October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Farmboy]

Not sure what, if any, significance this has, but you know how animals/birds can act strange/differently before big storms?  Well, I was just doing some yard work and somewhere between 50-70 crows were creating quite a commotion, circling about and making a lot of noise.  This lasted for about 3 or 4 minutes, then abruptly stopped...  Weird, I always sort of thought crows were solitary creatures...

[stuffradio]

Not sure what, if any, significance this has, but you know how animals/birds can act strange/differently before big storms?  Well, I was just doing some yard work and somewhere between 50-70 crows were creating quite a commotion, circling about and making a lot of noise.  This lasted for about 3 or 4 minutes, then abruptly stopped...  Weird, I always sort of thought crows were solitary creatures...

Could have been something that was killed below where they were circling.

[Phil]

Not sure what, if any, significance this has, but you know how animals/birds can act strange/differently before big storms? Well, I was just doing some yard work and somewhere between 50-70 crows were creating quite a commotion, circling about and making a lot of noise. This lasted for about 3 or 4 minutes, then abruptly stopped... Weird, I always sort of thought crows were solitary creatures...

Weird. Same exact thing happened here (mob of birds) just before hurricane Sandy hit. Didn't think much of it until it happened again before our windstorm last April.

 

I think there's even some literature on the behavior of birds before cyclones. Haha.

[wx_statman]

Landfall along the coastline would be great to insure strong winds but even the Columbus Day Storm didn't make landfall until Tatoosh Island. As long as it takes the classic path then everybody west of the Cascades is in endanger of seeing hurricane force wind gusts.

 

No, that would be the case for a warm-core tropical cyclone. For maximum winds in the Willamette Valley, you need a deep low pressure moving up (parallel to) the coastline inside of 127-130W with rapid pressure rises behind. Exactly like the Columbus Day storm. This is by no means guaranteed for next Saturday and most of the models seem to reflect that. 

[westcoastexpat]

IMO, NAM seems to be the more likely track. We'll see though of course.

 

I'm leaning toward the GGEM right now... it's been the most consistent overall.

[Deweydog]

Landfall along the coastline would be great to insure strong winds but even the Columbus Day Storm didn't make landfall until Tatoosh Island. As long as it takes the classic path then everybody west of the Cascades is in endanger of seeing hurricane force wind gusts.

 

Landfall is actually pretty irrelevant. The biggest factors for strong valley winds are gradients and their alignment.  A doomsday wind scenario is exactly what occurred with the CDS; an enormous, cold offshore trough creating a breeding ground and SSW flow infused with typhoon remnants.  We have a similar pattern coming up, hence the explosive development on the models, but right now it appears the steering flow will be far too westerly.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

500-1000mb thickness falls to 528 in the long range on the 18z GFS. Me like. 

[Tundra]

Not sure what, if any, significance this has, but you know how animals/birds can act strange/differently before big storms?  Well, I was just doing some yard work and somewhere between 50-70 crows were creating quite a commotion, circling about and making a lot of noise.  This lasted for about 3 or 4 minutes, then abruptly stopped...  Weird, I always sort of thought crows were solitary creatures...

Weird. Same exact thing happened here (mob of birds) just before hurricane Sandy hit. Didn't think much of it until it happened again before our windstorm last April.

 

I think there's even some literature on the behavior of birds before cyclones. Haha.

 

That must be a good sign then of something big coming our way.

[Tundra]

No, that would be the case for a warm-core tropical cyclone. For maximum winds in the Willamette Valley, you need a deep low pressure moving up (parallel to) the coastline inside of 127-130W with rapid pressure rises behind. Exactly like the Columbus Day storm. This is by no means guaranteed for next Saturday and most of the models seem to reflect that. 

Landfall is actually pretty irrelevant. The biggest factors for strong valley winds are gradients and their alignment.  A doomsday wind scenario is exactly what occurred with the CDS; an enormous, cold offshore trough creating a breeding ground and SSW flow infused with typhoon remnants.  We have a similar pattern coming up, hence the explosive development on the models, but right now it appears the steering flow will be far too westerly.  

 

The EURO must be seeing something the other models aren't. We are getting close to inside 3 days now and if the EURO is wrong then that would be surprising. All eyes on tonight's models.

