November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Day 5 Last 4

A lot can change 

[Requiem]

Still looks very windy for Gorge influenced areas on Sunday-- EURO showing surface gusts of 60+ mph is pretty significant.

[snow_wizard]

Big shift westward on the PV for early next week.  Interesting.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 5 Massive PV over the Canadian prairies trying hard to shift southwest toward us. Ridge support is decent at this point, but unfortunately won't hold to deliver arctic air. Closer though!

Also just going to be awfully hard to get it over the rockies. I've seem this movie before, often gets shunted to the east...

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 to 5 ..... If we had stronger ridge support....

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 5 Massive PV over the Canadian prairies trying hard to shift southwest toward us. Ridge support is decent at this point, but unfortunately won't hold to deliver arctic air. Closer though!

Big shift tonight.  I won't believe it if that thing nails us after all of the cold we've already had.

[BurienSnowGlobe]

A couple of bigger showers developing in the Strait of Juan de Fuca

[snow_wizard]

31.5 here now.  Just cold enough to freeze this up.

[RentonHill]

Day 6

[Kolk1604]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 5 Massive PV over the Canadian prairies trying hard to shift southwest toward us. Ridge support is decent at this point, but unfortunately won't hold to deliver arctic air. Closer though!

Complete opposite from the 12z which pushed it in the opposite direction 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Complete opposite from the 12z which pushed it in the opposite direction 

If we had another 24-36 hours of ridge support we would see a bitter prolific northeasterly blast.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

If we had another 24-36 hours of ridge support we would see a bitter prolific northeasterly blast.

Really need an improvement on the EPS to see if it is even a possibility

[SouthHillFrosty]

Right around 3 inches on elevated surfaces

[ShawniganLake]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow with Friday/Saturday system...

 

Looks like 4-6” here.  I’m gonna be over on the Lower Mainland this weekend though. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I see that planet here too in the western sky.

That's the light on the sewage treatment plant grizz.

[RentonHill]

Day 6 last 4 runs

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Really need an improvement on the EPS to see if it is even a possibility

That would be great.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Definitely a crazy offshore upslope event for the west side. These a very unpredictable though, many times much more precip moves east than modeled. 

[RentonHill]

Day 7 

[DeepFriedEgg]

No 00z GEFS members drop the hammer...

[Snownerd3000]

12 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Also just going to be awfully hard to get it over the rockies. I've seem this movie before, often gets shunted to the east...

Wasn't Feb 19 a similar setup with the PV? 

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

No 00z GEFS members drop the hammer...

That would be more discouraging if the GFS and its ensembles have been anything close to accurate the past few weeks/months/years 

[DeepFriedEgg]

Just now, Requiem said:

That would be more discouraging if the GFS and its ensembles have been anything close to accurate the past few weeks/months/years 

Fair enough. On to the EPS I guess.

[RentonHill]

Day 7 last 4 runs. Dont think we'll know for another day or two what the post-reset setup will start to look like. 

[RentonHill]

Starry night! Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Starry night! Day 8

California hammered by rain and major snows in the mountains.

[Deweydog]

Nino.

[RentonHill]

Day 8 last 4

[Brennan]

5 hours ago, bainbridgekid said:

My girlfriend is hot

[Gradient Keeper]

[snow_wizard]

Just amazing how this brief window of clearing turned the slushy areas into a crisp crust.  Stage is nicely set for the morning snow.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

Day 8 last 4

Only consistency is greenland and southeast ridge which is good.

[Brennan]

I can see this week being the last of our winter weather for the entire season. 1994 status. 

[RentonHill]

Day Ninerrrrr

[Brennan]

We certainly have an extremely low chance of getting anything meaningful before Christmas once this pattern gets its salad tossed. Maybe; maybe we see things reorganize in January.

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Just amazing how this brief window of clearing turned the slushy areas into a crisp crust.  Stage is nicely set for the morning snow.

Really hope that precip shield shown on the EURO brings a bit heavier snow north. 

[RentonHill]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Nino.

But what about second January?

[snow_wizard]

Looking like CA may score some action this winter.  Very good news for them.

[Gradient Keeper]

Cold pool developing central Gorge/Columbia Basin Day 8+

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Brennan said:

I can see this week being the last of our winter weather for the entire season. 1994 status. 

Not likely.  That was a Nino.  This is looking like it could be something special.  The question is can we break the January curse.