October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

SEA has set a daily record for rainfall today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

OK....

 

I was more excited about the deep negative PNA anyway.  Still looks like it's on to me.

 

Unlike some other posters I do not mean it as a personal insult. Just a little teasing. Some decent GFS ensemble members...Not getting my hopes up. 

[crf450ish]

It has been raining non stop at my place today. From the light shower type rain to the torrential downpour in bursts. I don't have a rain gauge so I cannot say how much has fell....

[snow_wizard]

Unlike some other posters I do not mean it as a personal insult. Just a little teasing. Some decent GFS ensemble members...Not getting my hopes up. 

 

Fair enough.

 

It is worth noting the ECMWF and GFS composites both show the PNA and EPO both going minus later in the month.  Nice combo.  I'm betting we will be seeing more runs like yesterday's 18z over the next few days.

[snow_wizard]

It has been raining non stop at my place today. From the light shower type rain to the torrential downpour in bursts. I don't have a rain gauge so I cannot say how much has fell....

 

You should get yourself an all weather rain gauge.  It's a three piece unit that has an outer and an inner cylinder with a removable top.  Awesome units for the money.  You can find them on eBay.  No beating analog rain gauges unless you want to spend a fortune.  The electronic ones go bad over time.  You can also use the all weather gauge for measuring snow water equivalent.

[snow_wizard]

I'm still totally unsure about the wind event on Saturday.  If current projections hold I would guess something between Dec 1995 and Dec 2006 for the Seattle area.  I still can't get over what a bust the 1995 event was for this area considering the extreme strength of the storm.

[IbrChris]

I think I mentioned this last night, but the 00z ECMWF was truly a textbook W/S gradient/sting jet, in my opinion. Perfect timing and location of the low within the typical seclusion/occlusion cycle.

 

Though, mesoscale meteorology isn't my strong suit, so maybe IbrChris or Black Hole can correct me here.

Believe we tend to call it the "bent-back occlusion" in the US...also affectionately called the "poisonous tail" by mets.

 

Though on closer examination the "sting jet" appears to coincide with the initial period of frontolysis (which I assume is the occlusion phase as the cold front overtakes the warm front and the thermal gradient across the resultant occluded front decreases). Here's a lengthy slide presentation on extratropical cyclone lifecycle including sting jet formation and discussion of the bent-back occlusion (extending to the W-SW of the low center)

 

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/8-PresidentsDayStormColloquium_Schultz.pdf

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah I need a manual rain gauge bad. Mine broke about a year ago (Had water in it that froze and cracked while I was in Oklahoma for the holidays). Have an automatic gauge now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cape Meares on the Oregon Coast (El 1400') just gusted to 103mph

[TT-SEA]

I'm still totally unsure about the wind event on Saturday.  If current projections hold I would guess something between Dec 1995 and Dec 2006 for the Seattle area.  I still can't get over what a bust the 1995 event was for this area considering the extreme strength of the storm.

 

 

Trajectory wrong in 1995?  

 

You have been harboring those feeling for 21 years?   When are you going to get over it?   I hope you find peace.  

 

This should not be like 2006 for us... that one came in from the west and passed directly to our north.   Much more likely to blast the east Puget Sound lowlands with the 2006 track.   

[westcoastexpat]

00Z NAM ticks north ever so slightly, with Saturday's low ending up crashing into central Van Is as opposed to southern Van Is as it did in its 18Z run.

[Jbolin]

00Z NAM ticks north ever so slightly, with Saturday's low ending up crashing into central Van Is as opposed to southern Van Is as it did in its 18Z run.

The NAM is crap and we all know it, GFS/ECMWF will lead the way tonight

[IbrChris]

00Z NAM ticks north ever so slightly, with Saturday's low ending up crashing into central Van Is as opposed to southern Van Is as it did in its 18Z run.

Nice, that trend if it becomes reality will mean much less wind in Portland. We all know the tendency is for these systems to end up curving further north than modeled, more often than not.

