October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

The La Nina has made remarkable progress over the past week.  Looks like a full blown event on the latest maps.  The North Pacific has also made great strides toward a major negative PDO regime.  I wish I knew more about how the extremely low IOD may play into this also.  Unquestionably a dramatic global shift from where we were earlier in the year.

[snow_wizard]

Definitely has the feel of being a fairly dynamic period coming up.

 

Indeed.  I'm much more intrigued about it now than I was a few days ago.

[Deweydog]

Indeed. I'm much more intrigued about it now than I was a few days ago.

Looked pretty dynamic a few days ago too.

[snow_wizard]

Looked pretty dynamic a few days ago too.

 

It just wasn't what I wanted, but obviously there is more than one path that will work for us.

[Phil]

No doubt the whole things reeks of a sharp reversal when it happens. Could be a season of 500mb acrobatics.

I'm with you here. I suspect we'll be seeing another multiyear regime change, from the +NAO that's dominated since 2014, towards more of a -NAO, similar to what was observed from 2008-2013.

[Deweydog]

It just wasn't what I wanted, but obviously there is more than one path that will work for us.

I guess I'm not thinking that far ahead.

[Phil]

The La Nina has made remarkable progress over the past week. Looks like a full blown event on the latest maps. The North Pacific has also made great strides toward a major negative PDO regime. I wish I knew more about how the extremely low IOD may play into this also. Unquestionably a dramatic global shift from where we were earlier in the year.

Looks like a mini WWB on the way, however, as Pacific convection increases again.

 

The -IOD usually helps strengthen the Walker Cell/Niña via a consolidation of the WPAC convective maximum and warm pool there. However, it's usually more associated with a higher tropical wavenumber, so unstable ENSOs/neutral PDOs usually juxtapose with the -IOD given the occasional destructive interference out of the WHEM domain(s).

[Jesse]

You guys are two peas in a pod. If he goes you'll probably be on your way to the parking garage with him. Are you willing to make the ultimate sacrifice??? It's gut check time!!!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_equivalence

[Brennan]

Most of them were niggers though. So it's all good!

Sick to my stomach reading this crap.

[ShawniganLake]

0 dead

I think I drove over a frog on the way home from the movies. I thought it was a wind blown leaf until it was too late. So I wouldn't say 0. Watched "Deepwater horizon". I thoroughly enjoyed it. Intense and emotional. My wife cried at the ending. 11 people died.

[Jesse]

Sick to my stomach reading this crap.

Taken way out of context. Illustrating a terrible mentality.

[TT-SEA]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_equivalence

 

 

Sanctimonious.

 

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Sanctimonious

[TT-SEA]

Matthew looking pretty ragged on the HRRR tonight when it is closest to SE GA.    Obviously storm surge is another story and no way of knowing how that pan out.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2016100710/t6/1ref_t6sfc_f18.png

[westcoastexpat]

Really liking the odds right now for cold snaps and snow potential this winter. It's clear that the GoA is behaving much more differently than the last few years--I like our odds heading into winter.

 

GFS advertising some healthy chances for mountain snows in the long range, which is certainly earlier than usual.

 

Jim, correct me if I'm wrong, but haven't some of the more active falls with powerful storms lead to some interesting winters?

 

I think all signals point to a dynamic winter with a variable jet. I don't foresee being locked into any one pattern for a long period of time. Yes, I don't anticipate the PNW being in the deep freeze for weeks on end, but given the last handful of winters, even a cold week would be a victory.  I've read a lot of talk of -AO dominating this winter with -PDO. I think the only factor I can bank on going into at least December is a persistent SE ridge trying to form. It reminds me of the death ridges back in 2013-2015 that fought to build over the PNW... the SE ridge is very stubborn and persistent this year.

[westcoastexpat]

I have to say that I lurk this forum often and prefer to post in the winter, since that is really where my interest lies. Much more interested in synoptic scale dynamics.

 

The passive aggressive digs and baiting on this forum is insane. There is a Canadian forum for the PNW and it's nothing like this. I'd say the only other weather forum that reaches the level on animosity among posters is the New England thread on another site, and ironically enough, it's full of snowstorm weenies! Maybe there's something about cold and snow that really gets the blood pumping, I don't know.

