VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 And so begins the life of a new weather station: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=ISAANICH3 Turned out to be easier to get going that I thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Down to 33 here, on the good side of my expectations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Down to 34 here now. Actually considerably colder than OLM Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Down to 33 here, on the good side of my expectations.My truck said 33F when I pulled into our lake house driveway 5pm, nice seeing these cold temps!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 00z GFSBegins in.... 17 minutes Big run tonight. I would love to see the trend continuing of 500mb heights being suppressed just a tad bit longer and 850mb temps a bit colder/spread further south. I would also really like to see the trend of the offshore low Wednesday moving further south. After day 6 we could see things turn even colder. Based on everything I've looked at over the past 3-4 runs/Ensembles here are my thoughts. 28% chance models turn colder41% chance models stick with similar solutions31% chance models turn less favorable/warmer Feel free to play along (You may need to refresh pages)Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197North America view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=npac&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197Alaska view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=ak&pkg=T850&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Down to 33 here, on the good side of my expectations. Yeah, 36 here and dropping. Hopefully gradients can stay light with the heaviest precip tomorrow morning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 00z GFS Begins in.... 17 minutes Big run tonight. I would love to see the trend continuing of 500mb heights being suppressed just a tad bit longer and 850mb temps a bit colder/spread further south. I would also really like to see the trend of the offshore low Wednesday moving further south. After day 6 we could see things turn even colder. Based on everything I've looked at over the past 3-4 runs/Ensembles here are my thoughts. 28% chance models turn colder 41% chance models stick with similar solutions 31% chance models turn less favorable/warmer Feel free to play along (You may need to refresh pages) Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197 North America view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197 North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=npac&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197 Alaska view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=ak&pkg=T850&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197Yup big run tonight. Let's go! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Capilano Lake and the Lions today. Temp was 38F. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 First dew point freeze at PDX!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 36F dp 32F at HIO. Pretty good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Capilano Lake and the Lions today. Temp was 38F.Wow, thats a beautiful view. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 First dew point freeze at PDX!!! Yeee Hawww!!! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 NAM sure is splitty with overrunner. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 I've had about 31" of rain since October 1st, so I probably beat you there Pretty insane alright. I ended up around 20. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 NAM sure is splitty with overrunner. The NAM should be burned and put out of its misery. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 The NAM should be burned and put out of its misery.Yeah what a waste of electricity. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 The clintons invented the nam model. P.O.S. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Quite the beautiful evening out there... snow is sparkling and road is compacted ice and snow that crunches under the tires. (went for a little drive down the road at half time to take in the wintry scene) Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 The NAM should be burned and put out of its misery.Careful, it may switch roles and be an emotional lifeline leading up to the next warning shot. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 The clintons invented the nam model. P.O.S. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 02z HRRR shows precip starting in about 4 hours for greater Puget Sound and continuing, more or less, through 20z Monday. Does it show everywhere in King County scoring? Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Careful, it may switch roles and be an emotional lifeline leading up to the next warning shot. The thing that drives me nuts is the operational NAM is almost always too cold, and the NAM MM5 over compensates and is usually too warm. Just a mess overall. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Does it show everywhere in King County scoring? Shows solid precip over King County 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 The thing that drives me nuts is the operational NAM is almost always too cold, and the NAM MM5 over compensates and is usually too warm. Just a mess overall.It's a horrible model. About the only use is tracking windstorms. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 02z HRRR shows precip starting in about 4 hours for greater Puget Sound and continuing, more or less, through 20z Monday. 00Z GFS still does not have the precip here by 4 a.m. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120500/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_2.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Looks decent 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Looks decent Holy crap! It shows me in the sweet spot. That would be pretty rare...at least by 21st century standards. This place is odd. It almost always snows at least some when snow in the forecast, but we are rarely one of the big winners. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 5, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Today locally, we broke the record coldest temp at 500mb for this date. The old record was set in 1948. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Hour 66, the 0z is a little south and 3mb weaker with the approaching low. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Hour 66, the 0z is a little south and 3mb weaker with the approaching low.We need that third millibar. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 We need that third millibar.I would think finding a sweet spot for Thursday's system where it is strong enough to give us decent precip but too weak to cause much in the way of warm advection (at least initially) would be optimal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 The updated run of the 00z NAM shows the over-running event starting sometime around Wednesday 7pm for the Southern Willamette Valley as moisture arrives. It looks like most of the Willamette Valley and parts of SW Washington should be seeing all snow at 10pm. It's still all snow for PDX Metro at Thursday 4am but the changeover to ice or rain looks like it's happening in the Central Valley. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016120500/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_49.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016120500/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_50.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016120500/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_52.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 At hour 81, it's 7mb weaker and still further south. Euro definitely led the way with this. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 I would think finding a sweet spot for Thursday's system where it is strong enough to give us decent precip but too weak to cause much in the way of warm advection (at least initially) would be optimal. Indeed. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 I would think finding a sweet spot for Thursday's system where it is strong enough to give us decent precip but too weak to cause much in the way of warm advection (at least initially) would be optimal.It'd be nice. The current trends are certainly encouraging. Dry or white, por favor. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Today locally, we broke the record coldest temp at 500mb for this date. The old record was set in 1948. That's a weird record to break. Interesting. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Looks windy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 At hour 81, it's 7mb weaker and still further south. Euro definitely led the way with this. I'm rooting for a weaker low also. Less down sloping with a weaker low. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 It'd be nice. The current trends are certainly encouraging. Dry or white, por favor.Indeed. Any updated thoughts on tomorrow morning? I'm glad to be at 300'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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