[bainbridgekid]

00Z NAM ticks north ever so slightly, with Saturday's low ending up crashing into central Van Is as opposed to southern Van Is as it did in its 18Z run.

It also spins tonight's low around the Northern tip of Vancouver Island into tomorrow and basically never brings it ashore. Looks way less windy tonight.

[westcoastexpat]

Cape Meares on the Oregon Coast (El 1400') just gusted to 103mph

 

Wicked. Looks like 850 mb winds are reaching the surface. Kind of surprised given the lack of instability, but there's no surface inversion to combat at the moment. Never underestimate the power of cyclogenesis... turbulent mixing can win out when you least expect it.

[crf450ish]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/avn-l.jpg

[Timmy Supercell]

Thought Oregon past Portland was going to be spared. For Sat

 

Not at all. Maybe the lowlands in SW Oregon don't get much for wind, but NWS has had a High Wind Watch for most of the east sides in southern Oregon for Saturday. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I really do not want a big wind storm. But it is kind of annoying seeing how everyone hypes these things up so much and they almost always bust. 

[seattleweatherguy]

Not at all. Maybe the lowlands in SW Oregon don't get much for wind, but NWS has had a High Wind Watch for most of the east sides in southern Oregon for Saturday.

Medford considered in high wind?

[wx_statman]

Cape Meares on the Oregon Coast (El 1400') just gusted to 103mph

Megler Hill 71g94 at 1,189 feet...

[FroYoBro]

Pretty impressive page count for 13 days of October. 

[Tundra]

Wow, wind speeds are really over achieving with today's Storm. This can only mean good things that Saturday's Sou'Wester can even be more powerful than what is currently expected!

[snow_wizard]

Wicked. Looks like 850 mb winds are reaching the surface. Kind of surprised given the lack of instability, but there's no surface inversion to combat at the moment. Never underestimate the power of cyclogenesis... turbulent mixing can win out when you least expect it.

 

I'm quite surprised too.  The track of the storm seems pretty unfavorable for winds that high anywhere.

[snow_wizard]

I really do not want a big wind storm. But it is kind of annoying seeing how everyone hypes these things up so much and they almost always bust. 

 

I agree.  I'm tired of wind.  We get plenty of east wind events here, but most people don't see that.

[westcoastexpat]

I'm quite surprised too.  The track of the storm seems pretty unfavorable for winds that high anywhere.

 

Although the station is kind of in a prime spot. Winds are perpendicular to the coast line, first piece of land those winds hit after that long fetch. Plus the higher elevation surely helps. But we always knew the coast was going to get rocked this week.

[Timmy Supercell]

Medford considered in high wind?

 

Last I checked Medford is in an advisory. I don't expect them to break 50 at peak. Here I could surpass gusts I had last few years in the area.

[FroYoBro]

Wow, wind speeds are really over achieving with today's Storm. This can only mean good things that Saturday's Sou'Wester can even be more powerful than what is currently expected!

 

You are going to have trouble here. 

[bainbridgekid]

MM5-NAM has 968mb over Port Angeles at hour 51 on a track through Vancouver, BC.

 

That'd be pretty much a worse-case-scenario for Seattle and much of Western WA.

 

https://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?mm5d2_e_ww_wgsfc+///1

 

I'd still put my money on a Central Vancouver Island landfall when all is said and done though. The NW shift of a low undergoing bombogenesis seems to work like clockwork.

[snow_wizard]

Wow, wind speeds are really over achieving with today's Storm. This can only mean good things that Saturday's Sou'Wester can even be more powerful than what is currently expected!

 

You never know.  Wind storms almost always end up being surprising.  I'll never forget the extreme hype over the Dec 1995 event in the Seattle area.  It was almost a total dud here, but Portland got some big winds with it.  That event should have been bigger here looking at the track and the numbers, but it just flopped.

