October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[stuffradio]

Any new thoughts on how warm and humid it will be Sunday?

Praying for you guys down there.

[snow_wizard]

Yup, great trend. Always nice to see things get better in the home stretch.

 

A pretty deep trough in the mid range now too. 500mb heights well down into the 540s.

 

Pretty decent trends right now.  Hopefully that will continue.  Well worth noting the setup this weekend would bring a boat load of snow to somewhere in the lowlands if this were winter.  Classic confluence of the northern and southern branches with an upstream high amp block in the northern branch.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

WRF came in even stronger with the wind up here late tomorrow. Probably overdone, but its showing gusts to 70mph for the waters surrounding Victoria.  That would be big blow, especially considering the trees are mostly still leafed out. 

 

Looking forward to our first wind/rain storm. Should be pretty windy on the hill here tomorrow evening, also might be the biggest rain event since February. Although, I'll be up island for the weekend where it's now looking drier.

[Deweydog]

So....who ended up the true forecasting king this summer, Tim or Phil?

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1355-summer-2016-monthly-anomaly-forecast-contest/page-4

Can you seriously not figure it out yourself?

[Front Ranger]

Do you want me to score it Jared?

 

I will try to find time. Physics classes consuming a lot of energy at the moment.

 

 

Can you seriously not figure it out yourself?

 

Yes.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF is spitting out some crazy rainfall totals with frontal boundary that sags south over the weekend.

[ShawniganLake]

I did better for PDX than SEA.

 

I was 0.1 too warm at PDX...and 0.5 too cold for SEA.  

Just adding up your monthly forecast numbers and the actual numbers for each month is pointless.  you could have forecast +10, -10, +10, -6 and end up being close.  You have to add up your error for each month. 

[snow_wizard]

The GEM is in excellent agreement with the GFS in digging the northern branch further south than previous runs.  In fact the block this weekend looks much more robust than it did on last nights run.  This could get kind of interesting.

[Trainwreck]

Why the name change, Maty?

Forgot my password for the other one and was drinking one night and came up with train wreck. I was thinking of my ex at the time lol.

[Phil]

So....who ended up the true forecasting king this summer, Tim or Phil?

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1355-summer-2016-monthly-anomaly-forecast-contest/page-4

The upper level pattern ended up almost exactly as I thought, however my knowledge of surface temperature dynamics in the PNW is fairly weak, so I'm not happy with my performance in that regard.

[Phil]

Do you want me to score it Jared?

 

I will try to find time. Physics classes consuming a lot of energy at the moment.

Yikes, I feel you there.

[Phil]

What a terrible track. Can it possibly follow the exact coastline the entire way to SC?

 

 

I'm probably driving down to Saint Simons today, booked a hotel room and everything. If that area is going under, I'm going under with it.

[crf450ish]

Foggy at my house 39 degrees....nice clean crisp air. Refreshing. 

[TT-SEA]

I'm probably driving down to Saint Simons today, booked a hotel room and everything. If that area is going under, I'm going under with it.

 

You will be that crazy guy heading towards the coast when the other side of the freeway is bumper-to-bumper traffic heading away.  

 

It will be interesting to have our own personal updates... hopefully you will have internet somehow.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF shifted the track westward... Matthew is over land all the way up the east coast of Florida and just offshore of SE GA on Friday night and SC on Saturday.   

 

This one is going to be bad for a huge area.  

[Phil]

You will be that crazy guy heading towards the coast when the other side of the freeway is bumper-to-bumper traffic heading away.

 

It will be interesting to have our own personal updates... hopefully you will have internet somehow.

I know the topography of that area like the back of my hand. Experienced a bunch of storms there...Fay, Floyd, Tammy, even the outer bands of Katrina. I usually head down there when a hurricane threatens, and given its a tiny town, everyond knows me as that crazy hurricane guy.

 

That said, I have never experienced a storm quite like this one, though, so that's the only reason I'm hesitant. My usual chasing partners (gf and cousin) refuse to go with me this time, and I don't like chasing alone.

[TT-SEA]

I know the topography of that area like the back of my hand. Experienced a bunch of storms there...Fay, Floyd, Tammy, even the outer bands of Katrina. I usually head down there when a hurricane threatens, and given its a tiny town, everyond knows me as that crazy hurricane guy.

 

That said, I have never experienced a storm quite like this one, though, so that's the only reason I'm hesitant. My usual chasing partners (gf and cousin) refuse to go with me this time, and I don't like chasing alone.

 

 

A category 1 or low end 2 would be fun... I don't think I would put myself in the path of this one though.

[Phil]

A category 1 or low end 2 would fun... I don't think I would put myself in the path of this one though.

Yeah I'm honestly more worried about surge than wind, given the funnel effect of the coastal topography. Can be the real pill if you're not careful..prolonged NE fetch on this one. https://www.wunderground.com/MAR/AM/450.html?MR=1

 

The strongest storm I've ever experienced was Cat3 Wilma in Miami Dade County back in '05, and those winds paralleled the intercoastal waterway so surge wasn't a huge deal.

[Phil]

Video like this are what give me second thoughts. This was taken during hurricane Andrew in 1992. Apparently this was on the weaker side of the eyewall..can't imagine how bad it was on the north side.

 

 

But, to be clear, Andrew was indeed a category five at landfall, but my location in this video was outside of the area that experienced the worst of the storm. At my location in this video (which was about a mile and a half ENE of the National Hurricane Center) I estimate maximum sustained winds were in the mid-range of category three.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My friend was in Florida for two of he hurricanes that hit in 2004 (?) I can't remember their names now. He has some great pics. 

[luminen]

3.8F in Tok this morning just before sunrise. That's pretty cold for them this time of year. 

