November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Skagit Weather]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Fun  fact: so far this winter, it has snowed more IMBY than in Montréal.

And it snowed earlier in the season, too.

Fun fact: I've seen as much accumulating snow this winter IMBY as Miami. I think that happens sometimes, but only in really bad winters here or ice age winters in Miami. Fortunately winter is a long way from over and I have seen more snow in the air... 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

ICON also keeps things somewhat "together" compared to the GFS which kind of just blows it all up

The atmosphere is just a train wreck.  We'll see if it stays that way.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[ShawniganLake]

Weather summary
for British Columbia
issued by Environment Canada
at 6:01 a.m. PST Wednesday 30 November 2022.

Discussion.

A deep low pressure system brought strong winds, blowing snow, and 
widespread snowfall to the south coast on Tuesday, November 29 2022. 
Over the Lower Mainland, there were multiple snowfall reports with 
amounts between 10 to 20 cm. Over Inland and Eastern Vancouver 
Island, there were multiple reports with 15 to 25 cm of snowfall 
accumulation. 

The following are snowfall amounts from last night at weather 
observation sites: 

Campbell River: 21 cm 

Malahat: 7 cm 

North Courtenay: 25 cm 

North Delta: 10 cm 

Pitt Meadows: 15 cm 

Port Alberni: 24 cm 

Vancouver International Airport: 10 cm 

White Rock: 7 cm 

Squamish: 19 cm 

Whistler: 9 cm 

Lytton: 9 cm 

Quesnel: 7 cm 

Puntzi Mountain: 7 cm 

Coquihalla Summit: 7 cm 

Paulson Summit: 20 cm 

Warfield: 15 cm 

The following are peak windspeeds recorded: 

Trial Island: 89 km/h 

Victoria Kelp Reefs: 101 km/h 

Discovery Island: 103 km/h 

Victoria International Airport: 70 km/h 

Victoria Harbour: 80 km/h 

Comox: 69 km/h 

Grief Point: 80 km/h 

Saturna Island: 93 km/h 

Chrome Lightstation: 111 km/h

 

[Gradient Keeper]

BIG snows for the Sierras!

[The Blob]

Just need the temp to drop

[Gradient Keeper]

Be back for the EURO! C'MON!!!!

[TacomaWx]

FWIW the NWS expects this to move through at 1-2am as well. 

[MWG]

Temps won't go down it's been 43F for hours 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The slowed movement on radar is from the low approaching Astoria, the counter clockwise rotation is forcing and slowing that band we are watching. 

[Seattle]

Wind shifted to the S/SE at SEA, kind of interesting 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This has been a very snowy November for Omak. They are probably 25 -30 inches on the month. There's over 2 ft on ground at my cabin. A November record the last 10 years.

[TacomaWx]

How are the roads out there @MR.SNOWMIZER?

[SnowWillarrive]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

FWIW the NWS expects this to move through at 1-2am as well. 

Staying up for this 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

How are the roads out there @MR.SNOWMIZER?

The main roads are fine, side roads still bad. We still have 7 inches of compacted snow on the ground. I bet there's 2 feet up on green mt

[Front Ranger]

Strong west/east temp gradient so far. Given history with -ENSO/+QBO, would not surprise me to see December shift to more cold in the eastern half (but not necessarily warm in the West).

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The main roads are fine, side roads still bad. We still have 7 inches of compacted snow on the ground. I bet there's 2 feet up on green mt

Might try and hike green mountain Saturday wondering how bad the road conditions are with the tree damage and the heavy snow

[Rubus Leucodermis]

18 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Fun fact: I've seen as much accumulating snow this winter IMBY as Miami. I think that happens sometimes, but only in really bad winters here or ice age winters in Miami. Fortunately winter is a long way from over and I have seen more snow in the air... 

