October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

Also, I wouldn't consider Nov 1974, 1980, 2001, 2005, 2007, or 2011 to be anything special. All were followed by "meh" winters.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty interesting thing on Scott Sistek's blog about a comment Nick Bond made about this winter.  He's the WA State Climatologist and he said "I'll eat a bug if we don't have at least one round of cold and snowy weather this winter".  I have corresponded with him off and on for years and he is extremely knowledgeable and very conservative about these things. 

[snow_wizard]

What is your definition of "crappy"? As I'm sure you recall, 2010/11 featured a November blast and went on to deliver another one in February, and flirted with something special in January.

 

Generally mild.  That can mean either splitty, atmospheric rivers, SW flow or whatever.  The three snowiest winters on record for Sea-Tac were all preceded by mild to warm Novembers.  1942-43, 1956-57, 1988-89, 2008-09, etc also were.  I have said for years cold Novembers are normally the kiss of death and I stick to it now.  There are obviously a few exceptions, but not many.

[Front Ranger]

I think it was positive during many of the 1980s Arctic blasts though.  The PDO doesn't look all that bad right now anyway.

 

It was in Dec 1983, but that wasn't your typical PNW Arctic blast, as it was driven mostly by a massive Arctic block that put the entire country in the deep freeze.

 

Nov 1985 had -PDO, in fact it was the most negative PDO month from 1979-1988.

 

Feb/Mar 1989 had -PDO. 

 

In general, the snowier PNW Arctic events happen during -PDO periods.

[crf450ish]

Generally mild.  That can mean either splitty, atmospheric rivers, SW flow or whatever.  The three snowiest winters on record for Sea-Tac were all preceded by mild to warm Novembers.  1942-43, 1956-57, 1988-89, 2008-09, etc also were.  I have said for years cold Novembers are normally the kiss of death and I stick to it now.  There are obviously a few exceptions, but not many

Honestly, I could go for a mild warm November. Still have a fair amount of prep work to do around the property before the first real snow hits. If mild means chilly clear days with some sun here and there, then I'm game. 

[weatherfan2012]

Also, I wouldn't consider Nov 1974, 1980, 2001, 2005, 2007, or 2011 to be anything special. All were followed by "meh" winters.

those were pretty much Meh suck fest winters coast to coast.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Only 2 weeks to go for our first snow. Looking forward to it.

[Phil]

those were pretty much Meh suck fest winters coast to coast.

Yeah, mostly zonal. A few were decent in the NE, but most of the western and central states roasted in all of these years under a +EPO.

[Brennan]

.......this forum produces the best forecasts. We should make our own forecasting site.

[Phil]

Generally mild. That can mean either splitty, atmospheric rivers, SW flow or whatever. The three snowiest winters on record for Sea-Tac were all preceded by mild to warm Novembers. 1942-43, 1956-57, 1988-89, 2008-09, etc also were. I have said for years cold Novembers are normally the kiss of death and I stick to it now. There are obviously a few exceptions, but not many.

Funny you mention those years, because 1942/43, 1988/89, and even 2008/09 all featured warmer than average Octobers across most of the western US. Isn't that something you mentioned also led to poor winters?

[snow_wizard]

It was in Dec 1983, but that wasn't your typical PNW Arctic blast, as it was driven mostly by a massive Arctic block that put the entire country in the deep freeze.

 

Nov 1985 had -PDO, in fact it was the most negative PDO month from 1979-1988.

 

Feb/Mar 1989 had -PDO. 

 

In general, the snowier PNW Arctic events happen during -PDO periods.

 

There were a lot more blasts than that in the 80s.

[Phil]

There were a lot more blasts than that in the 80s.

There were also several notable events during the last +PDO phase in the 1930s and 1940s, including (*cough*) 1942/43. Not to mention a number of events in late 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s.

 

I'm not even weighting the PDO this winter. It's going to be largely neutral.

