snow_wizard Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Hey man, if you have hate in your heart, let it out.... ya know? Thanks. I do feel better now. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 The WRF is really awful even for Seattle. Shows almost no snow at all. A blend of the GFS and Euro would probably be quite good. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 nwsnow, jesse, and andrew cried enough earlier that the Euro felt bad... onto 12z runs If that actually impacts the outcome, we're gonna ***** and moan as hard as we need to in order to get snow here. Believe me we will. For the sake of everyone's sanity here I really hope SEA-PDX can just get a solid 5-6+ inches somehow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Jim sure it's going South. Jesse sure it's going North. It's a reverse psychology off!Two men enter, one man wins. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Looking at the radar and temperature obs it would seem Ferndale is about to get hammered with some very heavy snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Jim sure it's going South. Jesse sure it's going North. It's a reverse psychology off! Two men enter, one man wins. It will go north. They always go north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Jim sure it's going South. Jesse sure it's going North. It's a reverse psychology off! Two men enter, one man wins. It'll probably just be a non event for everyone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bham_Guy Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Looking at the radar and temperature obs it would seem Ferndale is about to get hammered with some very heavy snow. Right now - Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 It'll probably just be a non event for everyone. Could be. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 It'll probably just be a non event for everyone. Or we will all just watch Eugene get 8-10 inches, flurries in PDX and nothing in SEA. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Looking at the radar and temperature obs it would seem Ferndale is about to get hammered with some very heavy snow.Based on radar they could easily pick up 6" tonight. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bham_Guy Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 All snow on the northwest side of Bellingham now. Looks like it's changing to snow in the Barkley area now as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Wet snow in Barkley. http://barkleyvillage.com/web-cameras/ Watch the snow here if you're a poor snowless peasant from Portland or Seattle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 I-5 is looking a little snowy just North of Bellingham. Much of Whatcom County may get 6" tonight. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 The 6z NAM is still playing with fire for early tomorrow morning in Victoria. It also looks better for snow along the east side of the island and snowy from Bellingham north on the mainland. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016121206/nam4km_ref_frzn_nwus_7.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Does anybody know why the WRF has been doing so poorly with the recent set-up? It doesn't even show any precipitation for Northern Whatcom County during the next 24 hours, but it is obviously snowing up there currently. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Does anybody know why the WRF has been doing so poorly with the recent set-up? It doesn't even show any precipitation for Northern Whatcom County during the next 24 hours, but it is obviously snowing up there currently. 12-12-16Rain.jpg WRF has been bad enough recently that I've just been ignoring it. It has been a poor performer the last week or so down here in the PDX area as well. Not sure why it is struggling so much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Does anybody know why the WRF has been doing so poorly with the recent set-up? It doesn't even show any precipitation for Northern Whatcom County during the next 24 hours, but it is obviously snowing up there currently. 12-12-16Rain.jpgIt overestimated the strength of the outflow tonight. Like always. Had the general idea right with copious precip along the boundary, it just thought the boundary would be further South. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 The Fraser outflow is really kicking up now. Making nice progress. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Well, now it's really dumping on the Barkley Cam. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 To put Jesse's mind at ease a bit, 44/50 Euro Ensemble members take Thursday's low South of PDX. I definitely understand fearing the inevitable North shift, but that's pretty impressive. The 6z NAM is also South of the 00z NAM through hour 57. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 To put Jesse's mind at ease a bit, 44/50 Euro Ensemble members take Thursday's low South of PDX. I definitely understand fearing the inevitable North shift, but that's pretty impressive. The 6z NAM is also South of the 00z NAM through hour 57. It is interesting just how juicy the low on the NAM is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Haven't seen it snow this hard since February 2014. It's ABOUT TIME. Literally watched the snow line move south with TWO EYES. Drove north and south on the guide and watched the temp changes and found the snow/rain line around 10pm. It was moving south at about a mile per 20 minutes. Pretty fascinating to see. Finally changed to snow here about a half hour ago and now it's dumping. Cold air progressing south much quicker now. REALLY hoping Lake Whatcom can score tonight. Once they change over their totals should stack up pretty good. EDIT: WINTER WONDERLAND HERE. I also feel the pain most are feeling right now. It sucks. Honestly this morning I just assumed we'd get screwed up here and would run out of moisture. Didn't follow the models at all today. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 To put Jesse's mind at ease a bit, 44/50 Euro Ensemble members take Thursday's low South of PDX. I definitely understand fearing the inevitable North shift, but that's pretty impressive. The 6z NAM is also South of the 00z NAM through hour 57. Yup...we're done here. Time to just accept it. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 I think this storm is gonna verify as a bust for me. Downgraded to 2-6" for tonight and tomorrow and only a dusting so far, don't think i'll end up with more than 2". Getting shadowed hard again. Seems to me like there is no logic to when Missoula gets shadowed. The big hill is to southwest of us, we got westerly flow but no snow, even though this is supposed to be a pretty health shortwave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 06z NAM in agreement with euro on snow starting at PDX 4PM Wednesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Haven't seen it snow this hard since February 2014. It's ABOUT TIME. Literally watched the snow line move south with TWO EYES. Drove north and south on the guide and watched the temp changes and found the snow/rain line around 10pm. It was moving south at about a mile per 20 minutes. Pretty fascinating to see. Finally changed to snow here about a half hour ago and now it's dumping. Cold air progressing south much quicker now. REALLY hoping Lake Whatcom can score tonight. Once they change over their totals should stack up pretty good. EDIT: WINTER WONDERLAND HERE. I also feel the pain most are feeling right now. It sucks. Honestly this morning I just assumed we'd get screwed up here and would run out of moisture. Didn't follow the models at all today. Enjoying your event there through those Barkley web cams, beautiful over there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 The WRF really is handling the precip horribly. The stripe of heavy precip shown for king County hasn't / isn't happening. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Nice to see Bellingham finally getting some decent snow, which will hopefully stay on the ground quite awhile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bham_Guy Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Nice to see Bellingham finally getting some decent snow, which will hopefully stay on the ground quite awhile. Yeah, it's been awhile since we've had any snow before a Fraser outflow event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 I think this storm is gonna verify as a bust for me. Downgraded to 2-6" for tonight and tomorrow and only a dusting so far, don't think i'll end up with more than 2". Getting shadowed hard again. Seems to me like there is no logic to when Missoula gets shadowed. The big hill is to southwest of us, we got westerly flow but no snow, even though this is supposed to be a pretty health shortwave. I would give anything to be living where you are right now. Just remember what hell you could be going through. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Wow...went outside at 1215am and it was sleet/freezing rain (starting to accumulate) Got buried in my computer then looked outside at 1255am and everything is completely white and it is DUMPING!! Tried to get pics but my windows have water drops all over them and I'm not interested in going outside and getting zapped awake by the cold as I am on my way to bed. I will post pics in the morning. Hopefully this keeps up. I don't want to look at the radar.... 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 I would give anything to be living where you are right now. Just remember what hell you could be going through.Well yeah the lowlands are tough if you want snow when you look outside your window... But I'd gladly trade places with tim though, or even with just downtown or the town of North Bend(less snow but a more reasonable place to live). Frequent decent convergence zone snowfalls are almost guaranteed there in La Nina. If I could get a few days mostly WFH job it would be the most awesome place to live(seems like what tim is doing, he is posting pictures during work hours from around his house so i surmise he is not driving to Seattle that often). As a bonus its 30 minutes from the greatest ski hill in WA, Alpental. There are definitely a lot of aspects to consider when and if you get to choose where you live, and Missoula wouldn't make the shortlist if I had to live here long term, ie after grad school. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Wow...went outside at 1215am and it was sleet/freezing rain (starting to accumulate) Got buried in my computer then looked outside at 1255am and everything is completely white and it is DUMPING!! Tried to get pics but my windows have water drops all over them and I'm not interested in going outside and getting zapped awake by the cold as I am on my way to bed. I will post pics in the morning. Hopefully this keeps up. I don't want to look at the radar.... Looking forward to your pics! Take a measurement too we need to compare Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Well yeah the lowlands are tough if you want snow when you look outside your window... But I'd gladly trade places with tim though, or even with just downtown or the town of North Bend(less snow but a more reasonable place to live). Frequent decent convergence zone snowfalls are almost guaranteed there in La Nina. If I could get a few days mostly WFH job it would be the most awesome place to live(seems like what tim is doing, he is posting pictures during work hours from around his house so i surmise he is not driving to Seattle that often). As a bonus its 30 minutes from the greatest ski hill in WA, Alpental. There are definitely a lot of aspects to consider when and if you get to choose where you live, and Missoula wouldn't make the shortlist if I had to live here long term, ie after grad school. Good points. I really want to live in Central WA, but my wife wants a bigger city. There are so few places in WA that have a truly enjoyable climate near a major population center. There is Spokane, but it doesn't really float my boat. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mountainman Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 WOw SNowing tonight boys n girls!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mountainman Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 WHat are warning points btw? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Looks like maybe a hint of Fraser air here? Temperature dropped a degree in the last hour and very light breeze out of the ENE. Not expecting anything as I head to bed, but would be nice to be surprised with an inch. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 06z GFS also brings PDX snow by about 4-6 PM Wednesday, coming into agreement with Euro/NAM. Lets see where it sends the low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 06z GFS clearly south relative to 00z GFS with that low as of hour 72. Still looks like the low is much further north than on any other model, very brief snow for PDX. The low looks like it is going to go way north again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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