Really unusual for Skagit County to be in the screw zone so much. Here’s hoping that changes soon.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Might try and hike green mountain Saturday wondering how bad the road conditions are with the tree damage and the heavy snow

I drove the trailhead no problem today

[Front Ranger]

39 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Lots of wasted snowfall over the ocean currently, shame.

Disagree. Cooling the SSTAs. Huge development.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

In the old days we would be going outside ever 15 minutes looking for clouds. The radar ruined some of the excitement. 

[The Winter Warlock]

4” officially in Covington. Waiting for the batch later tonight.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, The Winter Warlock said:

4” officially in Covington. Waiting for the batch later tonight.

Looks like you’ve had a protractored snowfall.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty sure this is how the radar will evolve through tomorrow... the 18Z ECMWF is right on target with the current situation.    It was nearly perfect for today and was the only model to get it right.

 

[Front Ranger]

33 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

ICON also keeps things somewhat "together" compared to the GFS which kind of just blows it all up

Yeah, the Euro was nothing like GFS, too. I wouldn't trust it at all...especially since now we're dealing with the "upgrade", right?

[Snownerd3000]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Disagree. Cooling the SSTAs. Huge development.

How does this assist? 

[Perturbed Member]

GFS and HRRR look pretty decent for NW OR for the next 24-36 hrs. Of course can't really predict where these showers go but the coverage on these maps looks better than I expected. 

That being said I don't trust the HRRR for anything beyond 8 hours and the GFS has been on drugs as of late. 

 

18z Euro looks really great for Clark county. Absolutely brutal for Washington county. Something tells me the Euro will be right about that shadowing in WA county.

[TT-SEA]

The ECMWF shows about 1-2 inches in a bullseye in SW King County between 3-9 a.m.

 

[Meatyorologist]

37 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

GEM progression seems somewhat realistic. Idk

Looks primed for another Arctic event

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The ECMWF shows about 1-2 inches in a bullseye in SW King County between 3-9 a.m.

 

That's almost right over me. Nice

[Meatyorologist]

HRRR snowmaps are blank for tomorrow morning, but the column is semi-saturated and sfc temps are cold. Overall looks really weird and I don't trust it.

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

How does this assist? 

I was being facetious. Offshore SSTAs have been a source of controversy on here for years...

[TacomaWx]

Just finally dropped to freezing here. All the snow fell at 33 degrees. If it had been at 32 degrees we probably would’ve had double this evening. There was some super heavy snow about 6pm tonight. With colder temps early tomorrow morning I think 1-2 inches is a good bet. 

[SnowWillarrive]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The ECMWF shows about 1-2 inches in a bullseye in SW King County between 3-9 a.m.

 

That will produce 2-5 inches 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The ECMWF shows about 1-2 inches in a bullseye in SW King County between 3-9 a.m.

 

No way in hell that big area around the black hills will get nothing.  God these models can be hilarious sometimes. 

[Meatyorologist]

Spin is becoming more visible on radar, and more sheets of stratoform rain are forming. Could be the beginning of round 2 for the south sound in a couple hours, maybe some more to the north?

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Spin is becoming more visible on radar, and more sheets of stratoform rain are forming. Could be the beginning of round 2 for the south sound in a couple hours, maybe some more to the north?

cool, so no sleep then? aight

[Cloud]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The ECMWF shows about 1-2 inches in a bullseye in SW King County between 3-9 a.m.

 

This would actually look quite good for me. Anywhere between 1-1.5” will get me on the books…. I think got 0.5” last night. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Spin is becoming more visible on radar, and more sheets of stratoform rain are forming. Could be the beginning of round 2 for the south sound in a couple hours, maybe some more to the north?

I’ve noticed on radar on the NW OR coast that’s moving in quicker. Could be some snow showers that fill in on radar from the SW. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Spin is becoming more visible on radar, and more sheets of stratoform rain are forming. Could be the beginning of round 2 for the south sound in a couple hours, maybe some more to the north?

I'd be amazed if this didn't produce more than that anemic map of the euro.