[TT-SEA]

You never know.  Wind storms almost always end up being surprising.  I'll never forget the extreme hype over the Dec 1995 event in the Seattle area.  It was almost a total dud here, but Portland got some big winds with it.  That event should have been bigger here looking at the track and the numbers, but it just flopped.

 

 

I like to hear this news... given the track looks very similar to 1995 but probably with a weaker storm.

[Phil]

I just did some more digging on this. Apparently the 179 mph gust at Cape Blanco came from a NWS assessment of the damaged anemometer.

 

https://books.google.com/books?id=SV229set7RIC&pg=PA236&lpg=PA236&dq=cape+blanco+179+mph+1962&source=bl&ots=jacjdYkFR3&sig=zJf5HtBaU-ttsnsHGsapljHIm0E&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjr3KzVktnPAhVI3mMKHd3BBNgQ6AEIUzAJ#v=onepage&q=cape%20blanco%20179%20mph%201962&f=false

 

According to multiple sources online the anemometer failed at 145 mph.

Interesting, thanks for the link.

 

Personally, I'd maintain a healthy dose of skepticism here, particularly if it was a mechanical anemometer (as opposed to an ultrasonic one).

[snow_wizard]

I like to hear this news... given the track looks very similar to 1995 but probably with a weaker storm.

 

Indeed.  The strength of the storm is only part of the equation.  With Saturday's event one thing that could mitigate the winds is the fact the gradients aren't that extraordinary with it due to the fact the surface pressure is extremely low over a vast area.

[Phil]

Believe we tend to call it the "bent-back occlusion" in the US...also affectionately called the "poisonous tail" by mets.

 

Though on closer examination the "sting jet" appears to coincide with the initial period of frontolysis (which I assume is the occlusion phase as the cold front overtakes the warm front and the thermal gradient across the resultant occluded front decreases). Here's a lengthy slide presentation on extratropical cyclone lifecycle including sting jet formation and discussion of the bent-back occlusion (extending to the W-SW of the low center)

 

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/8-PresidentsDayStormColloquium_Schultz.pdf

Thanks for this! Much appreciated.

[TT-SEA]

Indeed.  The strength of the storm is only part of the equation.  With Saturday's event one thing that could mitigate the winds is the fact the gradients aren't that extraordinary with it due to the fact the surface pressure is extremely low over a vast area.

 

 

I was noticing that as well.  

[Tundra]

You never know. Wind storms almost always end up being surprising. I'll never forget the extreme hype over the Dec 1995 event in the Seattle area. It was almost a total dud here, but Portland got some big winds with it. That event should have been bigger here looking at the track and the numbers, but it just flopped.

Yup, I think with the way the Sou'Wester is suppose to deepen as it curves northward and not lose strength will make the chances of this being a total dud low. It's going to be fun tracking it on radar.

[snow_wizard]

Interesting, thanks for the link.

 

Personally, I'd maintain a healthy dose of skepticism here, particularly if it was a mechanical anemometer (as opposed to an ultrasonic one).

 

There were quite a number of anemometers that had extreme wind speeds with the Columbus Day Storm.  I've heard it was the equivalent of a cat 2 or cat 3 hurricane.  One of the strongest extratropical storms to strike the US in the 20th century.

[Front Ranger]

Fear of windstorms. The one thing that brings Tim and Jim together.

[Phil]

There were quite a number of anemometers that had extreme wind speeds with the Columbus Day Storm. I've heard it was the equivalent of a cat 2 or cat 3 hurricane. One of the strongest extratropical storms to strike the US in the 20th century.

Oh, I don't doubt that. I'm just referring to the estimations here in particular.

[snow_wizard]

Fear of windstorms. The one thing that brings Tim and Jim together.

 

I used to love them, but with the trees I have here I could do without them.  I have gotten more than my share wind here over the past 10 years.

[FroYoBro]

HEAVY RAIN INCOMING.