November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Joe Bastardi ignored the JMA monthlies and posted on twitter a CFS run that showed east coast troughing with snow for December.

 

He is unquestionably worse than I've ever been.  His selective use of favorable CFS runs is hysterical.

[Gradient Keeper]

Who's staying up for 6z GFS?

Only 1 hour 36 minutes away!

[HighlandExperience]

He is unquestionably worse than I've ever been. His selective use of favorable CFS runs is hysterical.

Tweet from @bastardi "west coast will torch all winter. All indices show east in icebox by early December. "

[Gradient Keeper]

Tweet from @bastardi "west coast will torch all winter. All indices show east in icebox by early December. "

LMAO :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

[Deweydog]

Two degree diurnal swing at PDX today.

 

That's hott.

[snow_wizard]

Tweet from @bastardi "west coast will torch all winter. All indices show east in icebox by early December. "

Nooo....tell me it's not so.

[snow_wizard]

Some improvements with the 00z ECMWF

Actually significant improvement. Looks like three chilly troughs in the next 10 days. At day 10 there's a nice Aleutian ridge.

[Gradient Keeper]

Actually significant improvement. Looks like three chilly troughs in the next 10 days. At day 10 there's a nice Aleutian ridge.

True. 500mb pattern at day 10 does look promising. Possible building SE US ridge too.

 

00z WRF

Tonight's run shows a few things. First, quite gusty, strong east wind on Friday and Saturday. Next, and what is really nice to see is colder air finally shows up over Alaska, Yukon, and throughout the Canadian Prairies. Not truly bitter air, but as we are nearing mid-November this is what we should be seeing for crying out loud. It looks like to me as we end November the cold air to our north could be there in large supply and would be poised to drop southward through British Columbia/Alberta should the 500mb pattern offshore become favorable.

[Phil]

Holy smokes. Could the PV actually get taken down by Thanksgiving?

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png

[Phil]

Legit classic +PDO look in the NPAC now.

 

Strong GOA vortex + boreal winter re-emergence = this:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

[Brennan]

There's just no way you say Cowboys are not a contender at 8-1 and 8 game winning streak. It's how there winning games by pure dominating with there offense. They will be hard to stop in the playoffs and are the team to beat, steelers came close but ended up losing.

 

As for you're last sentence i 100% agree, Romo with his experience and how good this offense is can take them too a Super Bowl. I expect a Seattle Cowboys show down in the playoffs with Romo playing. Will be epic, and I really don't buy that the Cowboys have been playing easy teams. Giants, Eagles, Steelers and Redskins are not easy games/wins. At the end of the day good chance Seahawks Cowboys will link up and it would be a great football game to watch.

Browns, Bengals, Niners, Bears, Packers...

 

I stayed up for the 6z. Not staying up for the 12z.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS was pretty nice. Any further amplification and we would see a nice cold shot.

 

12z GFS in 4 hours 4 minutes!

[westcoastexpat]

Legit classic +PDO look in the NPAC now.

 

Strong GOA vortex + boreal winter re-emergence = this:

 

 

 

What years featured a very weak Nina and +PDO?

 

I know that both 1983-84 and 1995-96 fall under that category. They have been really popular analogs for this winter.

[TT-SEA]

Very loud thunder here just now.    That was a surprise when it happened.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

17 days now with over 1/2" of rain since October 1st. Some cooler air starting to filter in now. Temp down to 49 after a midnight high of 54. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Should have our first freeze tomorrow night...

[jcmcgaffey]

About 1.20" of rain overnight in Seattle.  Surprised by that amount as it was somewhat clear skies when going to bed around 11pm and wasn't raining this morning when I got up at 6:30.  Figured it didn't rain much last night but surprised when I looked online.

[FroYoBro]

I really hope the radar down here works for our ultra mega snowstorms in December. 

[Front Ranger]

Legit classic +PDO look in the NPAC now.

 

Strong GOA vortex + boreal winter re-emergence = this:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

Actually looks quite different than last year at this time across the North Pacific, though. There was hardly any cool SSTA to be found.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

One year ago this morning... I forgot that it snowed this early last year.

 

[Front Ranger]

The North Pacific SSTA pattern is pretty unusual this year. I'd say the closest matches are 2003 and 1998.

[HighlandExperience]

One year ago this morning... I forgot that it snowed this early last year.

