November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[KingstonWX]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I think the stuff over the interior kind of develops out of thin air so to speak.  HRRR may not be good at that type of thing.

You thinking of some sort of convergence, or ?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Meatyorologist]

Posting about this in the twitter groupchat...

What is offshore right now is convection enhanced by divergence aloft. That will stall and weaken gradually as it meanders onshore, if it even makes it to land. What the global models are so happy about tomorrow morning is a deformation band forming over the sound. That is a separate feature, as Jim has pointed out. That is the best chance for accumulating snowfall Seattle northward.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I think the stuff over the interior kind of develops out of thin air so to speak.  HRRR may not be good at that type of thing.

It will eventually work in. Earlier it seemed to be moving quicker but I can see the euro may be right about it not starting until 1-2am for the Seattle area. 

[snow_wizard]

BTW according to last night's HRRR I should no snow on the ground right now.

[gusky]

Latest WRF is not good, seems to be in line with other models and with satellite and radar of the system coming in. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, KingstonWX said:

You thinking of some sort of convergence, or ?

Maybe mild / moist air meeting cold continental air or something like that.

[KingstonWX]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

BTW according to last night's HRRR I should no snow on the ground right now.

Full disclosure, I never trust HRRR. It can be good at certain things, usually normal rain/showers and incorporating topography others don't, but it's really not all that great with complex borderline rain-snow situations. I was just mentioning it because it was topical. 

[FroYoBro]

It’s starting to look a decent bet that I see my first snowflakes of the season in the next 24 hours. 
 

 

 

WOWOWOWOWOWowiwiwowowowiwowowwOWOW

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, gusky said:

Latest WRF is not good, seems to be in line with other models and with satellite and radar of the system coming in. 

We'll have to wait and see what the ECMWF shows.  The GFS operational is emphatic.

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, gusky said:

Latest WRF is not good, seems to be in line with other models and with satellite and radar of the system coming in. 

That thing does not do well with deformation snowfall at all. Consistently and comically underdoes it. If it were to be believed, I would have received 3" in Feb 2019. Toss it.

[gusky]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

That thing does not do well with deformation snowfall at all. Consistently and comically underdoes it. If it were to be believed, I would have received 3" in Feb 2019. Toss it.

Gladly!

[MikeInEverett]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

That thing does not do well with deformation snowfall at all. Consistently and comically underdoes it. If it were to be believed, I would have received 3" in Feb 2019. Toss it.

I’m not sure if any model even got close with February 3rd 2019. Most models showed like 3-4” max and most of the area up here got between 6-10”. It really is just watching it unfold and seeing what happens.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[KingstonWX]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

That thing does not do well with deformation snowfall at all. Consistently and comically underdoes it. If it were to be believed, I would have received 3" in Feb 2019. Toss it.

You would have only received 3" if your roads weren't so D**n cold. 

[GHweatherChris]

Lots of wasted snowfall over the ocean currently, shame.

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

I’m not sure if any model even got close with February 3rd 2019. Most models showed like 3-4” max and most of the area up here got between 6-10”. It really is just watching it unfold and seeing what happens.

That forecast actually verified nicely at my place, but the windswept snow brought crazy drifting almost two feet deep in parts of the yard.

[snow_wizard]

I see the problem on the WRF.  It's way too strong on CAA / north winds tomorrow morning which just kills the moisture.  Even at that it does show a stripe of snow in the morning SE of Seattle.

[Meatyorologist]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Maybe mild / moist air meeting cold continental air or something like that.

Deformation banding

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That thing does not do well with deformation snowfall at all. Consistently and comically underdoes it. If it were to be believed, I would have received 3" in Feb 2019. Toss it.

Yup.  In this case way too much north wind early in the day.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[GHweatherChris]

Well it should be snowing when I get up for work at 330 tomorrow morning, just about to wrap a bow on it for tonight unless the moisture makes a jail break inland soon.

[Gradient Keeper]

Long range turns rather quiet and boring, at least on the GFS Op.... A lot of east wind for PDX/Gorge.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er

Wow.  If we can stay this blocky all winter....

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Well it should be snowing when I get up for work at 330 tomorrow morning, just about to wrap a bow on it for tonight unless the moisture makes a jail break inland soon.

I might get some sleep for a couple hours here too shortly…hard to though exciting night!

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

I might get some sleep for a couple hours here too shortly…hard to though exciting night!

Stupid priorities, adulting is no fun on nights like this.

[Ellsworb]

sitting at just shy of 4” on the east shore of Lake Tapps!!!  

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Long range turns rather quiet and boring, at least on the GFS Op.... A lot of east wind for PDX/Gorge.

Cold and dry is fine for a while.

If the LRC really is in effect we should see something big in late Dec / early Jan.  I wonder if we will see anything more than a short period of anything resembling normal in December.

[TacomaWx]

November is gonna finish -4.2 our biggest positive/Negative anomaly month since February 2019. 1.9” of snow to boot is a very solid month. 
 Should wind up with 5.33” of rain which is about 1.3” below normal but not too bad. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Ellsworb said:

sitting at just shy of 4” on the east shore of Lake Tapps!!!  

Could easily be 6 or 7 by 9am.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the stuff over the interior kind of develops out of thin air so to speak.  HRRR may not be good at that type of thing.

Showers are now popping up in the Strait of Georgia that were totally not forecast by any of the models I have been looking at.

[RentonHill]

GEM progression seems somewhat realistic. Idk

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

November is gonna finish -4.2 our biggest positive/Negative anomaly month since February 2019. 1.9” of snow to boot is a very solid month. 
 Should wind up with 5.33” of rain which is about 1.3” below normal but not too bad. 

I ended up with 39.4.  Pretty darn cold November.

[Cold Snap]

Good to see people in the south sound scoring quite a bit! Hopefully more moisture can arrive later.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Showers are now popping up in the Strait of Georgia that were totally not forecast by any of the models I have been looking at.

At this time I throw out all model guidance it’s just satellite and radar and streetlights. 

[RentonHill]

ICON also keeps things somewhat "together" compared to the GFS which kind of just blows it all up

[skywatcher]

Well, we're sitting at just over 2 inches here! It's 33 degrees and still lightly snowing, so I'll take it. Definitely ending November on a positive note this year

[KingstonWX]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

At this time I throw out all model guidance it’s just satellite and radar and streetlights. 

In order of priority, that should be reversed...

1) Streetlights

2) Satellite

3) Radar

EDIT: I guess that's not exactly reversed, but I'm keeping it.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Ellsworb]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Could easily be 6 or 7 by 9am.

Here’s hoping!  Kids school is already cancelled tomorrow so I’m all in on a snow day!!!  

we had a great party in the thick of it tonight in our wall tent… cocoa, snowball fights, and lots of laughs with the family.