 

Easy solution to the baiting: don't bite. Unless you're going through puberty, there's really no excuse to go off the rails because of some passive aggressive baiting. If you think Tim is baiting Jim (which he is), then don't respond to it. Tim eventually will get bored. But for now, Tim revels in the meltdowns that come with warm weather on this forum; and Jim, honestly, although you can be stubbornly cold optimistic, you have some fabulous insights for pattern recognition that I hope to one day possess. It would make you a great meteorologist, believe me! But maybe keep the disappointment offline...

 

Both Dewey and Phil, you have really good insights, but sometimes it seems that you enjoy the arguing... I wish I saw more posts about the weather from you both rather than tongue sparring. 

 

I love meteorology discussion, but the venom in here is really difficult to stomach.

 

It seems to be an everybody vs. Tim deal. Just put him on ignore if you have an issue. The fact that you don't have Tim on ignore makes you complicit in the bickering, if you know Tim triggers you.

[snow_wizard]

Really liking the odds right now for cold snaps and snow potential this winter. It's clear that the GoA is behaving much more differently than the last few years--I like our odds heading into winter.

 

GFS advertising some healthy chances for mountain snows in the long range, which is certainly earlier than usual.

 

Jim, correct me if I'm wrong, but haven't some of the more active falls with powerful storms lead to some interesting winters?

 

I think all signals point to a dynamic winter with a variable jet. I don't foresee being locked into any one pattern for a long period of time. Yes, I don't anticipate the PNW being in the deep freeze for weeks on end, but given the last handful of winters, even a cold week would be a victory.  I've read a lot of talk of -AO dominating this winter with -PDO. I think the only factor I can bank on going into at least December is a persistent SE ridge trying to form. It reminds me of the death ridges back in 2013-2015 that fought to build over the PNW... the SE ridge is very stubborn and persistent this year.

 

Excellent insights here!  You are correct that very active autumns are often a good sign.  Years like 1990, 2003, and 2006 are excellent examples of that.

[TT-SEA]

I have to say that I lurk this forum often and prefer to post in the winter, since that is really where my interest lies. Much more interested in synoptic scale dynamics.

 

The passive aggressive digs and baiting on this forum is insane. There is a Canadian forum for the PNW and it's nothing like this. I'd say the only other weather forum that reaches the level on animosity among posters is the New England thread on another site, and ironically enough, it's full of snowstorm weenies! Maybe there's something about cold and snow that really gets the blood pumping, I don't know.

 

Easily solution to the baiting: don't bite. Unless you're going through puberty, there's really no excuse to go off the rails because of some passive aggressive baiting. If you think Tim is baiting Jim (which he is), then don't respond to it. Tim eventually will get bored. But for now, Tim revels in the meltdowns that come with warm weather on this forum; and Jim, honestly, although you can be stubbornly cold optimistic, you have some fabulous insights for pattern recognition that I hope to one day possess. It would make you a great meteorologist, believe me! But maybe keep the disappointment offline...

 

Both Dewey and Phil, you have really good insights, but sometimes it seems that you enjoy the arguing... I wish I saw more posts about the weather from you both rather than tongue sparring. 

 

I love meteorology discussion, but the venom in here is really difficult to stomach.

 

It seems to be an everybody vs. Tim deal. Just put him on ignore if you have an issue. The fact that you don't have Tim on ignore makes you complicit in the bickering, if you know Tim triggers you.

 

 

I have responded to a very tiny percentage of Jim's posts this fall.    I am not irrationally just dismissing everything he says... and I have no ill feelings toward Jim at all.    That seems to anger Jesse even more because he wants me to be irrational and miserable.   Jim does not have me on ignore and has been conversing me with more than ever this year.   

 

And as Matt said... if I was obsessed with cold weather and pointing out errors in warm weather forecasts then Jesse "would not give two sh*ts".  