 

Last winter sucked

[MossMan]

Cant wait to get a real weather station someday, the amount of rain since last evening up here has been insane!

[Jesse]

Actually looks quite different than last year at this time across the North Pacific, though. There was hardly any cool SSTA to be found.

 

anomnight.11.16.2015.gif

At very least proof that not all +PDO regimes are created equally or even arrived upon in the same way.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

One year ago this morning... I forgot that it snowed this early last year.

 

 

Yeah I had 2" a year ago today. 

[Jesse]

Looking like our first pass level snow of the season in the Cascades starting later today.

[Jesse]

PDX may have spiked to 60 this morning.

[stuffradio]

Yeah I had 2" a year ago today. 

I had no accumulating snow last winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I had no accumulating snow last winter.

 

I had around 12", but I live at 1600'. 

[Front Ranger]

At very least proof that not all +PDO regimes are created equally or even arrived upon in the same way.

 

Right. And I think it's evident of a North Pacific pattern still in transition. I do not expect that we'll have +1 and higher PDO values all through the winter like we did last year. Much more likely that we see at least one month go negative.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Maybe it is just me but I am starting to see a really decent setup around hour 288 and beyond on todays 12z GFS (la la land). Very nice northerly flow that allows cool to very cool air to flow due south over the pacific into PNW. Decent ridge location and more. I like this setup mainly due to the fact the cold is further west, prevents it from sliding east of the mountains and allows low pressure to develop and slide right into our area. Not bad for baby steps. I feel it may only become more promising in the coming weeks... There will be some push back and delay as always.

 

Hour 288

 

 

Fantasy Hour 384

 

[bainbridgekid]

One year ago this morning... I forgot that it snowed this early last year.

 

Does your son ever wear long pants? 

 

My 13 year old cousin wore shorts in Chicago last Christmas during a huge 5" sleet storm. Something about teenage boys.

[Kayla]

Maybe it is just me but I am starting to see a really decent setup around hour 288 and beyond on todays 12z GFS (la la land). Very nice northerly flow that allows cool to very cool air to flow due south over the pacific into PNW. Decent ridge location and more. I like this setup mainly due to the fact the cold is further west, prevents it from sliding east of the mountains and allows low pressure to develop and slide right into our area. Not bad for baby steps. I feel it may only become more promising in the coming weeks... There will be some push back and delay as always.

 

Hour 288

Screen Shot 2016-11-15 at 10.18.20 AM.png

 

Fantasy Hour 384

Screen Shot 2016-11-15 at 10.19.16 AM.png

 

Similar setup being shown on the ECMWF at hour 240 as well. Lots of cold to very cold air in Northern BC sliding south on the 12z runs today. Definitely a promising sign for the end of the month and into the beginning of December.

[Timmy]

Maybe it is just me but I am starting to see a really decent setup around hour 288 and beyond on todays 12z GFS (la la land). Very nice northerly flow that allows cool to very cool air to flow due south over the pacific into PNW. Decent ridge location and more. I like this setup mainly due to the fact the cold is further west, prevents it from sliding east of the mountains and allows low pressure to develop and slide right into our area. Not bad for baby steps. I feel it may only become more promising in the coming weeks... There will be some push back and delay as always.

 

Hour 288

Screen Shot 2016-11-15 at 10.18.20 AM.png

 

Fantasy Hour 384

Screen Shot 2016-11-15 at 10.19.16 AM.png

What's with all the white space/missing data on tropical tidbits?

[Kayla]

What's with all the white space/missing data on tropical tidbits?

 

The terrain is at or above 850mb or ~4,800ft MSL.

[Jesse]

It would be cool if today was our last 60 degree day until mid-March.

 

#realwintersmatter

[stuffradio]

It would be cool if today was our last 60 degree day until mid-March.

 

#realwintersmatter

I would only agree if we shortly get lots of snow and not 33 F rain.

 

The ECMWF deterministic gives me some snow in less than 10 days.

[TT-SEA]

Does your son ever wear long pants? 

 

My 13 year old cousin wore shorts in Chicago last Christmas during a huge 5" sleet storm. Something about teenage boys.

 

 

Only wears pants when skiing.  

[catnip]

The terrain is at or above 850mb or ~4,800ft MSL.

 

I think that is new though, because in the past it was still shaded.

[Front Ranger]

Definitely the most promising Euro run yet. Slowly but surely, more cold air is seeping over to our side of the globe.