[snow_wizard]

Funny you mention those years, because 1942/43, 1988/89, and even 2008/09 all featured warmer than average Octobers across most of the western US. Isn't that something you mentioned also led to poor winters?

 

A warm November is really important if you have a mild October.  BTW Oct 2008 was actually pretty chilly here.  A few places had their earliest reading of 25 or below on record.  I'm just sayin none of our top tier winters features a cold / blocky November.  1955-56 was a huge exception, but even it wasn't in the league of the really big winters.

 

Usually a very cold November results in a huge torch for January.  The numbers are there for all to see.

[snow_wizard]

.......this forum produces the best forecasts. We should make our own forecasting site.

 

That would be fun.  Sites like WeatherBell are the result of some people getting together and saying let's do this.  It takes a lot of work to run a site like that though.

[snow_wizard]

I will be interested to see if any support shows up for the cold snap the 12z ECMWF was showing at the end of the month. 

[wx_statman]

If this was 1919, we would be looking at lowland snowfall chances a week from now. 

 

We're on the doorstep of snow season!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Just a month and a half has passed but the landscape has transformed. The rain woes are over and it's dumping out there tonight.

 

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_3624_zps33rgqw3w.jpg

 

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_3665_zpsg1bfxbht.jpg

[Phil]

A warm November is really important if you have a mild October. BTW Oct 2008 was actually pretty chilly here. A few places had their earliest reading of 25 or below on record. I'm just sayin none of our top tier winters features a cold / blocky November. 1955-56 was a huge exception, but even it wasn't in the league of the really big winters.

 

Usually a very cold November results in a huge torch for January. The numbers are there for all to see.

Thing is, the system state is much different now than it was in the early/mid 20th century. A lot of those older correlations probably won't hold true today, IMO.

 

For example, 2010/11 was probably your second-best winter this century (behind 2008/09), and it featured a warm October/cold November combo. Very slight tweaks to the January pattern and it'd have been a truly historic winter.

[stuffradio]

If The Weather Network is correct, I'll maybe finish October with ~15 or 16 inches of rain.

[TT-SEA]

If The Weather Network is correct, I'll maybe finish October with ~15 or 16 inches of rain.

 

 

Looks quite dry in general here through the end of the month.   It will rain of course... but the amounts will not be impressive overall.  

[stuffradio]

Looks quite dry in general here through the end of the month.   It will rain of course... but the amounts will not be impressive overall.  

It shows over 4" of rain in the next 7 days on TWN. The precip has been increasing and decreasing on the GFS by each run. There is no clear trend except maybe much drier in the beginning of November itself.

[TT-SEA]

It shows over 4" of rain in the next 7 days on TWN. The precip has been increasing and decreasing on the GFS by each run. There is no clear trend except maybe much drier in the beginning of November itself.

Probably an inch here in the next 10 days after tonight.

 

Looks like a much more normal pattern for October.

[BLI snowman]

Thing is, the system state is much different now than it was in the early/mid 20th century. A lot of those older correlations probably won't hold true today, IMO.

 

For example, 2010/11 was probably your second-best winter this century (behind 2008/09), and it featured a warm October/cold November combo. Very slight tweaks to the January pattern and it'd have been a truly historic winter.

 

For most places it really wasn't at all. 2003-04 and 2013-14 were better for OR and southern WA, and 2006-07 was better for northern parts of the region.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Seems stormier out there tonight than it was this past Saturday.

[Phil]

For most places it really wasn't at all. 2003-04 and 2013-14 were better for OR and southern WA, and 2006-07 was better for northern parts of the region.

Yeah, I was only looking at Jim's area (just browsing what's available on the NCDC site). I didn't really go beyond that.

[BLI snowman]

Yeah, I was only looking at Jim's area (just browsing what's available on the NCDC site). I didn't really go beyond that.

 

Yeah, I'd probably agree it was 2nd best overall for that Tacoma to Seattle corridor. 

