December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[crf450ish]

Someone should cancel flights out of Sea-Tac.

http://whitecenterblog.com/2016/12/04/weather-weather-service-says-good-chance-of-snow-alaska-cancels-flights/

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Rod Hill is going for all just normal rain for Thursday.

 

That guy is a dummy. He probably hasn't looked at a weather model this year. He is more interested in his booze

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Dumping snow in port orchard.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

31 at home, 35 at 1000ft, 36 in Silverton at 250'

[luvssnow_spokane]

Well heading off to work but steady drizzle/rain here @ 550ft. #outperform

[Jbolin]

Well heading off to work but steady drizzle/rain here @ 550ft. #outperform

Why does your location suck so bad?

[Geos]

Big flakes flying here now.

[crf450ish]

Well heading off to work but steady drizzle/rain here @ 550ft. #outperform

Have you considered moving closer to or actually to Enumclaw? 

[Phil]

I've never seen the d11-15 ECMWF ensembles quite this bullish on cold before. Has sub -20 departures continuing in western Canada out to d15. Crazy..huge source of bitter air ready to be tapped and put to good use.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/EE65EF53-D566-492D-9BFB-2365F6EB97E7_zps6xu90ok0.jpg

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS
Begins NOW

Will we see another run anywhere close to 6z, 0z? One wouldn't think so, but the agreement was nearly uncanny through day 8-9, and with the Ensembles dramatic improvement along with the exceptional Composite Analogs it is certainly possible this run is very cold.

Feel free to play along (You may need to refresh pages)
Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197
North America view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197
North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=npac&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197
Alaska view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=ak&pkg=T850&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

[Deweydog]

Today's rain and the inevitable shift in the 12z long range is going to have this place in a bad place. Bring your play doh and legos to your favorite safe space.

[MossMan]

Fluctuating between all snow and slop depending on intensity. Off to work, perhaps it will be better there!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

200 ft elevation in port orchard.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Mixed here now.. veery light

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Ended up with a trace of snow here overnight, all non-paved surfaces are covered with slush. It turned out to be a bit too warm for anything more than that. Currently sitting at 33F with a 32F dewpoint. It's looking a bit better further north on the island/mainland so far, but temperatures are still pretty marginal. Much of what falls this morning will melt over the day so I'm hoping my call for a burst of snow when the outflow kicks in hits the mark. The forecasts are still promising for the East side of the island, but not great further south. I do like that the winds have maintained a northerly/easterly component this morning, perhaps the low is a little further south than originally forecast.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Almost 2 inches when i left my house.

[Phil]

I'm gonna max out my quota of likes pretty soon. I demand that restriction be removed during winter events.

[Monty808]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Might as well show you guys my little buddy. She was my wifes comfort pet during her cancer fight so i try my best to do what my wife did with her. Today is a Christmas sweater day!! Hahahaha

[MossMan]

Currently waiting at sea level for coffee...still splatters on windshield. All snowflakes leaving my driveway. Live minute to minute updates from yours truly!

[HighlandExperience]

Snowing heavy here so I'm sure it's snowing at snowiz place

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hrrr doesn't show snow getting going at my place until around 11 am.

[Sometimesdylan]

15 degrees outside. A stiff breeze anywhere from 5-30mph blowing with a northerly attitude In a lotta locations here.

 

Might get a couple inches of snow on Wednesday, but expect a mostly cloudless couple days leading up to it.

 

Life is good, coffee is good... Enjoy your day.

[TT-SEA]

Snowing heavy here so I'm sure it's snowing at snowiz place

 

You are in the Highlands right?

 

Dumping snow here as well... powdery and blowing in the wind which is different than yesterday.      Accumulating fast.

[Jesse]

Today's rain and the inevitable shift in the 12z long range is going to have this place in a bad place. Bring your play doh and legos to your favorite safe space.

Hope it works out for you. Widespread discontent is your time to thrive!

 

Meanwhile I will be taking a drive up toward Larch.

[Phil]

You are in the Highlands right?

 

Dumping snow here as well... powdery and blowing in the wind which is different than yesterday. Accumulating fast.

Mind taking a video or two? Need my fix.

[Timmy]

Thursday is looking good

[crf450ish]

I love snow in the Pacific Northwest. Nothing beats the late afternoon sight of lumbering furs shrouded in a flurry of snow while the sun is low enough to cast its purple glow on the sky.

YES! I have only been as far east as Minneapolis and south as Pueblo, CO....the PNW is bar none the most beautiful scenery in the lower 48. The Park Range in CO comes really close though. 

[Timmy]

Low is further south. More cold air areas north.

[HighlandExperience]

You are in the Highlands right?

 

Dumping snow here as well... powdery and blowing in the wind which is different than yesterday. Accumulating fast.

Yup. Just chatted with a friend in Maple Valley, snowing there as well. Looks like it's snowing in most of the eastern suburbs now.

[BLI snowman]

Thursday is looking good

 

Eh, GFS showing a very quick transition, it's back to looking like maybe ~1" of snow followed by some freezing rain in the east wind spots down here. 

[Deweydog]

Cold air damming spots look like they might do okay.

[Timmy]

Eh, GFS showing a very quick transition, it's back to looking like maybe ~1" of snow followed by some freezing rain in the east wind spots down here.

Yeah but it never warms up much after. 534 thickness line south of Portland Friday

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Kitsap 400ft elevation

[Deweydog]

Yeah but it never warms up much after. 534 thickness line south of Portland Friday

That's pretty irrelevant to the transition itself. Mid level warming continues to be modeled pretty aggressively.

[BLI snowman]

Yeah but it never warms up much after. 534 thickness line south of Portland Friday

 

SW winds still kick in pretty quickly by Thursday afternoon. Should definitely get to 45ish in the valleys. I'm just not liking the trend of bringing the low in closer to the coast, makes for pretty firm WAA. 

[Timmy]

12z is close to snow at my house again Friday evening

[Goducks09]

I should have known better to second-guess Mark Nelson...  Chilly rain in downtown PDX this AM.

[GHweatherChris]

Snowing good at the airport still, got a report from our neighbor that it is snowing good at home and just starting to stick.

[Timmy]

SW winds still kick in pretty quickly by Thursday afternoon. Should definitely get to 45ish in the valleys. I'm just not liking the trend of bringing the low in closer to the coast, makes for pretty firm WAA.

Got it. So we actually want that low to be weaker.