Front Ranger Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Yep pretty chilly though For sure. And pretty close to something really good days 9-10. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Y'all should be drooling over the 12z GEFS. Perfect EAMT/NAMT synchronicity w/ the tropical forcing/poleward WAFs. That's how you build an AK/Arctic block and downstream SE ridge.Also, via this particular conduit, you guys wouldn't even need stratospheric help to maintain the proper waveguide. Perfect way to prevent a tropospheric coupling with the PV so long as the tropical/extratropical forcing connection holds. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Y'all should be drooling over the 12z GEFS. Perfect EAMT/NAMT synchronicity w/ the tropical forcing/poleward WAFs. That's how you build an AK/Arctic block and downstream SE ridge. I'm just loving the blocking we're seeing this season so far, with no sign of it going away any time soon. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Y'all should be drooling over the 12z GEFS. Perfect EAMT/NAMT synchronicity w/ the tropical forcing/poleward WAFs. That's how you build an AK/Arctic block and downstream SE ridge.We need some consistency. Two days ago long range ensembles looked nothing like this. The CFS believe it or not DID show this setup coming around mid month about a week ago... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 I'm just loving the blocking we're seeing this season so far, with no sign of it going away any time soon.Same. That recent MJO passage appears to have rejiggered the background wavetrain just enough (broadened Walker Cell and slightly retracted Pacific Hadley Cell) to allow the more classic Niña mode of +QBO/off-equator WPAC forcing to take hold and build the NPAC anticyclone poleward. Ironically, the fact the Niña background was so weak earlier was probably a benefit..otherwise it might have resisted the intraseasonal/MJO forcing that altered it in your favor. Amazing how complicated and unpredictable this stuff can be. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 1 1/3 km WRF shows 2-4 inch totals for tomorrow morning across the PDX metro. Soundings right before precip arrives indicate about 34-35F at the surface: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d4/kpdx.24.0000.snd.gif By 7 AM, airmass is saturated and surface is 32-33F with about 2 inches of snow on the ground and a bit more snow to fall:http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d4/kpdx.27.0000.snd.gif In reality it will probably be just a bit too warm for this to happen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Some clearing skies out here now... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Lots of sun and 39 degrees currently with a stiff northerly breeze...time to get the Christmas tree! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 1 1/3 km WRF shows 2-4 inch totals for tomorrow morning across the PDX metro. Soundings right before precip arrives indicate about 34-35F at the surface: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d4/kpdx.24.0000.snd.gif By 7 AM, airmass is saturated and surface is 32-33F with about 2 inches of snow on the ground and a bit more snow to fall:http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d4/kpdx.27.0000.snd.gif In reality it will probably be just a bit too warm for this to happen.Timing and precip rates look good, though. I like the idea of a general 1-2" above 200' in that 6am to 10am period. I don't think anything will stick at sea level. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Just got our first dusting in Mukilteo in the last half hour. Now please please please setup a strong convergence zone all the way thru tuesday 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Hail covered roads currently at the Clinton ferry dock on Whidbey Island. Nice little CZ up there. My friend who lives up there also sent a picture of her yard covered in hail. 3 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Timing and precip rates look good, though. I like the idea of a general 1-2" above 200' in that 6am to 10am period. I don't think anything will stick at sea level. 1-2 inches @ 200' and above would cover most of the metro and would probably make most weather nerds here happy. Probably trace at best for downtown/airport. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016120412/images_d4/msnow24.36.0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Base at the Summit at Snoqualmie got 19 inches of snow over night. Now at 30 inches at the base and at least 60 inches on top (although that number has not been updated for awhile). They are assessing the situation this morning and it sounds like they will be opening soon. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Everett reporting light snow and 36 now. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Pretty fun morning ... Dropped rapidly down to 34.2 this morning with pretty heavy ice pellet shower. It was fun to see my temp go from 39 to 34 in less than an hour. Warmed back up now (which was expected) but having this and knowing it can only get better is awesome! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Timing and precip rates look good, though. I like the idea of a general 1-2" above 200' in that 6am to 10am period. I don't think anything will stick at sea level. Agreed. Can't really keep ignoring the WRF and soundings at this point. I'm thinking the NWS will be tweaking things this afternoon showing accumulations down to ~200'. Timing is great for accumulations, not so great for commuters tomorrow morning, especially over Sylvan Hill/Burnside etc. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016120412/images_d4/msnow24.36.0000.gif Shows 5-8" of snowfall for me over the next 24 hours, I'll take it! 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Also, via this particular conduit, you guys wouldn't even need stratospheric help to maintain the proper waveguide. Perfect way to prevent a tropospheric coupling with the PV so long as the tropical/extratropical forcing connection holds. I just took a look at updated run of all the 12z GFS ensembles at Day 12 and Day 15 and lots of members have an Arctic Blast for the PNW on either on those days. 11/20 members or 55% show an Arctic Blast at one point in their run. I've never seen this many ensembles this bullish on Arctic air ever n the long range. I have a feeling your forecast of a possible Arctic Blast for us mid/late December will be right. http://i.imgur.com/3kSu39V.gifhttp://i.imgur.com/OsnTibz.