November 2016 Observations & Discussion

[james1976]

I heard Euro is a dud for the next 10 days

[Tom]

Who is JB?

Joe Bastardi, he owns a company called WeatherBell Analytics

[Tom]

I heard Euro is a dud for the next 10 days

Yup, it has pieces of energy all over the place.  I don't expect models to show a storm every run this far out anyway.  Within Day 5, Euro is usually better than GFS.

[Tom]

12z EPS with a strong 1st piece on the 28th...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112112/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_8.png

 

 

Too much spread among ensemble members on the second piece...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112112/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112112/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_11.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112112/ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_10.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112112/ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_11.png

[jaster220]

Pretty amazing. More than half the snow they had all last season from the first (pre-winter) storm 

 

 

[Tom]

12z EPS...another look...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112112/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_8.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112112/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_10.png

[Tom]

After Thanksgiving, the pattern on the CFSv2 seems to target storms diving down into the Rockies/SW and rounding the base of a longwave trough up into the Lakes/OV region.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016112106/cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_2.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016112106/cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_3.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016112106/cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_4.png

 

 

Once we get beyond the 10th of December, the pattern may really amplify and the Taste of the Siberian Express could be on the table...the Arctic is showing signs of cooling dramatically Week 2-4 and may be an indication of Cross Polar Flow.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016112106/cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_5.png

[jaster220]

@ Tom 

 

Cohen tweeted that the PV will perhaps regain it's composure a bit but that it is not a bad signal this time of year as it can mean more cold on our side going into the heart of December. 

 

Can we just roll with this and push the reset button all winter??   

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

@ Tom 

 

Cohen tweeted that the PV will perhaps regain it's composure a bit but that it is not a bad signal this time of year as it can mean more cold on our side going into the heart of December. 

 

Can we just roll with this and push the reset button all winter??   

 

20161121 EPS 12z 216hr surf & 850mb.PNG

Amen!  

[Tom]

Nice illustration of what happens when the seasonal variation hits in the NE PAC bc of the warmer waters and high latitude blocking.  GOA trough replaced by a Ridge...however, the LRC will continue along and shift the storm track/jet stream south.

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

No joke, this is going to be a fun pattern going forward...

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

 

 

 

[Money]

Big earthquake just hit Japan with a 3 M tsunami about to hit

[Money]

18z GFS really bombing out the first system

 

Sub 977 in S. WI

[WBadgersW]

18z GFS really bombing out the first system

 

Sub 977 in S. WI

Oh my

[Money]

Yeah not much cold air with it at all but looks like 40-50 mph gusts on this run

[james1976]

2nd storm pushed way south and quick on 18z GFS.

[GDR]

[GDR]

[GDR]

Mr flowers is getting excited. He says the Canadian shows his area getting blasted!

[Tom]

18z GEFS jumping on a powerful GL storm...initially starts out of the TX Panhandle region, then bombs out heading NE...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112118/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_26.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112118/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_32.png

 

 

 

2nd system digs farther south coming out of the GOM...too much spread if this becomes an EC storm or OV cutter...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112118/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_41.png

[gabel23]

Should we panic yet???

LOL, it's the 18z GFS and we are 8 days away. Panic city!! 

[Jaycee]

He's not wrong, GGEM crushes Eastern Nebraska. Gotta love being the bullseye 9 days away #SaidNoOneEver

[bud2380]

12z EPS Control still shows the Dec 1 storm.

 

 

[bud2380]

[GDR]

12z EPS Control still shows the Dec 1 storm.

 

 

euro.PNG

is that all snow in ia?

[Tom]

Noticed there was a lack of a location to discuss upcoming storm systems so I made a 5+ days out thread similar to last winter's. http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1449-winter-2016-medium-to-long-range-discussion-5-days-out/

Not sure if its necessary, wasn't a big fan of it last year, I guess we can see how it goes....

 

Meantime, I went and started a Snowfall Contest for this year....

[hlcater]

Not sure if its necessary, wasn't a big fan of it last year, I guess we can see how it goes....

 

Meantime, I went and started a Snowfall Contest for this year....

ok, I'll get rid of it. I can see why some wouldn't like it.

 

EDIT: can't, It's up to you whether to keep it or not, 100% your call.

[james1976]

euro1.PNG

Nice. Model madness! But its a week+ away so what else would we expect?

[Tom]

00z GFS has a very similar look compared to the Euro control run Bud posted, but lacking the cold air...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112200/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png

[Tom]

Hey Bud, did the Euro Control have 2 systems or just 1 main one on the 1st???

[bud2380]

Tom, it had two systems.

[Tom]

Highest LES totals thus far have been in Oswego county, NY...over 3 Feet in some spots!

 

 

 

...OSWEGO COUNTY...
6 E LACONA 40.0 600 PM 11/21 COCORAHS
8 NNW REDFIELD 37.0 800 PM 11/21 COCORAHS
5 S LORRAINE 37.0 450 PM 11/21 STORM CHASER
2 NE ORWELL 34.0 449 PM 11/21 STORM CHASER
4 E SMARTVILLE 33.0 410 PM 11/21 STORM CHASER
3 NE BENNETTS BRIDGE 17.0 700 AM 11/21 COOP OBSERVER

[Tom]

Tom, it had two systems.

Interesting, should be fun trying to see which models had the right idea with these systems.  It's starting to be a very complex situation.  Now the 00z GFS wants to paint an EC storm with the second storm.

[NEJeremy]

Hope it's not a trend but now the bigger storm is on Monday with the earlier piece and that thing is so strong it screws everything up after that for the rest of the week. Of course it's too warm for snow too

[Money]

Gem gets the low down in the 960's

[OKwx2k4]

Thought I was going to have something great to say about the weeklies tonight but it looks like a repeat of last year's pattern on this run only colder. Not interested.

[Money]

GGEM:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016112200/168/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016112200/180/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

[Jaycee]

I think models are off. They're overplaying how far south this thing will actually go. I think the GGEM actually has a good handle on the track. It would make more sense this time of year to see the further NW solutions. We all know this. Plus, being in the jackpot this far out, is useless. We've been in the jackpot for days and days, even until 12 hours out, and suddenly get missed. Trends will be important within 144 hr range, even then the jumps still happen. Not too concerned at this point.

[james1976]

Gem gets the low down in the 960's

Lol what?!

[GDR]

East coast storm ?? Gotta love it!!