TT-SEA Posted October 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2016 Nice to see us keep our streak alive. With the late evening showers we've now had measurable rain on 20/22 days this month. Looks like rain on most days coming up... just not much in total and with lots of breaks and offshore flow. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted October 23, 2016 Report Share Posted October 23, 2016 I-90 westbound into Issaquah this morning... Fall colours have been better than the past few years. Just like 2008. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 23, 2016 Report Share Posted October 23, 2016 14.22" of rain now on the month at my place...We could probably do okay with a short dry spell. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 23, 2016 Report Share Posted October 23, 2016 .02" of rain during the 11pm hour at PDX. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 23, 2016 Report Share Posted October 23, 2016 Looks like rain on most days coming up... just not much in total and with lots of breaks and offshore flow.Wednesday looks like a potentially decent soaking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 23, 2016 Report Share Posted October 23, 2016 The 49/36 day here today was respectably chilly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 23, 2016 Report Share Posted October 23, 2016 2008 was warm until ~mid-December. I just want snow. That is one of the years that had +PNA in both October and November. 1942 and 1988 were also high PNA warm autumns. 1988 had a late first freeze and yet the winter had some serious teeth. I continue to insist most of our really big winters have mild Novembers before them. It's totally provable. Some of the mild autumns could have been minus PNA I suppose. Getting really technical it appears there is still a chance October could go down as a minus PNA with the old formula. I think the old formula is better overall, but that's just my opinion. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 23, 2016 Report Share Posted October 23, 2016 The 49/36 day here today was respectably chilly. Nice! The max got a bit warmer than I would have liked here, but the low was 40 which isn't too bad. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 23, 2016 Report Share Posted October 23, 2016 Fall colours have been better than the past few years. Just like 2008. No doubt. Some of the non native trees have had amazing color this year. Even some of the native ones have been good. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 23, 2016 Report Share Posted October 23, 2016 Wednesday looks like a potentially decent soaking. That one should put our monthly totals into the stratosphere. Rain that should have fallen on SE Alaska this month has hit here instead. That can't be a bad thing going forward. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 23, 2016 Report Share Posted October 23, 2016 That one should put our monthly totals into the stratosphere. Rain that should have fallen on SE Alaska this month has hit here instead. That can't be a bad thing going forward. 2.17" so far this month in Juneau and 7.40" at SEA. Talk about backwards! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 23, 2016 Report Share Posted October 23, 2016 That one should put our monthly totals into the stratosphere. Rain that should have fallen on SE Alaska this month has hit here instead. That can't be a bad thing going forward.Might push Shawnigan Lake near or above the 12" mark for October. Top 5 wettest Octobers here will likely end up. 20031975201619211967 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted October 23, 2016 Report Share Posted October 23, 2016 Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 23, 2016 Report Share Posted October 23, 2016 That is one of the years that had +PNA in both October and November. 1942 and 1988 were also high PNA warm autumns. 1988 had a late first freeze and yet the winter had some serious teeth. I continue to insist most of our really big winters have mild Novembers before them. It's totally provable. Some of the mild autumns could have been minus PNA I suppose. Getting really technical it appears there is still a chance October could go down as a minus PNA with the old formula. I think the old formula is better overall, but that's just my opinion.October has no chance of finishing with a -PNA (on either formula). I'm usually in agreement with you, but I think you're really, really reaching on this one. Just my opinion, I could be wrong. Also, FWIW, October 2008 featured the most +AO on record, while this one will likely feature the most -AO on record. So yeah..they're a tad different. Regardless, 2008/09 went all ridgy in January anyway. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted October 23, 2016 Report Share Posted October 23, 2016 Quite the gradient in the long range... bring that bad boy south a bit 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 23, 2016 Report Share Posted October 23, 2016 Well, the strat/PV is cooperating this year (unlike recent years). Just need to wait for the change in the NPAC pattern during mid/late November to tap into all this potential w/ weak zonal winds, though technically the ongoing NPAC pattern is one of the main reasons for the weak PV. It only this had waited a few months, lol. If it were mid December right now, you guys would be a lock for a January blast at this point. Literally off the charts @ 10mb..between 4 & 5 standard deviations below average. Yikes. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/C146132A-49E4-4955-BC30-0EB95970A83B_zps30s9jurd.jpg Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2016 Warm and sunny day here so far... already 62. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 23, 2016 Report Share Posted October 23, 2016 Might push Shawnigan Lake near or above the 12" mark for October. Top 5 wettest Octobers here will likely end up. 20031975201619211967Well, 2003 is a fantastic stratospheric match, all the way down to the wavenumber and breaker orientation. All this despite featuring the wrong ENSO/QBO sign. Goes to show how challenging intraseasonal forcing can be in had absence of a consistent background boundary state. Wouldn't have envisioned this progression even 3 weeks ago. Very abnormal stuff ongoing right now. