January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It's nice to see winter weather for Washington and Oregon. I believe that when winter is over everyone on this forum will have had a fair share of the pie.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It's an oddball pattern, that's for sure. Normally I would expect some phasing and energy to further undercut the block and drive the low to the north, possibly all the way up to the Alaskan panhandle. Instead the block collapses south and the low goes down with it; it could end up bad for everyone but not for the reasons we initially anticipated.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017010700/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_4.png

[Jesse]

A lot of rampant IMBY-isms for sure.

 

At least the intra-region angst is another nice indication that it's been a relevant winter for a change.

That's a very good point.

 

Keeping in mind the regional prowess of this winter so far has helped keep me from being too bitter about my relatively light amounts of snow with the December events (and none this month so far).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That's an unfair generalization. But there are certainly some on this forum who come off that way.

 

I know everything about Washington of course

[Jesse]

All I know is everyone who gets snow when I don't get any are poo poo heads.

I declar a regional war to settle this.

 

We need to somehow steal the Puget Sound's lemon tree.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm from seattle!

 

I know and you have such an affinity for those Seattle sports teams, but we both love the Mariners...But you definitely know Oregon, or at least the Newberg area and any river that contains a Salmon or Steelhead!

[Jesse]

I know everything about Washington of course

I know it like the back of my hand....actually, in all honestly, I have an outline of Washington state tattooed on my right shoulder.

[Deweydog]

I declar a regional war to settle this.

 

We need to somehow steal the Puget Sound's lemon tree.

I say we all meet up at the Centralia Dairy Queen and hash this out over blizzards.

[Brennan]

2016-2017 Snow Totals for BLI, SEA, and PDX as follows...

 

BLI: 5"

SEA: 3.5"

PDX: 2"

 

These are estimates that can't be more than 1" + or -... If winter is over after next week and all systems fail to produce significant snow for any of these locations, region wide it is a bust winter for snow, but an overachiever for cold. 

[BLI snowman]

That's a very good point.

 

Keeping in mind the regional prowess of this winter so far has helped keep me from being too bitter about my relatively light amounts of snow with the December events (and none this month so far).

 

We're now tracking ahead of 2008-09, 2009-10, and 2013-14 for cold winter honors of the century up to this point. That is certainly something.

 

I've had about 5" here so far, would say that is the most through this point since 2008-09. And there's still some snow piles in the Three Creeks Library parking lot!

[pscz1140]

People from Seattle might as well be from New York or Boston. They know absolutely nothing about Oregon. 

 

Every time I go to Bend I seem to be the only dude without a beard - not sure how they grow them so big down there.

 

In weather news it appears to be pretty darn cold outside my apartment right now. Need to borrow that swamp thermometer to get an exact reading, though.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The last 30 days has been the coldest average temp here i have had in the 19 years at this location.

[Deweydog]

Getting pretty windy out there in Troutdale.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2016-2017 Snow Totals for BLI, SEA, and PDX as follows...

 

BLI: 5"

SEA: 3.5"

PDX: 2"

 

These are estimates that can't be more than 1" + or -... If winter is over after next week and all systems fail to produce significant snow for any of these locations, region wide it is a bust winter for snow, but an overachiever for cold. 

 

3" for EUG and about 6" for SLE. Medford I think is at about 10.5" 

 

I'm with BLI snowman we are tracking well for best winter of the 21st Century... No telling where it goes from here, but it has started well and consistently. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

2016-2017 Snow Totals for BLI, SEA, and PDX as follows...

 

BLI: 5"

SEA: 3.5"

PDX: 2"

 

These are estimates that can't be more than 1" + or -... If winter is over after next week and all systems fail to produce significant snow for any of these locations, region wide it is a bust winter for snow, but an overachiever for cold. 

 

The RGEM briefly brings snow to all three tomorrow evening in this messy transition. I'm starting to think tomorrow evening could be an over-performer in places not too exposed to downsloping.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2017010700/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_9.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 at The Dalles, 2 at Hermiston... a lot of cold air to pull from...

[HighlandExperience]

The RGEM briefly brings snow to all three tomorrow evening in this messy transition. I'm starting to think tomorrow evening could be an over-performer in places not too exposed to downsloping.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2017010700/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_9.png

Seems pretty generous. Would love if that verified. Doesn't the GEM tend to overdo precip?

[BLI snowman]

12 at The Dalles, 2 at Hermiston... a lot of cold air to pull from...

 

0 at Pendleton, which is as cold as they have been.

 

Very nice low level airmass, should keep us frozen well into Sunday at the very least.

