December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

I hope this coating of snow here this morning is some kind of 'warning shot' or something leading to a very snowy couple of months.   

 

Not sure anyone has thought about this concept yet... just throwing it out there!  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Coldest January since 1980?

[bainbridgekid]

Wow GFS Ensembles look good. 

The mean 850's never gets above -1 for SEA and is down between -4 and -5 for much of the extended. Pretty nice signal for that far out.

[Skagit Weather]

Looking more and more like a "December to remember" type of month.

 

As long as it continues until after I get back to Washington in a couple of weeks I'll be happy. I would be sad to miss all the fun and have it be torching the entire time I'm home.

[TT-SEA]

Sorry... one more.   Finally sunshine in Seattle!!     And the shadow of the space needle in the view.     I love cold air in the winter.   

 

[Weather101]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

As long as it continues until after I get back to Washington in a couple of weeks I'll be happy. I would be sad to miss all the fun and have it be torching the entire time I'm home.

I feel ya. I'm going to out of town for a week or so soon

[MossMan]

As long as it continues until after I get back to Washington in a couple of weeks I'll be happy. I would be sad to miss all the fun and have it be torching the entire time I'm home.

Never ever leave the state during a Neutral or Niña years!!!!!!! My Mexico trip isn't until May...think I'm safe by then!

[luvssnow_spokane]

35.1 and drizzle. So close! 

[Heavy Snow]

I know who "Arctic Blast" is now. lol

I won't reveal his identity, but I figured it out in the facebook groups...

 

SilverFallsAndrew, I shouldn't even have to do this but this is the only place I talk about weather. I'm not a member of any facebook groups. I just want to clear that up. Why would I use my own personal facebook to talk about weather in the tone I can do here. You should know better not to see or believe everything you see on the Internet. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Front Ranger]

Sorry... one more.   Finally sunshine in Seattle!!     And the shadow of the space needle in the view.     I love cold air in the winter.   

 

 

There's been several days there lately with a fair amount of sunshine. Much more than your place, apparently.

[Trainwreck]

 

Mark Nelsen?[/quote

 

No way. It's Rob or Jesse.

[Front Ranger]

Euro looks slightly warmer in the near range and seems to scour out cold air a little faster than previous runs.

[Front Ranger]

Euro looks slightly warmer in the near range and seems to scour out cold air a little faster than previous runs.

 

However, at day 4 (Thu), it's still slower to scour it out than the GFS.

[Weather101]

[luminen]

 

Mark Nelsen?[/quote

 

No way. It's Rob or Jesse.

 

nah, it's Kevin Martin.  <_>

[MossMan]

Euro looks slightly warmer in the near range and seems to scour out cold air a little faster than previous runs.

Well shoot. Everyone was so upbeat this morning, too. It's a shame.

[Front Ranger]

Looking good with the reboot at day 5.

 

[Front Ranger]

Well shoot. Everyone was so upbeat this morning, too. It's a shame.

 

It's not a big difference at all.

[MossMan]

It's not a big difference at all.

Good!

[Front Ranger]

12z Euro ups the snow amounts for most of Western WA through Tuesday compared to the 00z. Definitely trending a little towards the WRF - but not showing nearly the same amount. Starting to show a CZ signature for King County though.

 

As AlpineExperience said, this will be a great test for the WRF. I have a feeling the WRF will be closer to being right than the Euro, but WRF is probably overdoing it a touch.

 

The Wizard with 1.5"!

[bainbridgekid]

Even the weather models are getting excited about our snow chances . . .  

 

Better see a doctor if it stays snow longer than 4 hours.

 

[dairyd]

Winds not at blizzard levels on Monday but they kick up on Tuesday.  Looks like enough snow (4-6) to push around to make a mess of things.  Could get interesting up here for a few days.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snow advisories

[MossMan]

Encouraging AFD from Seattle this morning!

