Phil Posted November 25, 2016 Report Share Posted November 25, 2016 FWIW, I feel very strongly that as long as February doesn't flip into a +AO/+EPO, there will be a very significant Arctic event that month sometime. Don't want to get too far ahead of myself here, but I think there are a number of indicators that favor such a progression. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted November 25, 2016 Report Share Posted November 25, 2016 Your comments are getting pretty tiresome. You should let us in on your analysis. Thanks for insulting the rest of us also. I don't think I've insulted anyone. We're on the right track......Things are falling into place......We are due......I saw an extra furry squirrel......I feel it..... All a bunch of hyperbole and exuberance and not based in reality. HR 384 on the 18Z is just that. Crap. Now maybe I have. I'm looking at the same models as you and I doubt what you see in ten days will verify. The ridge isn't sharp enough. It's too flat. The low going in near Hawaii is here on run one and gone on another. My guess is the first big blast of winter will likely dive south around Montana and east. I don't consider this a warning shot. It will flat out miss us. How is that a warning? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 So we have to wait through ANOTHER major snowstorm before we get to an Arctic outbreak??? Fudgecicles!!!Haha, it looks quite cold to me, just not historically noteworthy. By historically noteworthy, I mean something like a western version of February 2015. Could be a dry blast if that's significant, I really don't know. Just pointing out the potential. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 I don't think I've insulted anyone. We're on the right track......Things are falling into place......We are due......I saw an extra furry squirrel......I feel it..... All a bunch of hyperbole and exuberance and not based in reality. HR 384 on the 18Z is just that. Crap. Now maybe I have. I'm looking at the same models as you and I doubt what you see in ten days will verify. The ridge isn't sharp enough. It's too flat. The low going in near Hawaii is here on run one and gone on another. My guess is the first big blast of winter will likely dive south around Montana and east. I don't consider this a warning shot. It will flat out miss us. How is that a warning? Hour 384? Have you even looked at the models recently? Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Best case for early December I think is an early December 1992 type event. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Hour 384? Have you even looked at the models recently? I guess we'll see what happens and leave it at that. I hope for your sake you are right. A nice pre-Christmas cold snap would be satisfying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Modeling aside, I'm confident in a cooler than average December across the PNW, with an opportunity for a significant lowland snowstorm between December 20th and January 5th, followed by a period of ridging thereafter. I don't see a significant Arctic blast until at least late January, as far as widespread cold is concerned, with February offering the best opportunity for some very cold air. I think there's a very good chance of significant Arctic blasts throughout this winter, Dec-Feb. Just a matter of who gets hit, much like 2013-14 and 2010-11. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Haha, it looks quite cold to me, just not historically noteworthy. By historically noteworthy, I mean something like a western version of February 2015. Could be a dry blast if that's significant, I really don't know. Just pointing out the potential.Well it's been a couple years since we've set some all time record lows, so we are overdue... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 I don't think I've insulted anyone. We're on the right track......Things are falling into place......We are due......I saw an extra furry squirrel......I feel it..... All a bunch of hyperbole and exuberance and not based in reality. HR 384 on the 18Z is just that. Crap. Now maybe I have. I'm looking at the same models as you and I doubt what you see in ten days will verify. The ridge isn't sharp enough. It's too flat. The low going in near Hawaii is here on run one and gone on another. My guess is the first big blast of winter will likely dive south around Montana and east. I don't consider this a warning shot. It will flat out miss us. How is that a warning?I feel as though you haven't even looked at the models, and just combined all the negative comments you could find over the past few days into one comment. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 I feel as though you haven't even looked at the models, and just combined all the negative comments you could find over the past few days into one comment. How could I miss the models? I've been reading every page of this months posts and looking at them on my own as well. Trust me. I've looked at the models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 http://i.imgur.com/wLuyliY.jpg 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 The 18z ensemble is the best yet. The mean drops to -6 and a number of members -8 or below. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 My wife bought me new long johns today during the shopping extravaganza. Has to mean something... 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 98/99 and 07/08 analogs popping up all over the place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 I love that graphic! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl Bonner Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Looks like we have much to be thankful for, wishcast-wise, this holiday weekend! Still cold across Siberia at the same time that another arctic airmass pushes into first Yukon and then BC/Alberta: 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 http://i.imgur.com/7drHiqr.gifThat is going to be every single one of us when the first flakes start falling! Well except for Fred and Phil. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 98/99 and 07/08 analogs popping up all over the place. I didn't see those on the CPC analogs today. Looks like Dec 1971 is the analog of the day. I could go for that any day of the week. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 That is going to be every single one of us when the first flakes start falling! Well except for Fred and Phil.They've both seen flakes already 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 The 18z ensemble is the best yet. The mean drops to -6 and a number of members -8 or below. Definitely not as good as the Euro or Canadian ensembles, though. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 I didn't see those on the CPC analogs today. Looks like Dec 1971 is the analog of the day. I could go for that any day of the week. Yeah, I'm not sure where he's seeing 2007/1998 everywhere. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Definitely not as good as the Euro or Canadian ensembles, though.Good thing the GFS is the nose picker of the group. Finally a dry day here! Also lots of water still over the roadways around my area. Was able to get some leaves taken care of before the Apple Cup. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Yeah, I'm not sure where he's seeing 2007/1998 everywhere.1998 was ok! But from what I remember 2007 sucked as the snow level was constantly about 200 or so feet above me for what seemed like weeks. So frustrating!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 1998 was ok! But from what I remember 2007 sucked as the snow level was constantly about 200 or so feet above me for what seemed like weeks. So frustrating!! In western OR no lowland snow occurred in 2007. And I would even call the Gale storm rather tropical temp wise. But I hear the mountains got pounded in that one. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 I'm at 11.41 inches of rain this month so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 2007 felt like it was on the cusp of greatness. Very annoyed over the constant 34 degree rain. I imagine global warming ruined that winter I recall 60+ degree rain a couple days in Dec 2007. I thought that was wonderful actually. Humid too. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Interesting how the rain fell here the past two days. The heaviest precipitation was definitely focused north and west of here, especially west. 0.89" yesterday and 1.28" today. Looks like a seasonably mild 48/41 today. Third straight sub 50 high... It may be awhile until I see another. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 I recall 60+ degree rain a couple days in Dec 2007. I thought that was wonderful actually. Humid too. Heretic. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 I think there's a very good chance of significant Arctic blasts throughout this winter, Dec-Feb. Just a matter of who gets hit, much like 2013-14 and 2010-11.Based on the observed, ongoing, and climatologically favored progressions of the tropical forcings, stratosphere, and interactive waveguides, I think the first window (for the western states) is from mid/late December to early January, followed by another window in February. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Based on the observed, ongoing, and climatologically favored progressions of the tropical forcings, stratosphere, and interactive waveguides, I think the first window (for the western states) is from mid/late December to early January, followed by another window in February. So the window is open most the winter, then. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 98/99 and 07/08 analogs popping up all over the place.Uh, no.. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Based on the observed, ongoing, and climatologically favored progressions of the tropical forcings, stratosphere, and interactive waveguides, I think the first window (for the western states) is from mid/late December to early January, followed by another window in February.So you are thinking no to an early December warning shot. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 [ Model Countdown ]Next up....*00z GFS in 2 hours 1 minute00z GEM/CMC in 3 hours 1 minutes00z ECMWF in 4 hours 18 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 They've both seen flakes alreadyGetting drunk on an inch of snow is such a PNW thing. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 In western OR no lowland snow occurred in 2007. And I would even call the Gale storm rather tropical temp wise. But I hear the mountains got pounded in that one.Yeah, 2007 sucked balls. So did 1998. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 So you are thinking no to an early December warning shot.I think anything before December 10th is mostly a modeling tease, yeah. A few degrees cooler than average maybe? I'm watching for a significant EPO/AO tank starting around the Holidays, however. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl Bonner Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Based on the observed, ongoing, and climatologically favored progressions of the tropical forcings, stratosphere, and interactive waveguides, I think the first window (for the western states) is from mid/late December to early January, followed by another window in February. 1951 and 1989 and 2008 and 2012 were all La Nina, and look what happened in March those years.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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