[pscz1140]

The NAM 12km is looking really good for weekend snow from Northern OR to just south of Seattle. Maybe the best yet.

 

Hopefully the precip can hold on a bit longer in the Northern climes.

[seattleweatherguy]

 

Cautionsly optimistic. Looks more like a seattle south snow.

Thanks for the map Bryant much appreciated. I guess I do see some just not as much as seattle south

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Seems pretty generous. Would love if that verified. Doesn't the GEM tend to overdo precip?

 

Looks overdone to me, but I think that's largely a factor of poor resolution. In reality there will be large gaps in the precipitation. However it would just take one stronger than expected band to give 1"+ of snow over a large area.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The 6 nam looks more generous with moisture.

[HighlandExperience]

The 6 nam looks more generous with moisture.

Hope this can overperform for the north.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Hope this can overperform for the north.

 

The HRRR seems a lot faster with the timing of this, which would certainly be a plus for those further north.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017010707/hrrr_ref_frzn_nwus_12.png

[luminen]

I say we all meet up at the Centralia Dairy Queen and hash this s**t out over blizzards.

 

I love Centralia.

 

I mean, i would love to hash it out over blizzards whilst a blixzzard raged outside. 

 

And I totally busted on my forecast for today. Wha a shiiiit show today was here. Nothing but a few early morning flurries barely amounting to a dusting. From now on I won't trust the models so much. Right... 

[luminen]

The last 30 days has been the coldest average temp here i have had in the 19 years at this location.

 

Cold weather is definitely underrated. I forgot how much I love cold weather until it hit in early December. 

[MossMan]

Currently 17F.

[Timmy]

The NAM gives me over a foot of snow betweeen now and Sunday night, I'm guessing it's seeing zr as snow? Gfs says 2-3".

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cams show snow as precip type just north of Roseburg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

27 at PDX, suddenly I don't look so crazy...Most temps down the valley are 25-27, but dp's have dropped overnight, all the way to 12 as far south as Salem, so there will definitely be some wet bulb. North winds are down the valley about 10mph right now with that east wind howling out of the gorge at PDX...

 

In the foothills, the lower foothills are in the mid 20s (25 here), Salem north the 3000-4000' sites are in the mid 20s or lower too. Yellowstone Mtn east of Albany is 34, but with a dp of 14, so they should at least initially wet bulb. Even in southern Oregon I don't see any high elevation stations above about 33-34. 

 

Roseburg has had about .20" of precip as ZR this morning so I assume things are a mess down there...

 

Seeing some wet bulb occurring at some of the foothills stations in Lane Co. Brush Creek at 2200' has dropped from 35 to 31 in the past couple hours. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ZR/Sleet mix at EUG.

 

PDX up to 28 now...My 30 might now be so crazy after all...

[The Swamp]

It's really windy again this morning in the swamp.

[EA_TTD]

This is as hard as the wind has blown in Troutdale in some time. Hardly the in-depth scientific observation but with wind this strong and precip, I've lived here long enough to know that it's going to be a real mess for quite awhile.

[Dave]

Ugh.  26 degrees with freezing rain.  A bit of sleet mixed in.  It looks to get ugly down here again today.

[MossMan]

Still 17F here with a DP of 5.

[Kayla]

ZR/Sleet mix at EUG.

 

PDX up to 28 now...My 30 might now be so crazy after all...

 

That's to be expected with an east wind cranking at 30+ and seems likely they'll top out at 28 on the day. Could see them easily drop down to 22-23 by around noon.

 

Ripping east wind at Crown Point this morning, gusting over 80 there with a PDX-DLS gradient of -13 now. Freezer door is wide open.

[Front Ranger]

Easterly gap winds are going strong in western WA as well. DPs in the single digits at SEA this AM, about the lowest they've been this week.

 

Seattle NWS has issued a WWA for Seattle south, 1-2".

[TT-SEA]

Easterly gap winds are going strong in western WA as well. DPs in the single digits at SEA this AM, about the lowest they've been this week.

 

Seattle NWS has issued a WWA for Seattle south, 1-2".

 

 

Said wind is currently taking the remaining snow off the trees here.   

[Deweydog]

That's to be expected with an east wind cranking at 30+ and seems likely they'll top out at 28 on the day. Could see them easily drop down to 22-23 by around noon.

 

Ripping east wind at Crown Point this morning, gusting over 80 there with a PDX-DLS gradient of -13 now. Freezer door is wide open.

I'd say 25 is the coldest they'll get.

[Kayla]

I'd say 25 is the coldest they'll get.

 

Yeah could be. But in theory wet bulb would bring them down to 22-23 with the current dew points out there.