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 23, 2016 Report Share Posted October 23, 2016 Turning out to be a delightful weekend. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 23, 2016 Report Share Posted October 23, 2016 For anyone interested, here are two great papers I just finished reading. Recent disruption and/or corruption of the QBO, and potential implications going forward: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL070921/abstract Predictability of intraseasonal/MJO forcing within the deterministic range partially governed by the QBO: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-016-3392-0 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2016 Turning out to be a delightful weekend. Really nice up here both days... with rain on both Friday and Saturday night but sunshine by morning. Good timing of events. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted October 23, 2016 Report Share Posted October 23, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 23, 2016 Report Share Posted October 23, 2016 With the October AO nearly a lock to average below -1, and very likely to finish between -1.5 and -2, here is a bar graph depicting the average monthly October AO since 1950. Looks like we'll be giving 2002, 2009, and 2012 a run for their money. Of course, two of those were Niños and the other was -ENSO but during a -QBO/solar max. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/3770CCA7-58A2-4F91-923B-FA5010707C39_zpsjuyvt6oz.png 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 23, 2016 Report Share Posted October 23, 2016 Most of the big -AO Octobers are Niños and/or -QBOs. There are very few Niña/+QBO years with deep -AOs in October. In fact, only one year featured a sub -1 OCT AO and was Niña/+QBO, and only a few other -ENSO/+QBO years had an AO near or below -0.5 in OCT. We're probably looking at something like a -1.7 AO this month, which would set an all-time record for lowest OCT AO, in any year. So, this is indeed a very unusual situation ongoing presently. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 Warm and sunny day here so far... already 62.Rained here this morning. We had a 30 second sun break around noon that nearly blinded me. Then we socked right back in with low clouds. I could go for a few sunny dry days soon. Frosty mornings are nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 Looks like a +5 at SEA today... the biggest departure of the month. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 Gfs long range is showing November starting out with a typical wet and breezy pattern. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 With the October AO nearly a lock to average below -1, and very likely to finish between -1.5 and -2, here is a bar graph depicting the average monthly October AO since 1950. Looks like we'll be giving 2002, 2009, and 2012 a run for their money. Of course, two of those were Niños and the other was -ENSO but during a -QBO/solar max. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/3770CCA7-58A2-4F91-923B-FA5010707C39_zpsjuyvt6oz.pngI remember 2012 clearly, 2009 not so much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sometimesdylan Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 2.17" so far this month in Juneau and 7.40" at SEA. Talk about backwards! I'm not complaining Quote "There are so many waves coming in all the time, you don't have to worry about that. Take your time—wave come. Let the other guys go; catch another one." -Duke Kahanamoku Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 I remember 2012 clearly, 2009 not so much.Niño year, but was the 2nd coldest October in US history. December 2009 featured an Arctic blast into the western US w/ constructively interfering EPO/AO blocks. One of the lowest AOs in history, actually. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 Niño year, but was the 2nd coldest October in US history. December 2009 featured an Arctic blast into the western US w/ constructively interfering EPO/AO blocks. One of the lowest AOs in history, actually. I was in Oklahoma that October and it was incredibly chilly for October there. That was an excellent winter out there too. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 Looks like a +5 at SEA today... the biggest departure of the month.Only +6 for Olympia. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 Only +6 for Olympia. OLM always runs warm. #replacesensor Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 SEA has had 3 days this month without rain. Could end the month with the same number. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 I really hope we skip November. I suppose we could get away with a borderline snow. The thing we want to avoid is extreme blocking with a major cold wave in November.Pacific Northwest arctic outbreaks are a lot like birds. One in the hand is worth two in the bush 2 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 For anyone interested in playing around with polar vortex analogs: http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html#ncep_clim_stats_nh Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 I'm still in awe of the SSW events in 1988/89 and 2008/09. Two of the most amazing PV implosions in recent times, both occurring in Niña/+QBO winters. The February 1989 SSW is my personal benchmark. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 Pacific Northwest arctic outbreaks are a lot like birds. One in the hand is worth two in the bush I agree. After the turds of the last 4 seasons, I will be happy with what we get. January 2012 was the last time I remember Seattle proper having a really good snowfall. Ever since then it has been downhill. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 Early November time frame bears watching for wind in my opinion as energy from the low hits the coast 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 More advisory level winds in Klamath Falls this evening. Sheesh. Very active October so far here. And factoring all of the wind I got during Spring and Summer, 2016 could go down as my windiest year I've ever experienced (based on # of windy days, not speeds). Even warm days had wind this year. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 22 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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