snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 We all know the drill guys. This is actually pretty good right now. 4 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Talk about an idiot! Oh, you're no fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 00z ECMWF 10 Day Snowfall totals, including the southwestern US. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 The Wed night low is still there and still worthy of keeping an eye on. There's a new low at the tail end of the 00Z ECMWF run. It's a big low, but west at this point (Below). Everything will look totally different in 2 or 3 days, but the basic setup remains steady between runs. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: 00z ECMWF 10 Day Snowfall totals, including the southwestern US. I’m in the MUAVE! 2 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, Randyc321 said: Oh, you're no fun. I was laughing my azz off when I typed that. The guy is really dumb though. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 14 hours ago, Kayla said: There are a lot more deciduous trees in Maine or NH though. Sweden is mostly Tiaga forest and the northern parts definitely have a very tundra like feel with a lot of rocky soil and short shrubs. My wife's family lives in Stockholm and they've been spamming early snow pictures at me. Gorgeous time of year. What brought you to the land of fermented fish? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 My rule is if I've never seen something the models are showing actually happen I disregard it. That low that comes down and spoils the party just happens too fast IMO. Usually in a situation like that the spacing of lows sliding down the coast is much less frequent. 1 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Is this the PV? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said: Is this the PV? GEM kinda shows something similar I think. Like the whole thing shifts down into Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Making myself a nice second dinner to stay up for the EPS 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 There's that too. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 60+ MPH east winds in the foothills with that big low approaching at the end of the ECMWF run. This is crazy pants range, hoping it sticks in future runs. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Gem did look solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 EPS almost Day 9 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Looks like chilly onshore flow to me not seeing arctic air spilling into the Columbia Basin yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Block is getting too far west. Onto 12z.... 6z GFS in 2 hours 7 minutes 12z ECMWF in 10 hours 17 minutes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Yay Control 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Still much colder than last nights run for what its worth. $5 Wendy's Biggie Bag? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Chances of >1" snow increasing for mid-week in most spots. Past four EPS runs. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Still much colder than last nights run for what its worth. $5 Wendy's Biggie Bag? Remember when Double Stacks were a buck??? Best college meal ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Still much colder than last nights run for what its worth. $5 Wendy's Biggie Bag? Anybody try the peppermint frosty yet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 What have we learned tonight? Probably nothing, but the GFS/GEFS are horrid and have a severe cold bias. Maybe we should only model ride the ECMWF/EPS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 9 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: What have we learned tonight? Probably nothing, but the GFS/GEFS are horrid and have a severe cold bias. Maybe we should only model ride the ECMWF/EPS. Medium range will keep improving and don't look past day 10 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Dr. No has spoken. 1 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Dr. No has spoken. I need a 6z pick-me-up like its nobodys business. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Hoping 12z ECMWF/EPS handles the ridge better Day 6+. If not, this is going to be just the initial chilly trough, but nothing arctic. A lot is probably going to change the next 48hrs of model runs, so we'll just have to see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 5 hours ago, MossMan said: December 2008 was so amazing! Many of the snowfalls up here were not forecasted as being much more than snow showers but we kept getting these healthy pulses through that would require Winter Storm Warnings over and over again! Here are parts of those warnings, sorry kind of long. This honestly brought back so many good memories even if these files are kind of weak on actual details. I went back and looked at the snowfall measurements from that December 2008 period. We picked up 3-4" of snow overnight between the 13th and the 14th as temperatures plummeted. From the 14th until the 24th I don't think I got above freezing. The real show started early on Wednesday morning December 17th. I went to bed with a little snow in the forecast and woke up to an additional 5" on the ground and heavy snow continuing throughout the day. Regardless to say, school was cancelled. By the end of the day there was almost a foot on the ground and school was cancelled again on the 18th as another couple inches fell. We ended up getting an extra three days of winter vacation as it cleared out on Friday and it got quite cold. By Saturday morning (enhanced by the 12" of snow) the temperature dropped to 2F. I remember watching my weather station drop degree after degree and willing it to get below 0F! Clouds moved in that night bringing with them light snow which turned into a full fledged storm by Sunday the 21st with another 6" falling on Sunday and 4" on Monday. By that time my snow depth was above 20". A little additional snow fell on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day before it slowly started to moderate. 9 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 4 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said: Got up to 52 here today with a respectable .73" of rain. Update on my wife: We had the doctor send off her biopsy for molecular/DNA analysis (so far I've seen a $900 charge hit our insurance for that one, not sure if more is to follow). We went in for the pre-op appointment today, and the results from the analysis also showed up today. Her cancer risk went from 40-ish% down to 3%!! After a lot of discussion with the doctor, we decided to take a wait and monitor approach. The type of cancer she is at risk of having is a slow mover, so routine ultrasounds should pick up any issues early enough, and there is a 25% chance the surgery could throw her thyroid function out of whack, plus the risks that go along with ANY surgery. It's not 0% we really want to hear, but 3% is a way better than 40%....breathing a huge sigh of relief here tonight! Great news to hear. I wish you worked with me, that $900 bill would be $15 with no followup bills... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 I’ll take it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: I’ll take it How does it compare to yesterday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: How does it compare to yesterday? About 2-3 degrees colder than the 12z was. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 14 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: This honestly brought back so many good memories even if these files are kind of weak on actual details. I went back and looked at the snowfall measurements from that December 2008 period. We picked up 3-4" of snow overnight between the 13th and the 14th as temperatures plummeted. From the 14th until the 24th I don't think I got above freezing. The real show started early on Wednesday morning December 17th. I went to bed with a little snow in the forecast and woke up to an additional 5" on the ground and heavy snow continuing throughout the day. Regardless to say, school was cancelled. By the end of the day there was almost a foot on the ground and school was cancelled again on the 18th as another couple inches fell. We ended up getting an extra three days of winter vacation as it cleared out on Friday and it got quite cold. By Saturday morning (enhanced by the 12" of snow) the temperature dropped to 2F. I remember watching my weather station drop degree after degree and willing it to get below 0F! Clouds moved in that night bringing with them light snow which turned into a full fledged storm by Sunday the 21st with another 6" falling on Sunday and 4" on Monday. By that time my snow depth was above 20". A little additional snow fell on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day before it slowly started to moderate. I remember the day it started, it hit mid to late afternoon. I remember driving home from work on the side roads bc the freeways were a mess. I remember I just got my first Subaru which couldn't have been better timing. I had to go the hill by Chateau Ste Michelle which for those uninitiated, is very steep and winding. I remember having to slalom cars spun out that were trying to get uo the hill. Engine compression is a helleva break when you don't want to use breaks. I remember that cold morning. My parents place in Woodinville got down to 7, lowest temp I've ever seen in Woodinville. Then Christmas eve i recall a foot of snow falling over night and into Christmas day. Snow was so heavy we woke up to no power. Lucky we had a generator. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 UW GFS seems to have forgotten about mountians. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Cold bias much? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: UW GFS seems to have forgotten about mountians. I wish lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 18 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: UW GFS seems to have forgotten about mountians. I didn’t even know it went out past 180hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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