December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Timmy Supercell]

Snow advisory out for all of Puget Sound now.

 

Now time to cancel the advisory for all of Oregon counties under one LOL

 

Are even the warning areas at least getting decent pack today? Or not?

[TT-SEA]

I already gave you a reason to not trust the HRRR past 3-4 hours out, and you ignored it so I can't help you there.

 

I think we both know the 00z ECMWF was not going to verify with snow starting at 4AM, regardless of what this afternoon/evening does. That was pretty D**n obvious.

 

Stop grasping at straws because you are worried that there won't be snow on the ground when your family comes. It's one thing to report what the WRF/HRRR is showing, it's another to make multiple posts (what is it, eight now this morning?) about how the event is "over for King County". You may end up right but it's way too early to tell.

 

 

I said the models showed this event is over for King County in terms of accumulating snow.   I don't know what will actually happen but I am much less optimistic based on the satellite and radar than I was when I went to bed.

[BLI snowman]

It's not looking good for accumulating snow across King County or anywhere south of maybe Arlington, not much at this time that suggests otherwise. This is a borderline, precip rate driven event that has tracked significantly NW of where the earlier model guidance had it.

[Deweydog]

42 here but it feels like it could be colder at other locations.

[MossMan]

Trying to stick to paved surfaces now here at sea level, getting the equipment ready here at my second job for snow removal. I would say this is majorly overperforming here at sea level!

[TT-SEA]

It's not looking good for accumulating snow across King County or anywhere south of maybe Arlington, not much at this time that suggests otherwise. This is a borderline, precip rate driven event that has tracked significantly NW of where the earlier model guidance had it.

 

 

Don't be realistic!   No room for that kind of crap here.   Nothing has changed... its all good.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Just took a drive up to about 750ft here this morning for a possible splat and even a visual snowflake. Nada... At this point just not cold enough. My drive temp fluctuated between 37 and 35 degrees. No splats, no snow. I sure hope some people in the puget sound that missed out before see some today.  Happy for them!!  Sadly, it is not looking good at this point.

[Timmy]

Don't panic, at least the 12z gfs was a real winner...

[Deweydog]

F*cking Arctic Oscillation...

[luvssnow_spokane]

Don't panic, at least the 12z gfs was a real winner...

[BLI snowman]

Don't be realistic!   No room for that kind of crap here.   Nothing has changed... its all good.

 

Maybe the Euro will shift it back south 200 miles.

[seattleweatherguy]

I'm at 36 cold rain?

[HighlandExperience]

Snowing in Lynwood.

[Winterdog]

Just took a drive up to about 750ft here this morning for a possible splat and even a visual snowflake. Nada... At this point just not cold enough. My drive temp fluctuated between 37 and 35 degrees. No splats, no snow. I sure hope some people in the puget sound that missed out before see some today.  Happy for them!!  Sadly, it is not looking good at this point.

Cheer up, it may not be snowing there now but the models look like !

[Deweydog]

I'm at 36 cold rain?

Did you look outside?

[Weather101]

I'm at 36 cold rain?

Maybe?

[seattleweatherguy]

Did you look outside?

Looks more like a mix

[luvssnow_spokane]

Cheer up, it may not be snowing there now but the models look like s**t!

Thanks Jake... I Appreciate your encouragement.    I hope you get snow today. In fact I wish everyone could.

[Geos]

Snowing in north Kirkland now. 33°

[Brennan]

Dumping all over whatcom county. Havent been this surprised by snow in 20 years...  No seriously... January 1996 was the last time I was surprised by snow. 

[HighlandExperience]

Reports of chunky rain down close to sea level in North Seattle. 

[Geos]

Flakes are really growing in size now. 33.3°

[seattleweatherguy]

Snowing here

[MossMan]

Reports on Twitter of snow in Bellingham, Shoreline, Marysville, Mount Vernon, Oak Harbor, Lynnwood, Edmonds, and Bothell.

 

Rain/snow mix in neighborhoods with elevation in Seattle, like Wallingford.

 

Regardless of King County (really just Tim's house), definitely nice to see overperforming in certain areas.

Most definitely over performing this morning up here!! Love it!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Snowing in port orchard. I just noticed more precip coming in from the sw. WTF!!!!

[Farmboy]

Snow started mixing in here in Fairwood area of Renton @ about 400 feet, lots of chunky rain with a few flakes here and there. 37 degrees.

[pscz1140]

Just changed to snow here. Nice, fat flakes

[HighlandExperience]

Just changed to snow here. Nice, fat flakes

 

You on capitol hill?

[pscz1140]

You on capitol hill?

Yeah, near the top.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like we are kind of back to square one now with the ensembles. 

[Weather101]

Sometimes I feel like this forum needs this

[MossMan]

Looks like we are kind of back to square one now with the ensembles.

Be interesting how the Euro ensembles turn out.

[TT-SEA]

Coastal radar back up... nothing much to see there.

 

Not much coming from the SW... and the stuff offshore is moving to the SE obviously in NW flow behind departing low.

[Geos]

32.6° now. 

 

About 5 minutes ago.

 

[MossMan]

Heavy snow now here at sea level!

[Jesse]

PDX up to 43.

 

What happened to our 36 hours of 36 degree rain? I was sort of looking forward to that.

[Farmboy]

Coastal radar back up... nothing much to see there.

 

Not much coming from the SW... and the stuff offshore is moving to the SE obviously in NW flow behind departing low.

Doesn't matter, the remaining moisture isn't slated to move in until later this afternoon/evening....

[HighlandExperience]

heavy cold rain in issaquah. 

[Randyc321]

Snowing in port orchard. I just noticed more precip coming in from the sw. WTF!!!!

 

 

Also check the 8km water vapor loop.

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nw/h5-loop-wv.html

 

 Lots of moisture popping up out there on the right track for this afternoon.

[FroYoBro]

PDX up to 43.

 

What happened to our 36 hours of 36 degree rain? I was sort of looking forward to that.

 

This was a classic representation of models bringing lows in too far south compared to reality. Pretty crazy shift in just 48 hours.