[westcoastexpat]

The EURO must be seeing something the other models aren't. We are getting close to inside 3 days now and if the EURO is wrong then that would be surprising. All eyes on tonight's models.

 

But maybe the GFS, NAM and GGEM are all seeing things that the Euro isn't? I mean, we're getting close to inside 3 days now and all 3 models are in agreement... it would be surprising if they were wrong -- no?

[seattleweatherguy]

Thursday/Friday storm based on the 12Z GFS looks pretty great for Seattle. I'd say 60 mph gusts are very much attainable.

Nice, is this still the case and whats going on Saturday? Models change all the time and I find not accurate even at a 3 day window.

[Tundra]

But maybe the GFS, NAM and GGEM are all seeing things that the Euro isn't? I mean, we're getting close to inside 3 days now and all 3 models are in agreement... it would be surprising if they were wrong -- no?

 

You have a point but I consider the EURO to be a superior model than any of those and sometimes it sees a solution that takes the other models a while to follow. Something has to give tonight, either the EURO or the other models.

[westcoastexpat]

Nice, is this still the case and whats going on Saturday? Models change all the time and I find not accurate even at a 3 day window.

 

Instability is a bit weaker it seems on the 18Z suite for the Thurs/Fri system... I'd say 35 mph gusts up near Bellingham/Vancouver area.. Seattle more like 50 mph.. Portland around 40 mph gusts.

 

Saturday, to me, seems like 50 mph gusts for Seattle-Vancouver corridor and 40 mph gusts for Portland area.

[Kayla]

But maybe the GFS, NAM and GGEM are all seeing things that the Euro isn't? I mean, we're getting close to inside 3 days now and all 3 models are in agreement... it would be surprising if they were wrong -- no?

 

Doesn't matter how many different models agree with each other if the Euro isn't on board. Time and time again the Euro has proven to be the most accurate model. Could it be wrong this time? Of course it could be, but it's far too accurate of a model to say it's just an outlier.

 

I understand that the more Northwesterly track of the GFS/GEM is the most likely and climatological scenario but the ending track has a lot to do with the development and the rapid cyclogenesis timing before centrifugal force pulls it North. As DJ has mentioned, it's quite possible that the ECMWF has a better handle on the development and timing of the low.

[Kayla]

Instability is a bit weaker it seems on the 18Z suite for the Thurs/Fri system... I'd say 35 mph gusts up near Bellingham/Vancouver area.. Seattle more like 50 mph.. Portland around 40 mph gusts.

 

Saturday, to me, seems like 50 mph gusts for Seattle-Vancouver corridor and 40 mph gusts for Portland area.

 

Even the GFS has stronger winds than that on Saturday...

[westcoastexpat]

Even the GFS has stronger winds than that on Saturday...

 

You're right, sorry, I was reading knots. More like 45-50 mph gusts

[Thunder98]

Why is Central and Northern Idaho wetter than Central and Eastern Washington?

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1476318874

[snow_wizard]

A bit puzzling why the NWS has a high wind warning for tommorow evening.  It just doesn't look like it to me given the WRF is pretty unimpressive and the ECMWF takes the low too far offshore / north.

[Guest happ]

Why is Central and Northern Idaho wetter than Central and Eastern Washington?

 

 

Perhaps rain shadow effect

[Deweydog]

A bit puzzling why the NWS has a high wind warning for tommorow evening. It just doesn't look like it to me given the WRF is pretty unimpressive and the ECMWF takes the low too far offshore / north.

They seem to be hammering home the fact free damage may be more significant as most still have their clothes on.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS Ensembles
HR 72
Quite concerning

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTWIDE_18z/f72.gif

[crf450ish]

You should go back in the archives to the Dec 2008 madness...so fun!!!!

I can't find the archives....

 

 

EDIT: Nvm, I'm on them right now. 

[crf450ish]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/west/nhem/weus/wv.html

[snow_wizard]

I LOVE the 18z for the final third of the run.  Exactly what I hoped to see this month.