[Phil]

My friend was in Florida for two of he hurricanes that hit in 2004 (?) I can't remember their names now. He has some great pics.

Charley? That was a nasty one, made landfall as a Cat4.

 

FWIW, HiRes 12z GFS takes Matthew inland over NE FL/SE GA as an apparent Cat3. F**k. Almost have to root for a full landfall in FL somewhere to prevent destruction up the coast. Still, my worry is that the core will hug the coast, as small core systems sometimes do given adequate differential friction.

[Bham_Guy]

Charley? That was a nasty one, made landfall as a Cat4.

 

FWIW, HiRes 12z GFS takes Matthew inland over NE FL/SE GA as an apparent Cat3. F**k. Almost have to root for a full landfall in FL somewhere to prevent destruction up the coast. Still, my worry is that the core will hug the coast, as small core systems sometimes do given adequate differential friction.

 

Also, Ivan and Frances in 2004

[TT-SEA]

November-like jet stream later next week:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/200_wnd_ht/gfs_namer_240_200_wnd_ht.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Charley? That was a nasty one, made landfall as a Cat4.

 

FWIW, HiRes 12z GFS takes Matthew inland over NE FL/SE GA as an apparent Cat3. F**k. Almost have to root for a full landfall in FL somewhere to prevent destruction up the coast. Still, my worry is that the core will hug the coast, as small core systems sometimes do given adequate differential friction.

 

Yeah I think Charley and Frances. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

November-like jet stream later next week:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/200_wnd_ht/gfs_namer_240_200_wnd_ht.gif

 

Looks nice. 

[crf450ish]

does anyone have a good link to a real time doppler radar for hurricane Matthew? 

[BLI snowman]

November-like jet stream later next week:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/200_wnd_ht/gfs_namer_240_200_wnd_ht.gif

 

Should be good mountain snows for the WA Cascades.

[Phil]

does anyone have a good link to a real time doppler radar for hurricane Matthew?

Wunderground is decent, but the radarscope app is unbeatable IMO.

[Timmy Supercell]

Wild freezing fog this morning between 7-8am... At first it started out with a thin line just ahead of some hills, then progressed to less than 1/10 mile visibility where my house is minutes later. As KLMT never went below 10.00 miles visibility on observations, evidently some micro-climate stuff going on here. (seriously, "patches of fog", should have taken photos of my place earlier)

[Timmy Supercell]

Should be good mountain snows for the WA Cascades.

 

I hope it doesn't go straight to winter immediately in Klamath. Would like about a months worth of showers here before the season actually kicks in.

[Jbolin]

Video like this are what give me second thoughts. This was taken during hurricane Andrew in 1992. Apparently this was on the weaker side of the eyewall..can't imagine how bad it was on the north side.

 

 

I can, I lived through Andrew in Homestead.

 

Barely 

[Jbolin]

Yeah I think Charley and Frances. 

Charley was in '05 

[Front Ranger]

I know the topography of that area like the back of my hand. Experienced a bunch of storms there...Fay, Floyd, Tammy, even the outer bands of Katrina. I usually head down there when a hurricane threatens, and given its a tiny town, everyond knows me as that crazy hurricane guy.

 

That said, I have never experienced a storm quite like this one, though, so that's the only reason I'm hesitant. My usual chasing partners (gf and cousin) refuse to go with me this time, and I don't like chasing alone.

 

Hurricane Floyd was 1999. Weren't you like 6 or 7 then? And I have trouble picturing you flying down as a 12 or 13 year old in 2005 to chase Tammy and Katrina...

[BLI snowman]

Hurricane Floyd was 1999. Weren't you like 6 or 7 then? And I have trouble picturing you flying down as a 12 or 13 year old in 2005 to chase Tammy and Katrina...

 

I believe he also chased Andrew from the womb, got some good footage.

[BLI snowman]

Sunday/Monday looks like quite a nice rain event for SW BC and NW WA. All models showing 2-4" totals.

[stuffradio]

12Z GFS OP shows me getting around 7" by Tuesday, and more than that in the long range. I'm getting some heavy downpours right now.

[Chewbacca Defense]

I'm probably driving down to Saint Simons today, booked a hotel room and everything. If that area is going under, I'm going under with it.

 

If you go and are able to snap some before/after pictures up East Beach way, I would love to see them.  I went there every summer as a kid, and we rented a house on 13th St, one or 2 houses back from the beach.  I've gone back for a couple of family reunions there as an adult (and after I moved out West) and we stayed in an A-frame house right on the beach that was on 12th st...

 

One of our favorite things to do as kids was to walk the beach and look at how it changed.  Looking at Google Maps, the rock wall along that section of beach appears to be buried, and there is not much in the way of sand dunes.....not good...

[Phil]

Hurricane Floyd was 1999. Weren't you like 6 or 7 then? And I have trouble picturing you flying down as a 12 or 13 year old in 2005 to chase Tammy and Katrina...

Yeah, I was down there as a kid during Floyd, and traveled down with extended family during the other two. We had a place down there until 2010.

[Phil]

If you go and are able to snap some before/after pictures up East Beach way, I would love to see them. I went there every summer as a kid, and we rented a house on 13th St, one or 2 houses back from the beach. I've gone back for a couple of family reunions there as an adult (and after I moved out West) and we stayed in an A-frame house right on the beach that was on 12th st...

 

One of our favorite things to do as kids was to walk the beach and look at how it changed. Looking at Google Maps, the rock wall along that section of beach appears to be buried, and there is not much in the way of sand dunes.....not good...

Similar story here, we fly down every summer. I've been to Saint Simons every year (except one) since I was 4yrs old, so this one is a gut punch. That place is like a second home to me.

 

Unfortunately I chickened out and decided not to go after seeing the latest modeling and reading the JAX warning. Since no one would go with me, I just didn't want to take the risk.