January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Getting reports of snow in Tacoma.

[MossMan]

The bleeding has stopped...we have refroze at my house! Have about a half inch left on the ground.

[Jesse]

Honesty i feel there will be many changes to the forecast this week for the weekend period. Cerious to see if there are any more wild swings tonight on the 00z.

A continuation of the present cooling trend would be nice.

[Jesse]

Wow. Who put together the new 7-day? That is one bullish forecast.

[FroYoBro]

Wow. Who put together the new 7-day? That is one bullish forecast.

 

Mark did.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark said he'll blog about it later. He is buying what the EURO is selling...

[luminen]

Hard to believe the high temp in Barrow, AK today was 36F and they're only sitting at 32F now. Meanwhile it's 10F in Anchorage and 4F in Fairbanks. 

[Jesse]

Mark did.

Warm biased mofo...

[Perturbed Member]

FYI Mark Nelson saying next weekend looks a lot like the January 2004 event.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My Pryenees LOVES the snow

 

[Kayla]

Wow. Who put together the new 7-day? That is one bullish forecast.

 

What's so bullish about it?? Looks very Euro'ish, little warmer actually.

[Jesse]

What's so bullish about it??

Looks colder than I would expect. Especially given the recent model madness.

[Goducks09]

FYI Mark Nelson saying next weekend looks a lot like the January 2004 event.

 

We had snow on the ground with the arctic front that year tho...  

[umadbro]

Right now, Mark is the only met that has been good to great this year. NWS is a steaming pile of transplants.

[Deweydog]

FYI Mark Nelson saying next weekend looks a lot like the January 2004 event.

Funny, I was thinking earlier today how with the SW flow and lows staying offshore it might be hard to scour out the lowest levels for quite awhile. Yuck.

[Jesse]

Right now, Mark is the only met that has been good to great this year. NWS is a steaming pile of transplants.

U mad bro?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Funny, I was thinking earlier today how with the SW flow and lows staying offshore it might be hard to scour out the lowest levels for quite awhile. Yuck.

 

I remember several 32/29, 33/31/34/32 type days after the main show in the Central Valley, full of the sounds of limbs snapping all night...

 

I will never forget seeing heavy snow transition to heavy rain in about 15 minutes with the temp hanging tough at 19 degrees. 

[MossMan]

U mad bro?

I just now caught that...good god I am lacking sleep.

[Jesse]

16 at PDX is pretty hard for me to wrap my head and/or pipes around at this point. This feels like a low 20s at best event.

[Jesse]

I just now caught that...good god I am lacking sleep.

I was making sure it was really him.

[Deweydog]

16 at PDX is pretty hard for me to wrap my head and/or pipes around at this point. This feels like a low 20s at best event.

At this point he's saying 16 with the wind and without precip.

[Jesse]

At this point he's saying 16 with the wind and without precip.

Balls of steel.

[Deweydog]

Balls of steel.

Balls of WRONG.

[Perturbed Member]

Funny, I was thinking earlier today how with the SW flow and lows staying offshore it might be hard to scour out the lowest levels for quite awhile. Yuck.

 

Yep, I think we are destined for some ZR with this sooner or later. 

[Jesse]

Balls of WRONG.

Matt vs Mark smackdown. This should be pay per view only.

[Deweydog]

Yep, I think we are destined for some ZR with this sooner or later.

Pretty easy call. The only way we avoid that is with overrunning from the northwest. Doesn't look likely.

[Deweydog]

Matt vs Mark smackdown. This should be pay per view only.

We'll hurl Hadley Cells at each other to the death at the Stampede Pass city hall.

[FroYoBro]

Gradients have turned to offshore. Bring on the cold temperatures. 

[Perturbed Member]

 

Looking snowy at I5 on Woodburn under that narrow but intense band. 

[Kayla]

Balls of WRONG.

 

Game on!

 

I forecasted a low of 14 (not happening now!) in the contest before the "model collapse of 2016" but I think they still have a shot of getting down to as low as 16-17 with some decoupling help possibly on Wednesday/Thursday.

[Perturbed Member]

Pretty easy call. The only way we avoid that is with overrunning from the northwest. Doesn't look likely.

 

Yeah I think all models agree with the south stream taking control by the end of the week, I think the debate over north vs south is maybe over for that time period. I'm pretty curious to see if there will be anymore wild swings on the 00z suite though. 

[Perturbed Member]

How cold were the 850mb temps over PDX and SEA for the Jan. 2004 event? That was a colder airmass if I remember correctly.

[Deweydog]

How cold were the 850mb temps over PDX and SEA for the Jan. 2004 event? That was a colder airmass if I remember correctly.

About -10c. But that event was absolute gold from a low level perspective. The basin was an absolute ice box.

[Deweydog]

Looks like The Dalles may dip below freezing before too long...

[HighlandExperience]

Reports of light snow in south king county

[ShawniganLake]

It was sort of obvious that the models had backed off on the depth and speed of the cold air. Just have to accept it and not let yourself believe it will work out differently. Its been the same thing with each cold air intrusion this year so that was good indication that it would happen again.

I always like to look at surface obs upstream from Hope BC in the hours leading up to the forecast movement of an arctic front. It was pretty apparent last night that there was going to be no discernible temperature drop with the front, not what most people would consider to be a true Arctic front. It was still only 32F at lillooet BC at 4am, well after the winds had shifted northerly. If it was in the lower teens in places like Lytton or Lillooet things would have felt much different today.

[FroYoBro]

Looks like The Dalles may dip below freezing before too long...

 

Pendleton is all the way down to 30. 

[TT-SEA]

Reports of light snow in south king county

 

Is there a 'Panic Its Snowing in Seattle' Twitter feed?   Where do see all these "reports"?

[FroYoBro]

Is there a 'Panic Its Snowing in Seattle' Twitter feed?   Where do see all these "reports"?

 

Same place as the "Panic Because the Snow is Melting" blog. 

[TT-SEA]

Same place as the "Panic Because the Snow is Melting" blog. 

 

 

I hate snow melting before a cold period.   Almost as much as low cloud days in the summer!