[westcoastexpat]

 

For Thurs/Fri system as per NWS

[snow_wizard]

18z GFS Ensembles

HR 72

Quite concerning

 

This one will be interesting to watch.  I'm very impressed how the CPC analogs were frequently showing Oct 1962 as being a match to the pattern we are about to get into.  Now we have a typhoon getting entrained into the westerlies just like that year.  As always it will come down to fine details.

[snow_wizard]

Screen Shot 2016-10-12 at 9.31.56 PM.png

 

For Thurs/Fri system as per NWS

 

I figured it would be more of an Everett northward affair.  Might be a meso low east of the Olympics.  My area gets pretty much nothing with scenarios like this.

[snow_wizard]

Holy sheeit!

 

The GFS ensemble has the PNA dropping to -4 later in the month while the ECMWF ensemble has it dropping to -3.  I am in disbelief how perfectly everything is lining up for a good winter this time.  October cold snaps in cold ENSO seasons is about the best sign there is for a cold winter.

[TT-SEA]

I figured it would be more of an Everett northward affair.  Might be a meso low east of the Olympics.  My area gets pretty much nothing with scenarios like this.

 

Oh darn!   

 

I don't think either of us mind missing out on a windstorm.  

 

I also don't think we are going to luck out on Saturday evening.

[crf450ish]

Holy sheeit!

 

The GFS ensemble has the PNA dropping to -4 later in the month while the ECMWF ensemble has it dropping to -3.  I am in disbelief how perfectly everything is lining up for a good winter this time.  October cold snaps in cold ENSO seasons is about the best sign there is for a cold winter.

When is the last time you seen the stars align in October?

[Phil]

Holy sheeit!

 

The GFS ensemble has the PNA dropping to -4 later in the month while the ECMWF ensemble has it dropping to -3. I am in disbelief how perfectly everything is lining up for a good winter this time. October cold snaps in cold ENSO seasons is about the best sign there is for a cold winter.

What if the -PNA continues/strengthens into November, as it looks to do?

 

The -EAMT and subsequent NPAC jet retraction next week should get that classic +QBO NPAC high going strong next month.

[Perturbed Member]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016101300/namconus_ref_frzn_us_48.png

 

00z NAM at first glance appears to be further south and east with the Saturday system.

 

It isn't as deep so it gets more time to move towards the coast. Seems more Euro like to me.

[Deweydog]

NAM is definitely a more favorable track, weaker with the low.

[Perturbed Member]

Low never really gets below 970mb on the NAM even though the track is now in agreement with the euro.  I'll take it I guess. 

[Farmboy]

Holy sheeit!

 

The GFS ensemble has the PNA dropping to -4 later in the month while the ECMWF ensemble has it dropping to -3.  I am in disbelief how perfectly everything is lining up for a good winter this time.  October cold snaps in cold ENSO seasons is about the best sign there is for a cold winter.

This does my heart good to hear this..  Hopefully we see more good signals lining up...

[Tundra]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016101300/namconus_ref_frzn_us_48.png

 

00z NAM at first glance appears to be further south and east with the Saturday system.

 

It isn't as deep so it gets more time to move towards the coast. Seems more Euro like to me.

NAM is definitely a more favorable track, weaker with the low.

Yeah, the newest edition of the 00z NAM definitely trended towards the EURO. Now it's the GFS and GEMs turn. Positive steps in the right direction.

[snow_wizard]

What if the -PNA continues/strengthens into November, as it looks to do?

 

The -EAMT and subsequent NPAC jet retraction next week should get that classic +QBO NPAC high going strong next month.

 

I would like to see a mild November after an October cold snap.  Sometimes we get a cold period that begins in October and extends a ways into November and that still works out well.  The last update of the ECMWF weeklies looked pretty mild for November, but those have been dubious lately.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Wizard!

[snow_wizard]

This does my heart good to hear this..  Hopefully we see more good signals lining up...

 

The biggy has been the persistent GOA ridge since mid June.  The fact it is slated to return yet again later in the month is extremely encouraging.  The persistent SE US ridge is also a very good sign.  There are many other favorable things going on also.

[snow_wizard]

I'm still very doubtful about the winds the NWS is talking about tomorrow night.  Certainly not much for the East Puget Sound lowlands IMO.