October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Yeah...have to tip my hat to the EPS guidance again as it caught onto this pattern days ago. 12z ECMWF/EPS top out at 69 tomorrow as well.

 

If PDX can make it through tomorrow without hitting 70 (and if current guidance holds) it would really increase the odds of not seeing a 70º day in the month of October since...1949.

 

Edit: Sorry, just saw Dewey already noted this!

Yup! We just may be able to slide by.

 

I'm guessing Mark isn't doing the forecast tonight, since the new 7-day really doesn't capture the cooling shift in the models at all.

[Kayla]

Yup! We just may be able to slide by.

 

I'm guessing Mark isn't doing the forecast tonight, since the new 7-day really doesn't capture the cooling shift in the models at all.

 

Mark doesn't work Friday nights anymore... He's on a Sunday-Thursday schedule currently.

[TT-SEA]

69 at PDX tomorrow... take it to the bank!

[Jesse]

Mark doesn't work Friday nights anymore... He's

 

on a Sunday-Thursday schedule currently.

Aha, that makes sense.

 

NWS is a bit behind too. They are still going with highs around 70 on Sunday. That is starting to look like a rainy 60-65 day to me.

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS is even more aggressive on Sunday. PDX might stay below 60 that day. I would LOVE to see an arctic front behave like this in the models this winter.

[Kayla]

Aha, that makes sense.

 

NWS is a bit behind too. They are still going with highs around 70 on Sunday. That is starting to look like a rainy 60-65 day to me.

 

Yeah, definitely looking like a wet day now. Mets have been a bit slow to react to the guidance shift today.

 

The 12z ECMWF has nearly 8" of rainfall at PDX over the next 10 days... Impressive!

[ShawniganLake]

18Z GFS is even more aggressive on Sunday. PDX might stay below 60 that day. I would LOVE to see an arctic front behave like this in the models this winter.

850s actually drop to 0C here behind the front. Maybe a couple of clear chilly nights early next week.

[Phil]

Jim said I was lucky because it was warmer than it would seem looking at the 500mb anomaly map.

 

I told you a million times that I forecasted July to be warmer than normal based on local history. I assumed that meant ridgy. But it really probably meant that the Puget Sound region has a tendency to be warmer with weak upper level troughiness in the summer due to a lack of an inversion. August was actually ridgy overall.

Eh, first you forecasted a "blowtorch" July, then "warm and ridgy overall", then by mid-month it was "warm at SEA based on local history". You should be thankful he's giving you any credit at all, actually.

 

As for August, you were originally forecasting it to be cool and troughy (as was I, myself). Then you flip-flopped a few times until the warmth showed up for a few weeks. Again, should you even be getting credit here? Hmmm....

 

Then, for September, you called for warmth and ridging to resume after the 7th. This one was kinda cringeworthy, because you kept doubling down until it was all but certain.

 

So yeah, I think Jim has a point.

[TT-SEA]

Eh, first you forecasted a "blowtorch" July, then "warm and ridgy overall", then by mid-month it was "warm at SEA based on local history".

 

As for August, you were originally forecasting it to be cool and troughy (as was I, myself). Then you flip-flopped a few times until the warmth showed up for a few weeks.

 

Then, for September, you called for warmth and ridging to resume after the 7th. Yikes.

 

So, yeah, I think Jim has a point.

Jim has point because it was warmer than the 500mb pattern would indicate. That is all.

 

The last 22 days of September were sunny and above normal here. But I don't remember ever making a serious forecast for September.

[Phil]

Jim has point because it was warmer than the 500mb pattern would indicate. That is all.

 

The last 22 days of September were sunny and above normal here. But I don't remember ever making a serious forecast for September.

Everyone here remembers your overconfident September proclaimations, so denying it only hurts your case.

 

Come on.

[snow_wizard]

Amazing how the cool period early next week has gone from just a slight possibility to reality.  Each run continues to get cooler.  It's also interesting how far east the trough axis is at day 10 on the ECMWF.  A cool October is still possible.

 

[TT-SEA]

Everyone here remembers your overconfident September proclaimations, so denying it only hurts your case.

 

Come on.

I don't remember proclamations about September at all. I know the last 22 days were sunny and warmer than normal here overall. It was nice.

[TT-SEA]

Amazing how the cool period early next week has gone from just a slight possibility to reality. Each run continues to get cooler. It's also interesting how far east the trough axis is at day 10 on the ECMWF. A cool October is still possible.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

Man I would love to see this continue all winter where things trend colder.

 

Looking at my winter pics from 2010-11 got me pretty excited.

[Front Ranger]

2009 could have been an historically cold October for us, had the mean pattern set up just a few hundred miles further west.

 

Yes, it was historically cold for much of the middle of the country.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.98" of rain since midnight. 

