January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Umadbro?

He'srightbro.

[Bryant]

Umadbro?

This sh*t gets old bro

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Umadbro?

Nope.

[umadbro]

Literally the first time I've said it...

[crf450ish]

Where's the NewBigMac been all winter?

 

 

I always liked his MJO analysis posts.

[MossMan]

Where's the NewBigMac been all winter?

 

 

I always liked his MJO analysis posts.

That is Bryant.

Currently 34 chilly degrees!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z shows the huge snow storm across western Oregon like the Euro did...

[FroYoBro]

06z shows the huge snow storm across western Oregon like the Euro did...

 

The model riding this winter has been amazing. 10/10 ride. 

[Jesse]

The model riding this winter has been amazing. 10/10 ride.

Then you have the fact that we have actually seen significant snow and cold.

[FroYoBro]

Then you have the fact that we have actually seen significant snow and cold.

Of course. That is why it has been so fun. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It turns out reports of winters demise may have been greatly exaggerated. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

It turns out reports of winters demise may have been greatly exaggerated.

Hopefully! But it has not happened .. "yet"

[Jesse]

It turns out reports of winters demise may have been greatly exaggerated.

Yeah, you tend to do that.

[ShawniganLake]

It's a fairly winterlike 25F here this morning.

[Jesse]

Of course. That is why it has been so fun.

nodoubtnodoubtnodoubt

[Bryant]

Where's the NewBigMac been all winter?

 

 

I always liked his MJO analysis posts.

That is me, I appreciate the compliment. This winter has been tough overall, and the MJO has been off and on. The WQBO fights against a cool tropical trop/strat, which is needed for the convection that the MJO thrives in. When the strat warms however, the upper levels of the tropical equator cool and the MJO ignites, which we've seen a couple times this winter.

 

As for what's ahead, it looks like the MJO will push into the Western Hemisphere as we approach mid month, which returns us to the jet extension/Alaskan vortex pattern. With warming of the strat continuing, the MJO could make a full cycle, and return to the Eastern Hemisphere towards the end of the month/beginning of March, which would lead to another window of opportunity

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 12z GFS is still on track for a snowy event. It looks slightly colder / a little further south with the secondary low coming in the weekend. Still looking good for a Thursday night - Friday overrunning event as well.

[IbrChris]

...Daffodil Alert canceled...

 

The Daffodil Alert for the Portland Metropolitan Area has been canceled. The model runs that prompted the Daffodil Alert have given way to colder guidance.

A Daffodil Alert is issued when model guidance suggests temperatures may reach 60 degrees for the first time during the late winter/early spring. A Lowland Snow Bust Watch has been issued for Thursday evening through Saturday for elevations below 1000 feet.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking good

[Kayla]

This winter is insane...

[BLI snowman]

Chilly.

[stuffradio]

This winter is insane...

Insane in the membrane.

[luvssnow_spokane]

A sprouting Daffodil's Nightmare.    The cherry blossoms are in pure freak out mode this morning.

 

 

[MossMan]

Ok I've seen canadian and Oregonian posters saying 12z is awesome...Puget Sounders? Guess I need to look for myself.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Ok I've seen canadian and Oregonian posters saying 12z is awesome...Puget Sounders? Guess I need to look for myself.

Look up ^^^^

[Deweydog]

Chilly.

Hot cake!

[Alex_Snakes]

wow. 12z. Puget Sound sees snow from Sunday until Tuesday. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Honestly, that is about as good as it gets for the puget sound in how some of those lows are tracking. If it holds, we are golden for ALL of the puget sound. Could be glorious...

[IbrChris]

Feb 2014 redux except regional...bring it

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gem in general agreement

[luvssnow_spokane]

Overall the 500MB's look very nice.

 

[Perturbed Member]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017013112/gfs_asnow_nwus_30.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For what its worth it loos like several inches of snow have fallen already this morning in the Columbia Basin. 

[snow_wizard]

Loving the trends. Heights get even lower on this run than the 0z. Quite a gift to have the models rethink the details of the block to such an extreme degree with the event this close. No doubt some places could get crushed with a pattern like or similar to what is being shown.

[Deweydog]

Looks like February 1990-lite.

[Perturbed Member]

Love how aggressively the GFS pushes that cold air south with the BC slider. 522 thickness line to the OR/CA border.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Loving the trends. Heights get even lower on this run than the 0z. Quite a gift to have the models rethink the details of the block to such an extreme degree with the event this close. No doubt some places could get crushed with a pattern like or similar to what is being shown.

I have to agree! Out of all the possible events so far this winter this setup is about the best (most believable) I have seen for the Puget Sound. Now, only if it will play out close to this. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like February 1990-lite.

 

We could do worse...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Winter storm warning just posted for the lower Columbia Basin. 3-5" of snow expected.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

February 1990 was the first time I ever saw snow.