December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

The 12z WRF looked pretty decent for Sunday. Tomorrow looks to be a bit of a wildcard with some places possibly getting a little bit. Looks like it will easily get in the teens tonight for many places.

 

The ECMWF ensemble continues to look quite promising late in the month.

[snow_wizard]

21!

You might have a shot at 10 or so tonight.

[Front Ranger]

I don't think so. Better snow pack was needed and a more prominent cold/dry advection. 1-2 inches just isn't enough to provide enough artificial refrigerant and there wasn't much cold advection to follow. A lot had to go right to really make this a win from a snow-into-cold mitzvah.

 

I think that's enough to make a difference in many cases. I think your other reasons are more valid.

[Weather101]

I think that's enough to make a difference in many cases. I think your other reasons are more valid.

Eh 1-2 inches really isn't going to effect the temp a whole lot, to a certain degree it will.

[Brennan]

http://imgur.com/4JYhefl

 

http://imgur.com/OsRsqZ6

 

http://imgur.com/M7IMvDQ

 

http://imgur.com/XIZgjHf

 

http://imgur.com/1z1CKck

 

http://imgur.com/GuVLwlk

 

http://imgur.com/NklJl28

 

http://imgur.com/tM0j8Zw

 

Here goes nothing. Can't even upload a picture from my computer because the file size is too large. 

[Front Ranger]

BLI already down to low 20s after a high of 27 today. Running over -6 monthly departure after today.

 

This cold spell only adds to the recent unusual tendency for cold weather in late November/early December. Pretty amazing to have Dec 2009, Nov 2010, Dec 2013, and now Dec 2016 all within 7 years, when you compare to historical records.

[Front Ranger]

Eh 1-2 inches really isn't going to effect the temp a whole lot, to a certain degree it will.

 

From what I've seen, if it's covering most surfaces, it can definitely make a difference.

 

I see a fair amount of snow and clear nights.

[crf450ish]

http://imgur.com/4JYhefl

 

http://imgur.com/OsRsqZ6

 

http://imgur.com/M7IMvDQ

 

http://imgur.com/XIZgjHf

 

http://imgur.com/1z1CKck

 

http://imgur.com/GuVLwlk

 

http://imgur.com/NklJl28

 

http://imgur.com/tM0j8Zw

 

Here goes nothing. Can't even upload a picture from my computer because the file size is too large. 

This one is my favorite. Pretty surreal looking..

http://imgur.com/tM0j8Zw

[MossMan]

You might have a shot at 10 or so tonight.

My guess is 13... hard to get much below that without snowcover I've noticed. 20 now!

[TT-SEA]

http://imgur.com/4JYhefl

 

http://imgur.com/OsRsqZ6

 

http://imgur.com/M7IMvDQ

 

http://imgur.com/XIZgjHf

 

http://imgur.com/1z1CKck

 

http://imgur.com/GuVLwlk

 

http://imgur.com/NklJl28

 

http://imgur.com/tM0j8Zw

 

Here goes nothing. Can't even upload a picture from my computer because the file size is too large. 

 

 

Great pics!  

[crf450ish]

Took these two photos today on top of Miller Mountain above my house. Freezing fog has maintained its grip until this morning. Was 2 degrees when I took the pics. 

 

http://i.imgur.com/J9on0E5.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/8fhrwZh.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 at Pendleton

[Trainwreck]

You weenies should just move to central Oregon. I used to live in the Portland area then moved here an have gotten the winters I've wanted. The problem now is, precip, not temp. There is 17" of snow on the ground and looks to be here for awhile. Maybe nothing more til January but if it was here a lot, it wouldn't be as special. Temp now is 8.

[Front Ranger]

0z hi-res para NAM likes widespread light snow showers from Tacoma to Salem tomorrow afternoon.

 

[snow_wizard]

BLI already down to low 20s after a high of 27 today. Running over -6 monthly departure after today.

 

This cold spell only adds to the recent unusual tendency for cold weather in late November/early December. Pretty amazing to have Dec 2009, Nov 2010, Dec 2013, and now Dec 2016 all within 7 years, when you compare to historical records.

Now let's see if we can take this into uncharted waters (in recent times) and get cold late Dec and Jan.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 at Pendleton

-7 in cheesaw

[snow_wizard]

http://imgur.com/4JYhefl

 

http://imgur.com/OsRsqZ6

 

http://imgur.com/M7IMvDQ

 

http://imgur.com/XIZgjHf

 

http://imgur.com/1z1CKck

 

http://imgur.com/GuVLwlk

 

http://imgur.com/NklJl28

 

http://imgur.com/tM0j8Zw

 

Here goes nothing. Can't even upload a picture from my computer because the file size is too large.

