KingstonWX Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: I think the stuff over the interior kind of develops out of thin air so to speak. HRRR may not be good at that type of thing. You thinking of some sort of convergence, or ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 Day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Meatyorologist Posted December 1, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 Posting about this in the twitter groupchat... What is offshore right now is convection enhanced by divergence aloft. That will stall and weaken gradually as it meanders onshore, if it even makes it to land. What the global models are so happy about tomorrow morning is a deformation band forming over the sound. That is a separate feature, as Jim has pointed out. That is the best chance for accumulating snowfall Seattle northward. 12 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: I think the stuff over the interior kind of develops out of thin air so to speak. HRRR may not be good at that type of thing. It will eventually work in. Earlier it seemed to be moving quicker but I can see the euro may be right about it not starting until 1-2am for the Seattle area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 BTW according to last night's HRRR I should no snow on the ground right now. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 Latest WRF is not good, seems to be in line with other models and with satellite and radar of the system coming in. My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 minute ago, KingstonWX said: You thinking of some sort of convergence, or ? Maybe mild / moist air meeting cold continental air or something like that. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingstonWX Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: BTW according to last night's HRRR I should no snow on the ground right now. Full disclosure, I never trust HRRR. It can be good at certain things, usually normal rain/showers and incorporating topography others don't, but it's really not all that great with complex borderline rain-snow situations. I was just mentioning it because it was topical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 It’s starting to look a decent bet that I see my first snowflakes of the season in the next 24 hours. WOWOWOWOWOWowiwiwowowowiwowowwOWOW 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 minute ago, gusky said: Latest WRF is not good, seems to be in line with other models and with satellite and radar of the system coming in. We'll have to wait and see what the ECMWF shows. The GFS operational is emphatic. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, gusky said: Latest WRF is not good, seems to be in line with other models and with satellite and radar of the system coming in. That thing does not do well with deformation snowfall at all. Consistently and comically underdoes it. If it were to be believed, I would have received 3" in Feb 2019. Toss it. 5 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 Just now, Meatyorologist said: That thing does not do well with deformation snowfall at all. Consistently and comically underdoes it. If it were to be believed, I would have received 3" in Feb 2019. Toss it. Gladly! 1 My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 Just now, Meatyorologist said: That thing does not do well with deformation snowfall at all. Consistently and comically underdoes it. If it were to be believed, I would have received 3" in Feb 2019. Toss it. I’m not sure if any model even got close with February 3rd 2019. Most models showed like 3-4” max and most of the area up here got between 6-10”. It really is just watching it unfold and seeing what happens. 2 (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 Day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingstonWX Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: That thing does not do well with deformation snowfall at all. Consistently and comically underdoes it. If it were to be believed, I would have received 3" in Feb 2019. Toss it. You would have only received 3" if your roads weren't so D**n cold. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 Lots of wasted snowfall over the ocean currently, shame. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said: I’m not sure if any model even got close with February 3rd 2019. Most models showed like 3-4” max and most of the area up here got between 6-10”. It really is just watching it unfold and seeing what happens. That forecast actually verified nicely at my place, but the windswept snow brought crazy drifting almost two feet deep in parts of the yard. 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 I see the problem on the WRF. It's way too strong on CAA / north winds tomorrow morning which just kills the moisture. Even at that it does show a stripe of snow in the morning SE of Seattle. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Maybe mild / moist air meeting cold continental air or something like that. Deformation banding 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: That thing does not do well with deformation snowfall at all. Consistently and comically underdoes it. If it were to be believed, I would have received 3" in Feb 2019. Toss it. Yup. In this case way too much north wind early in the day. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 Day 9'er Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 Well it should be snowing when I get up for work at 330 tomorrow morning, just about to wrap a bow on it for tonight unless the moisture makes a jail break inland soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 Long range turns rather quiet and boring, at least on the GFS Op.... A lot of east wind for PDX/Gorge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 9'er Wow. If we can stay this blocky all winter.... 4 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said: Well it should be snowing when I get up for work at 330 tomorrow morning, just about to wrap a bow on it for tonight unless the moisture makes a jail break inland soon. I might get some sleep for a couple hours here too shortly…hard to though exciting night! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 Just now, TacomaWx said: I might get some sleep for a couple hours here too shortly…hard to though exciting night! Stupid priorities, adulting is no fun on nights like this. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Ellsworb Posted December 1, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 sitting at just shy of 4” on the east shore of Lake Tapps!!! 15 1 East Shore of Lake Tapps Bonney Lake, WA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: Long range turns rather quiet and boring, at least on the GFS Op.... A lot of east wind for PDX/Gorge. Cold and dry is fine for a while. If the LRC really is in effect we should see something big in late Dec / early Jan. I wonder if we will see anything more than a short period of anything resembling normal in December. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 November is gonna finish -4.2 our biggest positive/Negative anomaly month since February 2019. 1.9” of snow to boot is a very solid month. Should wind up with 5.33” of rain which is about 1.3” below normal but not too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Ellsworb said: sitting at just shy of 4” on the east shore of Lake Tapps!!! Could easily be 6 or 7 by 9am. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I think the stuff over the interior kind of develops out of thin air so to speak. HRRR may not be good at that type of thing. Showers are now popping up in the Strait of Georgia that were totally not forecast by any of the models I have been looking at. 7 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 GEM progression seems somewhat realistic. Idk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 minute ago, TacomaWx said: November is gonna finish -4.2 our biggest positive/Negative anomaly month since February 2019. 1.9” of snow to boot is a very solid month. Should wind up with 5.33” of rain which is about 1.3” below normal but not too bad. I ended up with 39.4. Pretty darn cold November. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 Good to see people in the south sound scoring quite a bit! Hopefully more moisture can arrive later. 2 2024 Warm Season Stats Number of 80+ days - 2 Number of 85+ days - 2 (Warmest so far - 86) Number of 90+ days - 0 Number of 95+ days - 0 Number of 60+ lows - 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said: Showers are now popping up in the Strait of Georgia that were totally not forecast by any of the models I have been looking at. At this time I throw out all model guidance it’s just satellite and radar and streetlights. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 ICON also keeps things somewhat "together" compared to the GFS which kind of just blows it all up 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skywatcher Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 Well, we're sitting at just over 2 inches here! It's 33 degrees and still lightly snowing, so I'll take it. Definitely ending November on a positive note this year 4 1 Shred it! Greater Maple Valley area @ ~550' AGL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingstonWX Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 minute ago, TacomaWx said: At this time I throw out all model guidance it’s just satellite and radar and streetlights. In order of priority, that should be reversed... 1) Streetlights 2) Satellite 3) Radar EDIT: I guess that's not exactly reversed, but I'm keeping it. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2022 Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 Day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Ellsworb Posted December 1, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Could easily be 6 or 7 by 9am. Here’s hoping! Kids school is already cancelled tomorrow so I’m all in on a snow day!!! we had a great party in the thick of it tonight in our wall tent… cocoa, snowball fights, and lots of laughs with the family. 13 1 East Shore of Lake Tapps Bonney Lake, WA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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