 

I don't shy away from pointing out model runs that I don't like or when things that go differently than I expected either.     I have no idea what will happen in the future either.   And I am certainly not going to be disrespectful to Jim.    That is not fake in any way.  

[westcoastexpat]

I have responded to a very tiny percentage of Jim's posts this fall.    I am not irrationally just dismissing everything he says... and I have no ill feelings toward Jim at all.    That seems to anger Jesse even more because he wants me to be irrational and miserable.   Jim does not have me on ignore and has been conversing me with more than ever this year.   

 

And as Matt said... if I was obsessed with cold weather and pointing out errors in warm weather forecasts then Jesse "would not give two sh*ts".  

 

I don't shy away from pointing out model runs that I don't like or when things that go differently than I expected either.     I have no idea what will happen in the future either.   And I am certainly not going to be disrespectful to Jim.    That is not fake in any way.  

 

I agree that you have improved dramatically in your posts and have adopted a style that I prefer. Yes, it does come across as disingenuous. Whether you are aware of it or not, it is clear that there are ulterior motives to some of your posts. The timing is telling, that you will post a contrarian model run after Jim mentions cold, or a cloudy model run when Jim mentions clearing at night. If you're telling me that those post just happened to immediately follow Jim's musings, I don't believe you.

 

A lot of posters here seem to prefer that you come out guns blazing and wreak havoc the way you used to, but I don't agree. I prefer you posting images, even if they are contrarian, because you're posting an actual fact. You can't fight fact, and a dose of reality is always healthy in a weather forum. I prefer your more... subtle nature these days because it is more harmonious than it once was. The problem is that the people you're baiting are having a feeding frenzy right now, calling you a fake/phoney/insincere bastard, which is why they should put you on ignore. You're damned if you do, damned if you don't, Tim. I think your reputation will always follow you, regardless of your posting style. And admit it, you have animosity toward a lot of posters (and rightfully so) and struggle to not twist the knife a little when you jab.

 

Word of advice: if you think someone is being fake or disingenuous, turn a blind eye. Who cares? Keep the harmony... it's not all about you. There are many other people here who would like to post more often but are put off by the attacks that fly in here on a regular basis.

 

If you think Tim is playing an innocent dumb act, then why don't you all follow suit? If everyone is acting innocent... then it will be a much more tolerable place

[TT-SEA]

I agree that you have improved dramatically in your posts and have adopted a style that I prefer. Yes, it does come across as disingenuous. Whether you are aware of it or not, it is clear that there are ulterior motives to some of your posts. The timing is telling, that you will post a contrarian model run after Jim mentions cold, or a cloudy model run when Jim mentions clearing at night. If you're telling me that those post just happened to immediately follow Jim's musings, I don't believe you.

 

A lot of posters here seem to prefer that you come out guns blazing and wreak havoc the way you used to, but I don't agree. I prefer you posting images, even if they are contrarian, because you're posting an actual fact. You can't fight fact, and a dose of reality is always healthy in a weather forum. I prefer your more... subtle nature these days because it is more harmonious than it once was. The problem is that the people you're baiting are having a feeding frenzy right now, calling you a fake/phoney/insincere bastard, which is why they should put you on ignore. You're damned if you do, damned if you don't, Tim. I think your reputation will always follow you, regardless of your posting style. And admit it, you have animosity toward a lot of posters (and rightfully so) and struggle to not twist the knife a little when you jab.

 

Word of advice: if you think someone is being fake or disingenuous, turn a blind eye. Who cares? Keep the harmony... it's not all about you. There are many other people here who would like to post more often but are put off by the attacks that fly in here on a regular basis.

 

If you think Tim is playing an innocent dumb act, then why don't you all follow suit? If everyone is acting innocent... then it will be a much more tolerable place

 

 

Great points.

 

And my post following Jim's post about a clear night for example was directly in response to his post.  No hidden agenda.   I quoted him.   The WRF showed it being completely cloudy... and it was correct.   Seems worth mentioning even if it reduces some hope for a couple hours of a clear night.   And sometimes I post with something I think is right in contrast to another post and I end up wrong.   I have been burned enough times to realize a less emphatic approach is much better.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.71" of rain here since midnight.

