December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Chewbacca Defense]

Just switched to full snow here in my neck of the woods, and it is accumulating on the street and grass.  The temp is at 33

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It seems the atmosphere has saturated and the temperature is stuck at 33F. That might be all this precipitation intensity can accomplish for cooling with this going into the daylight hours.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Precip has ended down this way. For awhile, a lot more down in Southern Oregon. 

[MossMan]

Starting to stick to the grass here at work now. Now heading to my other work at Warm Beach at 100ft so I'm expecting rain there...will update!

[TT-SEA]

The latest radar loop through tonight from the HRRR is straight up depressing for King County... precip is winding down now for good.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_ncep_jet:&runTime=2016122313&plotName=1ref_t1sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=37&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=36&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t1

[Weather101]

[ShawniganLake]

32 with light snow here. A light coating on everything.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Could be worse guys, snow level is about 3000' here right now. 

[TT-SEA]

Roads turning white in Bellingham...

 

http://barkleyvillage.com/web-cameras/

[TT-SEA]

One thing is for sure: Euro was off for snow amounts this morning, as expected. No way it was going to start at 4/10AM. As it is the folks up North getting snow right now is mainly due to heavy precip rates artificially driving the snow level down.

 

All eyes on this afternoon/evening for King County.

 

 

I think this might be the main event and its too far north.   That band was supposed to be squarely over us all afternoon and evening.   Its faster and farther north.   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The latest radar loop through tonight from the HRRR is straight up depressing for King County... precip is winding down now for good.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_ncep_jet:&runTime=2016122313&plotName=1ref_t1sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=37&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=36&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t1

Its wrong. I can look at the sat loop and see whats going to happen.. The 12z nam sim radar shows tons of precip coming.

[TT-SEA]

I could be wrong... but I think Bryant is getting heavy snow right now and could be the big winner here.

 

[TT-SEA]

Its wrong. I can look at the sat loop and see whats going to happen.. The 12z nam sim radar shows tons of precip coming.

 

 

Hope its right.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hope its right.  

It looks the the low center is still in central Oregon. Then a trough extends north from the parent low.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Just drove to the store, and for those familiar with Bellingham, it is accumulating quickly up to Hwy 542 (Mt Baker Hwy)

 

Immediately to the north it is snowing but nothing is sticking

 

This is at the entrance of my neighborhood, and about 40 minutes after it finally started sticking.

[luminen]

Raining here. I'm pretty sure I'd be lucky to see even wet flakes falling today, let alone sticking snow.

[MossMan]

Just stopped at the lake house here at Lake Goodwin, 32 and moderate snow with it sticking to cars and grass so far.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

32 with light snow here. A light coating on everything.

 

Nice, it looks like there's a pretty solid covering on the malahat as well, but not much elsewhere. It's going about as expected here, just a tad too warm to amount to anything but there are flakes in the air.

[ShawniganLake]

Hope its right.

Mm5-nam looks pretty wet for you this afternoon.

[TT-SEA]

New WRF coming out... precip is to the north later this afternoon with nothing to the south or west to swing through.

[Deweydog]

New WRF coming out... precip is to the north later this afternoon with nothing to the south or west to swing through.

When does your judgmental family arrive?

[TT-SEA]

When does your judgmental family arrive?

 

 

They are enjoying the snow in Bellingham right now.  

 

Coming down here tomorrow.     Maybe we should go up there instead! 

[MossMan]

Getting gas at the Lake Goodwin store...huge flakes coming down...so wonderful! I don't want to drive to Warm Beach now since I'm sure it's raining there.

[BLI snowman]

Models consistently did a horrible job with this storm, all the way up to the end. Quite impressive.

[ShawniganLake]

Back to mostly rain here. That was anticlimactic.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

New WRF coming out... precip is to the north later this afternoon with nothing to the south or west to swing through.

Boy oh boy does the operational 12z gfs disagree.

[TT-SEA]

Boy oh boy does the operational 12z gfs disagree.

 

 

Might not really need the awful models now... you can see what is happening.   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Might not really need the awful models now... you can see what is happening.   

It shows a low developing over us later.

[Farmboy]

Snowmizer is right, no need to fret guys, more precip is on the way..

[MossMan]

Wow snowing here at Warm Beach as well just above sea level! Not sticking but was not expecting that!

[TT-SEA]

12Z WRF total snow through tomorrow morning.    A complete change for the Seattle area and eastward from its 00Z run..

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sunday looks nice

[Jesse]

Looks like the Gorge and Basin snow cover is getting a freshening this morning.

[Farmboy]

Seattle NWS just released a WWA for puget sound area

 

... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 AM PST SATURDAY... * TIMING... THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. * SNOW LEVEL... FALLING TO NEAR 500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON... THEN 200 FEET THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ON HILLS AND OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SNOW LEVEL DROPS. * MAIN IMPACT... UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED... ESPECIALLY ABOVE 200 FEET ELEVATION. LOCATIONS NEAR SEA LEVEL... SUCH AS NEAR THE SHORES OF PUGET SOUND... WILL GET LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. * OTHER IMPACTS... TRAVEL ON SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL BE CHALLENGING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES... AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. &&

 

No, they didn't just jinx it....

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Son just called said it is 32 and snowing. trees are white again.

[Farmboy]

The WRF is wrong.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the Gorge and Basin snow cover is getting a freshening this morning.

Great news!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12Z WRF total snow through tomorrow morning.    A complete change for the Seattle area and eastward from its 00Z run..

 

 

But here is precip. Its not picking up on any wet bulb cooling.

[TT-SEA]

The WRF is wrong.

 

Be nice to have the coastal radar functional today.

 

IR satellite shows the main moisture band moving NE through the area now with nothing much upstream.   Stuff offshore is moving SE towards central OR coast.   

 

https://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_common+12

[Jesse]

Great news!

 

Far Eastern Oregon (Baker City, Ontario) never really moderated the last few days either. Continuous cold for them. Wow.