

[snow_wizard]

I'm coming around to liking the pattern for next week more. It just always sucks seeing a very cool, active pattern get way watered down. But there will still be lots of cool days and chilly nights. Pure heaven compared to the last two Octobers.

 

Indeed.  We had  a lot of room for the models to degrade and still end up decent.  Next week does look decently cool.  Beyond that it will be interesting to see how it unfolds.

[Phil]

At least it's decently cool because much of the time the low is a bit north and or east of the awful position that gives us warm rain. I still wouldn't be surprised if it verifies better than that or is short lived.

I'm seeing shades of 2010:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-09/0F060D03-CF17-4501-86B8-E0E2E0D23E32_zps0eh69sj0.png

[TT-SEA]

Canadian shows the monster approaching at day 10 as well.   Good agreement for being that far out.  

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

[snow_wizard]

PDX about six degrees warmer than the next coolest place in the metro area this morning.

 

Amazingly SEA did alright this morning.  It dropped to 42 here so a decently below normal day IMBY.

[snow_wizard]

I'm seeing shades of 2010:

 

 

I would take my chances with a 2010-11 type winter again.  It was decent and could have easily ended up even better.

[DareDuck]

Some Thunderstorms popping up in C. Oregon this evening.

Yup. Had a couple good shows off the ENE. Nocturnal storms are always the best. Got a good shot of one of the bolts, but posting photos here sucks.

[TT-SEA]

Phil - I was going back to review 2010-11 and look at the November event in the archives and got side tracked by your "ramblings" thread.

 

You were saying that global cooling started in 2012 and that arctic events would become much more common starting that winter will a major crash in 2016-17.   

 

It seems so far away at the time... but we have almost arrived at 2017.     And to your credit... you are still talking about the same thing.

 

Some things you said back then:

 

- Winter 2012-13 will show no mercy, and should make the past 20+ winters look tame everywhere...but there is a question on when it sets in. Could be one of those warm fall-like patterns from NOV thru the New Year, before icy hell unloads suddenly and doesn't let go for several months.

-The winters towards the middle/end of this decade and beyond are the ones to fear nationwide, though. 

 

-We will not immediately plunge 5-10 degrees centigrade into an ice age climate, but a notable decadal-scale cooling should initiate during winter 2012-13, with the rate increasing sometime around 2017