January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensembles weren't great. I fear we may be nearing our annual mid-winter lull...which often means, show's over guys...

[Front Ranger]

You should have been more steadfast in warning them earlier on. It's irresponsible to leave your expertise and acumen on the sidelines at a time like this.

 

Eh, people listen more to you. It's 100% your fault, dog.

[TT-SEA]

Eugene has had 2 devastating regional zr events in the last 3 years.  One in Feb 2014, and one a couple of weeks ago.  You live well above North Bend proper.  I'm guessing that the town experiences them far more than you do at your elevated location.

 

Not really... I can't remember a single event with bad icing in town and snow up here.   Or rain up here and icing in town.   I don't remember NB having freezing rain at any time other than when it happened here.  

[Deweydog]

Eh, people listen more to you. It's 100% your fault, dog.

Jesse thinks it makes me sub-human. So I dialed it down a bit.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Ensembles weren't great. I fear we may be nearing our annual mid-winter lull...which often means, show's over guys...

super. Thanks!

[Kayla]

I can't see any moisture getting north of Albany at this point and even that looks like a huge stretch...

 

Euro definitely trended further north once again. If only we had a little more time!

[BLI snowman]

I can't see any moisture getting north of Albany at this point and even that looks like a huge stretch...

Euro shows widespread flurries.

 

I'm hoping for some sun tomorrow, personally.

[Deweydog]

Euro shows widespread flurries.

 

I'm hoping for some sun tomorrow, personally.

Could have both!

[Front Ranger]

Jesse thinks it makes me sub-human. So I dialed it down a bit.

 

That's surprising.

 

From what I've heard, Jesse finds every single member here an absolute delight. I can't imagine he'd ever want anyone to dial it down.

[BLI snowman]

Could have both!

I foresee a nice virga dump period in the late morning. Lots of squints through blinds.

 

Probably a nice-ish afternoon and evening.

[Timmy Supercell]

So.. apparently my measurements were in the low end in Klamath Falls this evening. There are reports of 12-13" around OIT and elsewhere in town. And that was as of 8pm, an hour before my shots. 

[Jesse]

That's surprising.

 

From what I've heard, Jesse finds every single member here an absolute delight. I can't imagine he'd ever want anyone to dial it down.

I've been nothing but trouble lately.

[Front Ranger]

I've been nothing but trouble lately.

 

 

Just teasing ya. You've certainly dialed things down. 

[Dave]

2014 wasn't that bad to be honest. I didn't knowtice any "deveastation". 

Tree damage was incredible, although the power outages weren't nearly as bad for some reason.  It was particularly bad just north and west of town.  "Devastating" has a nice ring to it though, but probably a bit of exaggeration 

[TT-SEA]

925mb temps on the 00Z ECMWF are well above zero for most places on Saturday morning... well before any precip starts.

 

[Deweydog]

925mb temps on the 00Z ECMWF are well above zero for most places on Saturday morning... well before any precip starts.

 

To be expected considering the Europeans don't understand the power of southern Oregon snow cover on winds aloft.

[Perturbed Member]

00z ECMWF

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017010400/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_5.png

[Front Ranger]

925mb temps on the 00Z ECMWF are well above zero for most places on Saturday morning... well before any precip starts.

 

 

However, Euro has 850s easily cooler than GFS at 96 hours. Still below 0 for western WA.

[Front Ranger]

Euro has the offshore low much weaker and further offshore than GFS at day 5. Will be interesting to see how this affects next week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

According to radar it should start snowing here any minute...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The difference between hour 144 and hour 168 on the 00z EURO is pretty intense.

[Front Ranger]

The difference between hour 144 and hour 168 on the 00z EURO is pretty intense.

 

Some insanely cold air in BC.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5-6" of snow so far in Medford. Wow.

[Timmy Supercell]

5-6" of snow so far in Medford. Wow.

 

NWS has an official M5.3" on their page.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Bellingham getting windy again. 47mph.

[Jesse]

Already down to 17 here with perfectly clear night skies and a snow covered landscape.

 

Some people complain about snow amounts, or the lack of "true" cold air, or how bad the models busted, or that you hate how our climate doesn't reflect the arctic tundra. In my opinion, this type of weather beats 50 degree rain any day of the week and I think sometimes we lose sight of that while instead we are thinking about 'what could have been'.

 

Just a friendly reminder to not always look 4/6/8+ days out for the next snow event. You end up getting caught up in the frenzy and forget how nice we have it right now.

Very good sentiment. I was thinking about that today while driving around in the cold sunshine looking at the snowy mountains surrounding us.

[Dave]

5-6" of snow so far in Medford. Wow.

Seems like it is snowy everywhere from Cottage Grove on south.  Yet for some reason the moisture has stalled moving northward according to the Medford radar.  Quite infuriating.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

High wind advisory issued for east winds in my location.

[Deweydog]

The Euro looks confused again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seems like it is snowy everywhere from Cottage Grove on south.  Yet for some reason the moisture has stalled moving northward according to the Medford radar.  Quite infuriating.  

 

Probably the line of dewpoints in the teens...

[Front Ranger]

The Euro looks confused again.

 

The progression from day 7 to 8 is a little strange.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO shows a massive snowstorm For Olympia/Tacoma on Wednesday, next week...

 

In other news looking at the Medford cams is incredible, they are getting HAMMERED. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
916 PM PST Tue Jan 3 2017

.DISCUSSION...The forecast has been updated again. This is a major
winter storm that many will surely remember for a long, long
time. Please see the winter storm warnings/advisories at WSWMFR
for the specifics. Snow reports of 3-5 inches have been common
across the Rogue Valley this evening and expect snow to continue
through at least the first part of the overnight (until around
midnight or shortly thereafter). Widespread totals of 4-8 inches
will be common on the lower valley floors before snow tapers off
overnight into Wednesday morning. Local amounts more than 10
inches are possible at elevations above 1500 feet. Power outages
are possible due to stressed tree limbs and power lines from the
heavy, wet nature of the snow.

Models show the snow tapering off west of the Cascades after 09z
as the surface low moves into northern California, but it will
continue east of the Cascades. Also, a cold upper low offshore
will move onshore Wednesday morning. This will re-energize
showers along the coast and may lower the snow level at times down
to sea level. Have therefore updated the winter weather advisory
north of Cape Blanco to include all areas down to the beaches and
above 500 feet south of Cape Blanco. Cold high pressure will build
into the area Wednesday night into Thursday and this will keep the
snow around for a while. With fresh snow cover, if we get clear
nights, temperatures could near or break record lows in some
locations. -Spilde 

[Timmy Supercell]

Now reports of 8-9" in Medford coming in on the NWS page.

 

http://i63.tinypic.com/vpwxaw.jpg

[Front Ranger]

Wow. Wonder when was the last time the Rogue Valley had a storm like this?

[Timmy Supercell]

Wow. Wonder when was the last time the Rogue Valley had a storm like this?

 

Even when I had a storm like this... good question. I'd guess 90's when K-Falls last had a foot in one day. Maybe January 1993.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Medford's all time daily snowfall record is 6.8" according to what I just looked up...They will be close today.

[Deweydog]

Wow. Wonder when was the last time the Rogue Valley had a storm like this?

1948-49.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow. Wonder when was the last time the Rogue Valley had a storm like this?

 

This is probably at least top 5-10 all-time. 

[Front Ranger]

Medford's all time daily snowfall record is 6.8" according to what I just looked up...They will be close today.

 

That's for the airport, I believe. Nov 1977.

 

However, looks like pre-airport Medford had single day storms of 11" in Dec 1919 and 8" in Feb 1917.