[westcoastexpat]

Great points.

 

And my post following Jim's post about a clear night for example was directly in response to his post.  No hidden agenda.   I quoted him.   The WRF showed it being completely cloudy... and it was correct.   Seems worth mentioning even if it reduces some hope for a couple hours of a clear night.   And sometimes I post with something I think is right in contrast to another post and I end up wrong.   I have been burned enough times to realize a less emphatic approach is much better.

 

Welcome to forecasting Mother nature is one cold *****. I get burned all the time. Just gotta dust yourself off and be humble... just when I think I've got a good handle on a set up, my forecast goes to . It's a never ending on-the-job training and I love it.

 

Check your egos at the door, boys.

[Jesse]

Great points.

 

And my post following Jim's post about a clear night for example was directly in response to his post. No hidden agenda. I quoted him. The WRF showed it being completely cloudy... and it was correct. Seems worth mentioning even if it reduces some hope for a couple hours of a clear night. And sometimes I post with something I think is right in contrast to another post and I end up wrong. I have been burned enough times to realize a less emphatic approach is much better.

If you really thought he was making good points about this needing to be a more harmonious place, you wouldn't have gone off on that painful "rooting for your team" analogy last night. Such a stupid way of looking at things. I honestly hate constantly feeling like weather is a competition. Those who try to make it that way immediately take it from the realm of something we legitimately all enjoy to something petty and personal. It sucks the fun out of things.

[Jesse]

The sharp little front early Monday morning is looking interesting. The 06z GFS shows a narrow band of tremendously heavy rain moving through down here, followed by clearing skies and cool north winds in the afternoon.

[TT-SEA]

If you really thought he was making good points about this needing to be a more harmonious place, you wouldn't have gone off on that painful "rooting for your team" analogy last night. Such a stupid way of looking at things. I honestly hate constantly feeling like weather is a competition. Those who try to make it that way immediately take it from the realm of something we legitimately all enjoy to something petty and personal. It sucks the fun out of things.

 

 

But its true... the reason we are here is because we have a love a weather and we all have very strong preferences.   Its human nature to compete.   Even when its completely out of our control.

[stuffradio]

If you really thought he was making good points about this needing to be a more harmonious place, you wouldn't have gone off on that painful "rooting for your team" analogy last night. Such a stupid way of looking at things. I honestly hate constantly feeling like weather is a competition. Those who try to make it that way immediately take it from the realm of something we legitimately all enjoy to something petty and personal. It sucks the fun out of things.

Nice day.

[Jesse]

But its true... the reason we are here is because we have a love a weather and we all have very strong preferences. Its human nature to compete. Even when its completely out of our control.

You take it to a different level. I will be the first to admit you have improved in many ways the last few months, but that underlying "twist the knife" instinct beneath a veneer of sugar can be pretty off putting. It's still there, whether or not you admit it. And there's nothing friendly or sportsmanlike about it.

[stuffradio]

Hour 384 is nice.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like Trial Island had winds peak at 72mph last evening. Looks like more in the 40-50 range in the more populated areas. I was in Victoria last night and the streets were covered in twigs and branches.

 

We did end up getting some big SW gusts here overnight. In the 35mph range, which knocked out the power for several hours.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like Trial Island had winds peak at 72mph last evening. Looks like more in the 40-50 range in the more populated areas. I was in Victoria last night and the streets were covered in twigs and branches.

 

We did end up getting some big SW gusts here overnight. In the 35mph range, which knocked out the power for several hours.

 

This has been a pretty impressive windstorm for Victoria. Strong SE winds flipping to SW this morning. I was expecting it to die down a bit earlier but it's still gusting. The sky looks amazing this morning with sun and multiple levels of clouds ripping along in the wind. Not much in terms of rain however, the heaviest of it went further north and ended pretty early. The forecast weekend rains for the region are slipping too, from over 3" forecast yesterday to less than 1" today. We haven't been able to get over 0.5" in a single event here since last winter.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is still trending even more progressive with the system over the weekend.     Really interesting how the models latched onto this idea and are still playing catch up.