[Jesse]

Even the weather models are getting excited about our snow chances . . .

 

Better see a doctor if it stays snow longer than 4 hours.

 

15310636_10154073723682606_285108884_n.png

Idk why but I find this kind of humor creepy since I know you're a first grade teacher.

[Perturbed Member]

PDX NWS

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1037 AM PST SUN DEC 4 2016

.SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP DOWN TO CLOSE TO THE VALLEY FLOORS LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS AT THE VALLEY FLOORS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST ROADS COOL OFF AND THE SNOW
BEGINS TO STICK.

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM
PST MONDAY ABOVE 700 FEET FOR THE GREATER PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER
METRO AREAS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ABOVE 500 FEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PST MONDAY.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE
MAIN PERIOD OF SNOW MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* SNOW LEVELS...LOWERING TO 500 TO 1000 FEET TONIGHT...AND DOWN TO
CLOSE TO THE VALLEY FLOORS MONDAY.

* ACCUMULATION...1 TO 2 OR 3 INCHES ABOVE ABOUT 700 FEET... WITH A
TRACE TO LESS THAN AN INCH BELOW 700 FEET.

[Deweydog]

Euro looks slightly warmer in the near range and seems to scour out cold air a little faster than previous runs.

F*ck you.

[Phil]

The 12z GEFS mean is a thing of beauty. Perfect orientation of the tropical forcings and off-equator forcing, hence a relocation of the next round of wavebreaking right over AK. Mid/late December starting to look closer to how I envisioned it.

[Perturbed Member]

I'm impressed with how consistent the WRF has been with pretty much showing the same sounding for 4-10AM tomorrow at PDX and nearly the same snow amounts for days now. I'll be even more impressed if it actually verifies even though it is almost certainly overdone.

[Kayla]

PDX NWS

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR

1037 AM PST SUN DEC 4 2016

 

.SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP DOWN TO CLOSE TO THE VALLEY FLOORS LATE

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS AT THE VALLEY FLOORS

WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST ROADS COOL OFF AND THE SNOW

BEGINS TO STICK.

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM

PST MONDAY ABOVE 700 FEET FOR THE GREATER PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER

METRO AREAS...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ABOVE 500 FEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT

FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PST MONDAY.

 

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE

MAIN PERIOD OF SNOW MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

 

* SNOW LEVELS...LOWERING TO 500 TO 1000 FEET TONIGHT...AND DOWN TO

CLOSE TO THE VALLEY FLOORS MONDAY.

 

* ACCUMULATION...1 TO 2 OR 3 INCHES ABOVE ABOUT 700 FEET... WITH A

TRACE TO LESS THAN AN INCH BELOW 700 FEET.

 

Rather vague and safe...but at the same time sounds about right.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 to 6 expected tomorrow at mi casa

[bainbridgekid]

Idk why but I find this kind of humor creepy since I know you're a first grade teacher.

We are just normal people 

 

And it's 2nd grade. 

[FroYoBro]

I really feel for the people who live at 690 feet. Suckers. 

[Front Ranger]

Looks like near-ish miss to the east with the Euro. Mother lode PV about to drop into north central US at day 9.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like near-ish miss to the east with the Euro. Mother lode PV about to drop into north central US at day 9.

Yep pretty chilly though

[Phil]

Y'all should be drooling over the 12z GEFS. Perfect EAMT/NAMT synchronicity w/ the tropical forcing/poleward WAFs. That's how you build an AK/Arctic block and downstream SE ridge.

[MossMan]

Looks like near-ish miss to the east with the Euro. Mother lode PV about to drop into north central US at day 9.

Slight tweaking and we are golden!

[Heavy Snow]

Y'all should be drooling over the 12z GEFS. Perfect EAMT/NAMT synchronicity w/ the tropical forcing/poleward WAFs. That's how you build an AK/Arctic block and downstream SE ridge.

 

Yup, I just saw it. Looks magnificent!