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Shows 5-8" of snowfall for me over the next 24 hours, I'll take it!I am still a little bummed it STILL shows a trace to nothing for my location here in the swamp... I had hoped it would have improved but been pretty consistent. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Gorgeous at Snoqualmie Pass now... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Ah crap! An error occurredYou have reached your quota of positive votes for the day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Ah crap! An error occurredYou have reached your quota of positive votes for the day Don't you hate that!!! <_> Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 HRRR likes some accumulation in the N Interior and Vancouver BC area tonight. 3 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 HRRR likes some accumulation in the N Interior and Vancouver BC area tonight. hrrr.gif It is almost time to start watching the HRRR radar loops for tomorrow morning in the Portland area. I always like following the HRRR for moisture when events are close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 HRRR likes some accumulation in the N Interior and Vancouver BC area tonight. hrrr.gif Hopefully Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 I am still a little bummed it STILL shows a trace to nothing for my location here in the swamp... I had hoped it would have improved but been pretty consistent. You're at 560'...you should do fine over the next couple days. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 It is almost time to start watching the HRRR radar loops for tomorrow morning in the Portland area. I always like following the HRRR for moisture when events are close. Its already time.. some updates run the loop out through tomorrow night. Here is one that did go all the way out. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2016120415&plotName=1ref_t1sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=37&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=36&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Mark Nelsen?[/quote No way. It's Rob or Jesse.Well, considering I am Rob........ Who are you by the way??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 18z NAM is looking quite juicy with precip tonight and tomorrow morning. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Radar shoving the pscz towards Arlington now!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainwreck Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Well, considering I am Rob........ Who are you by the way???This High Desert Mat from Marks blog. Over in Redmond Or Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Absolutely dumping snow and sleet here again. Secondary c-zone just fired up in the last 20 minutes right over my area. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 This High Desert Mat from Marks blog. Over in Redmond OrAhhh, alrighty. You should be real white coming up. Big winter ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Absolutely dumping snow and sleet here again. Secondary c-zone just fired up in the last 20 minutes right over my area.Yeah I am literally watching the UW radar and saw it fire up rather rapidly. nice! Enjoy! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Any chance c zone gets over bothell or mountlake terrence Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 The WRF is currently showing more snow over Victoria in the next 48 hours than there has been in the past 4 years. That said the snowfall totals it's shown over the Island have been pretty inconsistent. It hasn't made up its mind on whether things are going to stall and dump over East Vancouver Island, or slide south and given widespread totals of 2"+. I've learned to be skeptical of the totals this model shows, often it underdoes it in the initial snow for full on Arctic blasts and overdoes it in more marginal/overrunning situations. This time it's a tough call because this is setting up to be more of a hybrid, not quite a traditional Artic blast but much colder than the more typical marginal events where the WRF shows large accumulations with 925mb temps never falling below -2C. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016120412/images_d4/wa_snow48.48.0000.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 Pretty much all models picking up on significant CZ possibilities over the next 36+ hours. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 The WRF is currently showing more snow over Victoria in the next 48 hours than there has been in the past 4 years. That said the snowfall totals it's shown over the Island have been pretty inconsistent. It hasn't made up its mind on whether things are going to stall and dump over East Vancouver Island, or slide south and given widespread totals of 2"+. I've learned to be skeptical of the totals this model shows, often it underdoes it in the initial snow for full on Arctic blasts and overdoes it in more marginal/overrunning situations. This time it's a tough call because this is setting up to be more of a hybrid, not quite a traditional Artic blast but much colder than the more typical marginal events where the WRF shows large accumulations with 925mb temps never falling below -2C. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016120412/images_d4/wa_snow48.48.0000.gifI like the purples near Shawnigan lake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 So..here's how mid/late December could overperform all expectations, via a troposphere/stratosphere PV coupling right over west/central Canada. Some modeling (including the 12z GFS/GEFS) sends WAFz into the stratPV via the NATL, following the ongoing CW event. So, mass flux increases upon propagation into western Eurasia, and an appendage of the PV strengthens over west/central Canada following the wave2 cycle response. So, when we cycle from wave2 back into wave1, the dominant PV lobe consolidates over western Canada, while the Eurasian portion of the PV gets blasted. So, via that GOA/EPO ridge, the big vortex in west/central Canada can couple with the PV there while the wave1/MT shot out of Eurasia bombards the polar domain with WAFz/blocking, forcing the entire lower PV column into western Canada. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5309EB33-342B-4F03-890F-10DB6F57E9D0_zpsdptzbzow.jpg Then we'd have a mostly coupled PV sitting somewhere in the vicinity of Alberta, possibly ready to unload over the region if we can keep wave driving/blocking going. So while we'd be playing with possible +EPO fire if the wave driving fails, it could also turn into something historic if everything is of sufficient amplitude and is timed properly. 6 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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