 

More progressive is a good thing in terms of less rain.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS actually pushes the front completely through up here on Sunday... much drier than the 00Z run.    I hope the trend continues even a little more.

 

Remember even yesterday the models were showing copious rain in SW BC and the NW interior over the weekend and now its much farther south and moving south faster.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_060_precip_p03.gif

[Jesse]

I really like seeing the northern jet flex its muscles over the southern jet. Any time of year.

[Phil]

I have to say that I lurk this forum often and prefer to post in the winter, since that is really where my interest lies. Much more interested in synoptic scale dynamics.

 

The passive aggressive digs and baiting on this forum is insane. There is a Canadian forum for the PNW and it's nothing like this. I'd say the only other weather forum that reaches the level on animosity among posters is the New England thread on another site, and ironically enough, it's full of snowstorm weenies! Maybe there's something about cold and snow that really gets the blood pumping, I don't know.

 

Easy solution to the baiting: don't bite. Unless you're going through puberty, there's really no excuse to go off the rails because of some passive aggressive baiting. If you think Tim is baiting Jim (which he is), then don't respond to it. Tim eventually will get bored. But for now, Tim revels in the meltdowns that come with warm weather on this forum; and Jim, honestly, although you can be stubbornly cold optimistic, you have some fabulous insights for pattern recognition that I hope to one day possess. It would make you a great meteorologist, believe me! But maybe keep the disappointment offline...

 

Both Dewey and Phil, you have really good insights, but sometimes it seems that you enjoy the arguing... I wish I saw more posts about the weather from you both rather than tongue sparring.

 

I love meteorology discussion, but the venom in here is really difficult to stomach.

 

It seems to be an everybody vs. Tim deal. Just put him on ignore if you have an issue. The fact that you don't have Tim on ignore makes you complicit in the bickering, if you know Tim triggers you.

Honestly no offense, but this seems fake to me (believe me I would know). Almost like you think you've found an opportunity to form an alliance and/or win over some hearts and minds, and you're doing it under the guise of objectivity.

 

Not trying to attack you here. Maybe I'm wrong.

[ShawniganLake]

12Z GFS is still trending even more progressive with the system over the weekend. Really interesting how the models latched onto this idea and are still playing catch up.

 

More progressive is a good thing in terms of less rain.

What were your Euro precip maps showing in comparison? It sucks that wundermap no longer offers them.

[Phil]

Excellent insights here! You are correct that very active autumns are often a good sign. Years like 1990, 2003, and 2006 are excellent examples of that.

I think 2010 is by far the best match to the ongoing pattern. If it were included in the CPC analogs, it'd be dominating.

 

If that January pattern were tweaked just a tad, you'd have scored in every month that winter except December (opposite of recent trends).

[TT-SEA]

What were your Euro precip maps showing in comparison? It sucks that wundermap no longer offers them.

 

 

Really sucks... that is the reason I had to sign up for WeatherBell.

 

The ECMWF was the first to latch onto the idea in general... but it has been playing serious catch up as well.   The 00Z run Wednesday kept the precip band over Vancouver Island and SW BC through Monday.   It started a clear southward trend on the two runs yesterday.   Suspect the 12Z run will be even faster.  

[luminen]

Hey guys we're almost into fog/inversion season. 

[Phil]

Jacksonville Beach at low tide. Already getting overwash on the dunes.

 

http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/jacksonville-beach-pier-florida_5315/

[ShawniganLake]

I think 2010 is by far the best match to the ongoing pattern. If it were included in the CPC analogs, it'd be dominating.

 

If that January pattern were tweaked just a tad, you'd have scored in every month that winter except December (opposite of recent trends).

FWIW this October is looking like it will end up wetter and possibly stormier than 2010.

[Phil]

FWIW this October is looking like it will end up wetter and possibly stormier than 2010.

Looks like a more amplified version of 2010. Height anomaly pattern is almost a perfect match..can't find anything closer all the way back to the 1800s:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/62E0F8B9-6168-40B0-B3E9-059C7BCAE689_zpsriwuifw2.jpg