January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Timmy]

Mark Nelsen just released a MUCH WARMER 7day

warm bias

[Deweydog]

warm bias

 

Eastward bias.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Pretty normal to get a few days of warming before colding in some of our best winter blocking years. all the models hint at this.

[Gradient Keeper]

As soon as models showed the scenario with the trough suddenly stalling over us the writing was on the wall. As agreement for this grew more consistent the past 6-8 runs has slowly edged the trough further north sitting over Oregon. It's a no-brainer after that point that things would become less favorable for progress of arctic air. PDX probably looking at 1-2" snow, then a big ice storm mainly east of I-205.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Pretty normal to get a few days of warming before colding in some of our best winter blocking years. all the models hint at this.

... AND incredibly rare.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

... AND incredibly rare.

Not really..

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still a few ensemble members down around -15C next week for PDX, interesting.

[FroYoBro]

Finally down to 32. The winds have been fairly strong, but the air coming through the Gorge certainly isn't very cold at the moment. 

[Heavy Snow]

It's been one heck of a ride PDX Metro but I knew this time would eventually come. From February 2014 when those 3 lows magically tracked where we wanted and got 3 separate snowstorms, to the January 2016 event where we somehow got snow/ice in that fake cold setup when nobody else did, to this past December where we have had 2 snow/ice events, it was time for us to get the bad end of the stick. This is just a way of Mother Nature balancing itself out. I'm not upset about it because I've been extremely lucky the past few winters with how things have went. Sure it would have been good to finally get the January off our backs but maybe it still will because January just started. It is what it is. Still hopeful that we get a nice transition event this weekend.

[Deweydog]

So the next burning question is whether PDX can dip below 30 by midnight.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

So the next burning question is whether PDX can dip below 30 by midnight.

They will because its a arctic express.

[Brennan]

Moving forward, trolling and name calling will be dealt with a little more harsher.

 

Do not insult or bully others just because they got a forecast wrong, forecasted something you didn't like, or made comments you didn't enjoy. If someone is being rude and you feel the need to respond to it, then be polite and tactful in your words, or just report it to a Mod or myself.

 

Hateful language at someone's gender, sexuality, religion, mental state, or family will result in a ban. I don't care if you limit it only to a private message, as none of that crap has a place on this forum. If you have a question as to why someone is a "met" or a "mod", then you can send me a PM. I have been very careful in who gets these tags.

 

I honestly don't care if someone has been a part of this community for ten days or ten years, but it gets old when the same actors do the same same crap year after year. For the first time in just over eight years, there are multiple opportunities for a significant regional event where we get a chance to forecast, fantasize and discuss with professionals on what might be falling from the skies, and I wont have a couple of manchildren ruin it for everyone.

 

Actually the pollution in China is negating all possibilities of a region wide event, didn't you hear? Weird going on. 

[seattleweatherguy]

Moving forward, trolling and name calling will be dealt with a little more harsher.

 

Do not insult or bully others just because they got a forecast wrong, forecasted something you didn't like, or made comments you didn't enjoy. If someone is being rude and you feel the need to respond to it, then be polite and tactful in your words, or just report it to a Mod or myself.

 

Hateful language at someone's gender, sexuality, religion, mental state, or family will result in a ban. I don't care if you limit it only to a private message, as none of that crap has a place on this forum. If you have a question as to why someone is a "met" or a "mod", then you can send me a PM. I have been very careful in who gets these tags.

 

I honestly don't care if someone has been a part of this community for ten days or ten years, but it gets old when the same actors do the same same crap year after year. For the first time in just over eight years, there are multiple opportunities for a significant regional event where we get a chance to forecast, fantasize and discuss with professionals on what might be falling from the skies, and I wont have a couple of manchildren ruin it for everyone.

Thanks Fred. I come here for good discussion, better forecast than tv and news. We got an amazing fourum.

[TT-SEA]

Sunset on a cold evening...

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Bellingham just went full tilt arctic. 29 degrees.

[Kayla]

Way too dry and not nearly enough forcing.  Froyobro will have some flurries.  

 

You have to admit, it is eerily similar to Feb 2014...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Sunset on a cold evening...

 

Tim you show that same pic every year from 2008. Jeez man..

[TT-SEA]

Tim you show that same pic every year from 2008. Jeez man..

 

 

I know... I should take a new one.  