It turns out your area has been the best for getting both snow and really cold temps.

[Jesse]

It was pretty clear precip wasn't just going to end and we'd switch to this brisk, well-mixed cold advection affection world. To do that we need an Arctic front, and it'll be 22 years this February since we've struck gold in that manner.

We all knew things would get juiced, but I think it's fair to say we all overestimated how quickly it would dejuice.

 

Regardless we need Jack LaLanne, stat!

[snow_wizard]

-7 in cheesaw

Nice. No question the coldest air mass is in WA this time.

[Winterdog]

23 here now but the satellite says high clouds will start moving in here within about 3 hours. Probably have a cloud modified low of 18 or 19. I hope this upcoming trip back to normal is as short as possible!

[HighlandExperience]

[Winterdog]

-7 in cheesaw

I've spent some time in Cheesaw. Almost bought some property on Maryanne creek near there but was too dumb and too young to take the chance. I imagine you have visited the ghost town set up there in town and the old school house. Good fishing in Beth and Beaver lakes. We still occasionally stay at Bonaparte lake in one of the cabins. We have been going there for over 40 years.

[TT-SEA]

The always overly-wet MM5 NAM shows nothing tomorrow for anyone.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Nice. No question the coldest air mass is in WA this time.

was -18 lastnight!!

[Jesse]

In Tigard this evening. Wow, they got a lot more snow than us and there is still plenty on the ground. Especially in the hills.

 

Starting to look like a swath of East Vancouver to Battle Ground was the heart of the screw zone. Even downtown Portland has more left on the ground tonight than our place!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I've spent some time in Cheesaw. Almost bought some property on Maryanne creek near there but was too dumb and too young to take the chance. I imagine you have visited the ghost town set up there in town and the old school house. Good fishing in Beth and Beaver lakes. We still occasionally stay at Bonaparte lake in one of the cabins. We have been going there for over 40 years.

 

I love it there, last summer I bought another 160 acres just 3 miles south of chesaw between lost lake and beth lake.

[Winterdog]

I like

0z hi-res para NAM likes widespread light snow showers from Tacoma to Salem tomorrow afternoon.

Good to see most of the action going on south of Snohomish county... we wouldn't want to get spoiled.

[FroYoBro]

In Tigard this evening. Wow, they got a lot more snow than us and there is still plenty on the ground. Especially in the hills.

 

Starting to look like a swath of East Vancouver to Battle Ground was the heart of the screw zone. Even downtown Portland has more left on the ground tonight than our place!

[MossMan]

23 here now but the satellite says high clouds will start moving in here within about 3 hours. Probably have a cloud modified low of 18 or 19. I hope this upcoming trip back to normal is as short as possible!

Noooo stupid clouds.

[Winterdog]

I love it there, last summer I bought another 160 acres just 3 miles south of chesaw between lost lake and beth lake.

Wonderful area. Moose have been seen around there and particularly in the swampy area between the highway and Bonaparte lake. I'll stop talking off subject now before I start getting flak.

[Front Ranger]

The always overly-wet MM5 NAM shows nothing tomorrow for anyone.

 

This is not a normal situation for the MM5, though.

[Heavy Snow]

Spent the day enjoying the sun and the snow. A little melting occurred but still have a solid snowpack. Looks like more snow will be on the way this weekend. I'm not expecting much but everybody should see flurries and a good chance of a dusting. Right now I'm looking at the last week of December and beyond as our next best chance to get an Arctic Blast and snow here to the PNW. I'm confident that this January wont be like Januaries of the recent past. We should get atleast 1 big time Arctic Blast this January, maybe more when it is all said and done.

[Front Ranger]

Good to see most of the action going on south of Snohomish county... we wouldn't want to get spoiled.

 

It likes your area better for Sunday morning. 

 

[ShawniganLake]

Another chance for snow for the northern members on Tuesday if this verified.

[Winterdog]

It likes your area better for Sunday morning.

Short lived but better than nothing!

[TT-SEA]

This is not a normal situation for the MM5, though.

 

 

HRRR agrees... at least through 10 a.m.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2016121700/t1/1ref_t1sfc_f18.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE down to 21 already. Looks like some fog starting to form though

[Bryant]

14 degrees here.... single digits?

[Front Ranger]

HRRR agrees... at least through 10 a.m.

 

Yeah...that's earlier.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah...that's earlier.

 

 

Does not look like much upstream either.  

 

12Z ECMWF was very sparse as well.