[Phil]

10mb PV remains weaker than normal. Somewhat unusual for the modern era, even in a -QBO.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/092995F3-CF12-42D2-8E9C-614EEC219A70_zpski0dq5e9.png

[Phil]

I'm finding some very interesting correlations between the October NAM and subsequent winters during -ENSO. Will follow up later, but this could be a top-5 -NAM October.

[Trainwreck]

I'm finding some very interesting correlations between the October NAM and subsequent winters during -ENSO. Will follow up later, but this could be a top-5 -NAM October.

Ok I get it. Are you Mark Nelsen? You live on the east coast, you love the northwest, have done things only a northwesterner had done, maybe you're Mark, maybe not, are you High Desert Mat??

[Phil]

Ok I get it. Are you Mark Nelsen? You live on the east coast, you love the northwest, have done things only a northwesterner had done, maybe you're Mark, maybe not, are you High Desert Mat??

I'm your doppelgänger, actually.

[Weather101]

I'm your doppelgänger, actually.

Why do you love our weather so much?

[Phil]

Why do you love our weather so much?

I love all weather equally. You know, diversity and what not.

[TT-SEA]

00Z still more aggressive... front might even clear Portland by the afternoon.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_048_precip_p03.gif

[MossMan]

00Z still more aggressive... front might even clear Portland by the afternoon.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_048_precip_p03.gif

So my family and I might have a fighting chance of not becoming soggy moss filled piles of muddy goo if we go to the pumpkin patch tomorrow now?

[TT-SEA]

So my family and I might have a fighting chance of not becoming soggy moss filled piles of muddy goo if we go to the pumpkin patch tomorrow now?

 

Tomorrow does not look good north of Seattle.   Sunday is much better everywhere.

[MossMan]

Tomorrow does not look good north of Seattle. Sunday is much better everywhere.

Gotcha, looks like I will be cramming everything into Sunday then. Better than a total washout weekend I suppose.

[TT-SEA]

Gotcha, looks like I will be cramming everything into Sunday then. Better than a total washout weekend I suppose.

 

 

Sunday will probably be sunny for the Seattle area northward.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/intcld.48.0000.gif

[Jesse]

00Z GFS shows the warm front sitting just north of Portland most of tomorrow afternoon, with thick clouds and drizzle likely. 70 may be in jeopardy.

[epiceast]

I hope it trends another 100 miles south!

[TT-SEA]

500MB acrobatics?

 

216 hours:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_216_500_vort_ht.gif

 

 

288 hours:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_288_500_vort_ht.gif

[Deweydog]

500MB acrobatics?

 

216 hours:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_216_500_vort_ht.gif

 

 

288 hours:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_288_500_vort_ht.gif

Jimbulous!

[Phil]

500MB acrobatics?

 

216 hours:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_216_500_vort_ht.gif

 

 

288 hours:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_288_500_vort_ht.gif

That's one heck of a cyclonic wave-break over the NPAC. The last several EPS runs have also been hinting at it, FWIW.

[Weather101]

Usher killed it tonite

[snow_wizard]

I can't believe how chilly the situation on Sunday / Monday has trended.  This run shows thicknesses falling almost to 540 over Seattle with 850s dropping to 0C at one point.  Nice to see the northern branch perform so much more strongly than expected on previous runs.  The Puget Sound area may actually manage some below normal temps out of this!

[stuffradio]

Rainfall warning issued locally for up to 4" of rain by Sunday morning sometime.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF is going for the first frost of the season for some places Monday night.  That model rarely overstates such things.  Quite frankly I wouldn't be surprised to see cold readings Sunday night.

[Jesse]

Wow, the 00Z GFS is a huge outlier in the long range. That ridge is off by itself.

[snow_wizard]

Totally incredible how much the outlook for next week has changed since a few days ago.  The new GFS ensemble only has a small fraction of the amount of above normal temperatures now.  Very intriguing indeed.

[TT-SEA]

The WRF is going for the first frost of the season for some places Monday night.  That model rarely overstates such things.  Quite frankly I wouldn't be surprised to see cold readings Sunday night.

 

 

Nature is trying to make you feel better... now that all hope is lost that your beloved Trump will be president.  

[snow_wizard]

Wow, the 00Z GFS is a huge outlier in the long range. That ridge is off by itself.

 

A good number of ensemble members take the 850s below zero during week 2.  Shaping up to be a VERY interesting ride this month.  I don't think I can ever recall seeing a pattern like we will have this weekend so early in the season before.

[TT-SEA]

A good number of ensemble members take the 850s below zero during week 2.  Shaping up to be a VERY interesting ride this month.  I don't think I can ever recall seeing a pattern like we will have this weekend so early in the season before.

 

 

Do you mean the 500mb pattern?