 

The sad thing is you can still practically count on one hand how many winters this century have been remotely worth a damn. For my current area the number is "up" to six, three that were legitimately good (2003-04, 2008-09, 2013-14) and three more that were at least average level (2006-07, 2010-11, 2011-12).

[stuffradio]

For most places it really wasn't at all. 2003-04 and 2013-14 were better for OR and southern WA, and 2006-07 was better for northern parts of the region.

2010-11 was pretty bad for me for snow. 2006-09 was great for me for snow. In 2010 I think I did have some snow in November, and I think Jan 2012 was the next best snow month for me. December 2008 is hands down the best snow month for me, and then Jan 2012 is the second best. November 2006 wasn't bad, and there was some really decent action in March 2002 or 03 up here.

[Phil]

Yeah, I'd probably agree it was 2nd best overall for that Tacoma to Seattle corridor.

 

The sad thing is you can still practically count on one hand how many winters this century have been remotely worth a damn. For my current area the number is "up" to six, three that were legitimately good (2003-04, 2008-09, 2013-14) and three more that were at least average level (2006-07, 2010-11, 2011-12).

I have a hunch that one of these years, that worm will turn and you'll get a string of good ones. Probably right after Jim moves.

 

Much like your area, our winters were also descending into mediocrity until very recently. Wouldn't surprise me if you guys experience a "recovery to the mean", so to speak, sometime over the next decade.

[Phil]

This will be very helpful in the long run, assuming it continues/verifies.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa_gefs.png

[Phil]

Modeling for NAM/PV in lockstep during week one..then all certainty goes to crap as the Eurasian anticyclonic break cycles, and Pacific eddy fluxes increase leading to an early season wave1 attempt follows:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

[Phil]

NOAA has released their winter outlook. Very similar to my thoughts (not that it matters what I think).

 

http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-s-winter-outlook-predicts-warmer-drier-south-and-cooler-wetter-north

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Woke up to heavy rain and wind late last night. The models were predicting quite a bit of rain but we ended up with about 1.2" overnight, most of which fell in just a few hours. Completely socked in with low cloud/fog this morning.

[Guest happ]

NOAA has released their winter outlook. Very similar to my thoughts (not that it matters what I think).

 

http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-s-winter-outlook-predicts-warmer-drier-south-and-cooler-wetter-north

 

[MossMan]

Very wet night and morning!

[luvssnow_spokane]

It has been monsooning here for the last 30 minutes... just totally dumping!! Impressive!!

 

EDIT: Flood Watch just issued for my area. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

For many weeks now the model data for the GFS on tropical tidbits (http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2016102012&fh=228&xpos=0&ypos=219) is loading with data missing (see screen shot) Any idea why?

 

 

[MossMan]

It has been monsooning here for the last 30 minutes... just totally dumping!! Impressive!!

 

EDIT: Flood Watch just issued for my area.

Yeah it hasn't been talked about much but it has been an impressively wet the last 24hrs!!

[ShawniganLake]

For many weeks now the model data for the GFS on tropical tidbits (http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2016102012&fh=228&xpos=0&ypos=219) is loading with data missing (see screen shot) Any idea why?

 

Screen Shot 2016-10-20 at 10.56.38 AM.jpg

I am going to say mountains. That map is for 850mb temps which is roughly 5000ft. The ground elevations in the white areas are probably above this elevation.

[Front Ranger]

There were a lot more blasts than that in the 80s.

 

Not really. 

 

Jan 1982 (brief event), a few brief/partial intrusions in 1984-85, and a very weak event in Feb 1986. Dec 1983, Nov 1985, and the two in 1989 were the big, region-wide blasts.

 

Regardless, what I said holds true. -PDO periods provide a much better chance at snowier Arctic events, at least for western WA.

[HighlandExperience]

Mountains are just getting dumped on above 5k. Mt Bachelor already well over 30 inches. We could see some resorts open in early November if we don't get torched.