Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[Siggy44]

Lezak says he is expecting a system the first week in Jan. to hit KC

[james1976]

Whats the Euro verdict?

[jaster220]

Whats the Euro verdict?

 

I heard he's presently out to lunch

[OKwx2k4]

I heard he's presently out to lunch

OP euro is in lala land this time around. ENS control is still holding its consistency from the past 4 runs but with more spread among members this round as evident in the means.

[CentralNebWeather]

OP euro is in lala land this time around. ENS control is still holding its consistency from the past 4 runs but with more spread among members this round as evident in the means.

So what you're saying is the snowblower might remain in the garage again?

[OKwx2k4]

So what you're saying is the snowblower might remain in the garage again?

Maybe for you folks up there. :/

[Madtown]

Put a fork in er. Epic winter fail. Oh well. Mid Jan and scratching to get ground cover is hardly historic.

[Money]

OP euro is in lala land this time around. ENS control is still holding its consistency from the past 4 runs but with more spread among members this round as evident in the means.

I keep thinking you're talking about the sub forum then I realize you're talking about your area lol

[jaster220]

Looking out further (a week), 12z Euro 500mb looks nice for a true pan-handle to OHV track, if we can just trend towards something amplifying in that time-frame. So far, there's puzzle pieces, but nobody putting them in place yet..

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

I keep thinking you're talking about the sub forum then I realize you're talking about your area lol

Yeah. I'm sorry. I'll elaborate a little better from now on.

[Tom]

18z GFS liking TX Panhandle and our lone buddy OK late next week...

[Tony]

This pattern we are in really really sucks. Not much happening the next 10 days as well as not much happened this week. Boring for sure.

[Money]

18z GFS liking TX Panhandle and our lone buddy OK late next week...

 

Solid.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122918/210/snku_acc.conus.png

[hlcater]

lol at that screw hole over Iowa. Would be funny in a bad way if it panned out.

[OKwx2k4]

18z GFS liking TX Panhandle and our lone buddy OK late next week...

Lol. Yeah. I don't really trust the 18z too much though. Pretty sweet to look at though and if that thing can pause for awhile in the TX panhandle and deepen more, that's a possibility.

[Tom]

Solid.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122918/210/snku_acc.conus.png

All we need now is for that dang SE ridge work some magic after it dumps snow in TX/OK and track NE!

[Tom]

Lol. Yeah. I don't really trust the 18z too much though. Pretty sweet to look at though and if that thing can pause for awhile in the TX panhandle and deepen more, that's a possibility.

12 Euro's track was a bit more NW once it got east of you, right? Did it even have any snow in the OV?

[Tony]

lol at that screw hole over Iowa. Would be funny in a bad way if it panned out.

Don't forget Illinois

[St Paul Storm]

MPX favoring the Euro and GEFS mean solutions for now, with all options on the table ranging from a dusting to well over 12". Alrighty then.

[OKwx2k4]

Tom, this is the EPS control.

 

If I had to guess right now from this far out, my honest prediction for my exact location would be somewhere between 2.5 and 4 inches. This is just based off patterning and past qpf during similar events. Not necessarily based on modeling.

[Niko]

The EC might be looking at something big around the 7th -9th timeframe.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016122912/gem_asnow_neus_38.png

[GDR]

I'd say, almost a years total here

[jaster220]

The EC might be looking at something big around the 7th -9th timeframe.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016122912/gem_asnow_neus_38.png

A lot of that's from today's storm though.

[CentralNebWeather]

Let's see if the gfs has any good news tonight.

[St Paul Storm]

Let's see if the gfs has any good news tonight.

Doesn't look like it so far. Garbage.

[Money]

Doesn't look like it so far. Garbage.

GGEM looks good for you

[CentralNebWeather]

00z gfs with the ring of snowlessness in the nation's midsection. Craptastic.

[GDR]

Nice! Getting closer to spring at least

[St Paul Storm]

GGEM looks good for you

Pivotal and TT both are stuck at hr 78. I hope the Euro still shows something on the 0z. The GGEM going solo is tough to get excited about.

[james1976]

Whew. I guess its midwest turn to take a long break. Hope OK and folks down south get something finally. And prolly Dakotas and MN cash grab again.

[CentralNebWeather]

Can't make a run like this up. 384 hours and notta for most. Gfs has been on this year so not doubting it.

[CentralNebWeather]

Canadian is no better. Donuts anyone?

[gabel23]

Can't make a run like this up. 384 hours and notta for most. Gfs has been on this year so not doubting it.IMG_0853.GIF

 

 

Canadian is no better. Donuts anyone?IMG_0854.PNG

You know, this winter has been such a crap shoot anyway lets go for the record least snowiest ever!! 

[OKwx2k4]

I like it. Going to sit there and spin. I doubt it comes out of there as a sheared out POS though.

[St Paul Storm]

GFS trending towards the Euro, but now thermals are a concern here. Nothing is easy in the winter of 2016-2017.

[jaster220]

For those excited about the coming cold wave, here's Cohen's recent write-up outlining the real science behind "it's gonna get cold, real cold":

 

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

 

[Tony]

Our only hope for measureable snow in this pattern will be if a clipper or two can find it's way into our area....let's hope.

[CentralNebWeather]

Hard for snow plow operators to make any money in a winter like this. I know several guys who have sold their equipment in the last few years and got second jobs since snow has become more rare. I know some on this board rely on snow removal for income. What a horrible winter so far for some of them.

[Tom]

Well, what do ya know...Dakotas with another major snow storm???

[CentralNebWeather]

Well, what do ya know...Dakotas with another major snow storm???

Tom you are supposed to bring us hope. Ha. I guess it is just one of those years. Can hope for something later on, but those don't tend to keep a snow cover for any great length.