[crf450ish]

Check out this video about Bend, OR

 

 

https://youtu.be/TGpxdKRsUJk

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I just seen a pan handler on a corner saying they were broke and homeless yet she was talking on a smart phone and had nice clean clothing on. Something just looked fishy.

[Deweydog]

You have to admit, it is eerily similar to Feb 2014...

Yes and no...

[Brennan]

You have to admit, it is eerily similar to Feb 2014...

 

It's nothing like Feb 2014. Bellingham had a foot of snow in 10 hours with that. 

[Gradient Keeper]

You have to admit, it is eerily similar to Feb 2014...

I see quite a few similarities. PDX will scour out much slower than modeled(Like nearly every other time) and the snow covered Gorge and Columbia Basin is going to lend a hand in that.

[TT-SEA]

Yes and no...

 

 

Seahawks as Super Bowl champs!  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yes and no...

 

I feel like the initial arctic air blasted in a lot stronger in February 2014. 

[Perturbed Member]

I see quite a few similarities. PDX will scour out much slower than modeled(Like nearly every other time) and the snow covered Gorge and Columbia Basin is going to lend a hand in that.

 

Just a shame that most of the precip will be ZR instead of snow. Waste of a decent airmass. 

[Kayla]

It's nothing like Feb 2014. Bellingham had a foot of snow in 10 hours with that. 

 

On Feb 6th??

[Brennan]

Check out this video about Bend, OR

 

 

https://youtu.be/TGpxdKRsUJk

 

So jealous. Want that in Western Washington, BAD. Reminds me of a few events. December 13th 2008, November 26th 2006... January 2nd 2004. In Bellingham at least. 

[Deweydog]

It's nothing like Feb 2014. Bellingham had a foot of snow in 10 hours with that.

You're thinking of a different event.

[Front Ranger]

Bellingham just went full tilt arctic. 29 degrees.

 

SEA down to 32. High of 34 - BELOW guidance from two days ago or whenever that TimJim fisticuff was.

[Kayla]

I see quite a few similarities. PDX will scour out much slower than modeled(Like nearly every other time) and the snow covered Gorge and Columbia Basin is going to lend a hand in that.

 

I'm not talking about this weekend. I'm talking about this Wednesday. The models two days before showed a very similar setup in 2014 as we saw with the 12z models this morning. 00z models then began to shift things north and the trend continued the following day.

[Perturbed Member]

I'm not talking about this weekend. I'm talking about this Wednesday. The models two days before showed a very similar setup in 2014 as we saw with the 12z models this morning. 00z models then began to shift things north and the trend continued the following day.

 

I do remember the models trending further and further north with those lows. Hopefully the Wednesday one can start doing that soon but it seems we are going in the opposite direction on the models right now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just a shame that most of the precip will be ZR instead of snow. Waste of a decent airmass. 

 

Quite a ways to go. 

[TT-SEA]

SEA down to 32. High of 34 - BELOW guidance from two days ago or whenever that TimJim fisticuff was.

 

 

I actually said 33 or 34 was the best bet but GFS MOS showed 35.    

[TT-SEA]

I do remember the models trending further and further north with those lows. Hopefully the Wednesday one can start doing that soon but it seems we are going in the opposite direction on the models right now. 

 

 

I was thinking the same thing... there could be a sudden shift way north tonight.  

[Kayla]

I do remember the models trending further and further north with those lows. Hopefully the Wednesday one can start doing that soon but it seems we are going in the opposite direction on the models right now. 

 

It's a complicated pattern. Plenty of time for things to change.

[Deweydog]

I feel like the initial arctic air blasted in a lot stronger in February 2014.

It was a little colder going in, but there are other differences too. Mainly the fact the moisture appears to be primarily wrap around. The downslope will be a killer if anything makes it toward PDX.

[Perturbed Member]

Quite a ways to go. 

 

Yeah we do have time, but it looks like its going to be hard to avoid a low that is gonna bomb and head north one way or another. 

 

Then again it is always amazing how the smallest short term changes on the models snowball into huge changes further down in the forecast. 

[ShawniganLake]

It's nothing like Feb 2014. Bellingham had a foot of snow in 10 hours with that.

There was a cold and dry event in early February that year. The late February one was all Arlington and to the north. That is what you're thinking of.

[Front Ranger]

I actually said 33 or 34 was the best bet but GFS MOS showed 35.    

 

Didn't GFS MOS also show an afternoon high of 37 or 38 for yesterday? They only topped out at 35. Warm bias!