January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Looks like February 1990-lite.

I could live with that. Pretty much everyone scored on that one.

[HighlandExperience]

I could live with that. Pretty much everyone scored on that one.

If the amounts showed on the Gem verified this winter will be redeemed for us.

[snow_wizard]

I have to agree! Out of all the possible events so far this winter this setup is about the best (most believable) I have seen for the Puget Sound. Now, only if it will play out close to this.

It's just amazing to see all of the models change to a solution like that on all of the models on such short notice. Sometimes ones like that end up being the best events of all. For us I like the fact there is a period where it's cold enough for snow with WSW flow aloft. Golden for us. Remains to be seen if an Arctic front situation will emerge or not.

[snow_wizard]

If the amounts showed on the Gem verified this winter will be redeemed for us.

That combined with all of the cold would really help.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

If the amounts showed on the Gem verified this winter will be redeemed for us.

 

Sure would make it hard to complain about this winter.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017013112/gem_asnow_nwus_40.png

[stuffradio]

Sure would make it hard to complain about this winter.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017013112/gem_asnow_nwus_40.png

17-20" of snow for YVR and maybe ~24" for YXX.

[Kayla]

12z GEM on the WeatherBell maps confirm 12-25" of snowfall over the next 10 days on the I5 corridor from Salem to Bellingham.

 

Impressive.

[Guest Sounder]

Sure would make it hard to complain about this winter.

 

 

I don't think I've ever seen a map in which everyone from Medford to Vancouver scores so heavily and so consistently. That would really solidify this as a top tier PNW winter.

[Heavy Snow]

Feb 2014 redux except regional...bring it

I couldn't think of a better way to finish Winter off than with a big regional event that we haven't seen since December 2008.

[Brennan]

2nd gem run in a row to show 2 feet in the north sound.

[HighlandExperience]

2nd gem run in a row to show 2 feet in the north sound.

Excited for Euro

[ShawniganLake]

Pretty solid looking 12z ensemble.

[FroYoBro]

This looks to be the pattern that finally gives all the posters up in Washington a snowstorm. Great setup for up there. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like more ensemble improvement...

[Phil]

At the very least, this should be yet another significant win for the SSW-->MJO theory. This one was very concise..upwell into the stratosphere occurred last week and the convection is now responding accordingly.

 

Looking back to 1979, every SSW event on record was followed by an MJO wave. We saw this happen in November of this year, March of last year, and the monster event back in January 2013.

[Phil]

It's just amazing to see all of the models change to a solution like that on all of the models on such short notice. Sometimes ones like that end up being the best events of all. For us I like the fact there is a period where it's cold enough for snow with WSW flow aloft. Golden for us. Remains to be seen if an Arctic front situation will emerge or not.

I'm not surprised at all. Remember the wild swings back in January of 2013 with that SSW? The models take awhile to lock onto the tropical convective response to the breakdown of the PV and associated equator/pole thermals and flux/export fields.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rod Hill calling for 2-4" of snow at PDX on Friday morning...What the heck?!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Right now the NWS is forecasting a high of 48 at my place on Monday...Might be about 15 degrees to warm...

[crf450ish]

[HighlandExperience]

One thing I love about this: Even as the 850s drop, the precip doesn't.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

This cold spell has more potential for Puget Sound. Lack of precip shouldn't be an issue this time (crossing fingers)

[BLI snowman]

Rod Hill calling for 2-4" of snow at PDX on Friday morning...What the heck?!

 

Thursday night looks decent for a pretty quick snowfall, moisture while the column still supports it will be an issue though. 3-4" isn't going to happen.

[HighlandExperience]

12z Euro looks much snowier through hr 096 than 00z.

Awesome when does most of that fall?

[bainbridgekid]

12z Euro looks much snowier through hr 096 than 00z.

Wow. That's pretty much all Friday too, right?

 

Looks like the Euro tracks Friday's low PERFECTLY just South of Seattle, while the GFS brings it to the NW tip of Washington. 

 

FWIW, the Canadian is closer to the Euro's Southern track too.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017013112/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png

 

Pretty fun how this upcoming pattern has suddenly gotten so interesting.

[Phil]

This might be one of my better calls of late.

 

There will almost certainly be another -EPO stretch, probably centered during the first week of February. That's the window I'm watching for you guys..could be very impressive. The +EPO/US torch regime will break down in late January, FWIW.

 

So, AC few weeks of NPAC/AK jet/troughing, followed by a westward retrogression of these features. Eventually the US/Hudson Bay ridge will relocate over W/NW North America, then probably break into EPO/NPAC domain. So a mild stretch, followed by a discontinuous retrogression and cooldown.

Interesting to note that the upcoming +EAMT/NPAC jet extension will blow away anything observed during last winter's super niño event. Like, it's not even close. SoCal/SW US will be cashing in big time over the next 10-15 days.

 

Huge changes upcoming during late January, though, partially as a result of this regime. We'll have the EAMT/tropical convection reversing phase, partially in response to this NPAC cyclonic regime perturbing the global stratosphere and reducing the tropical static stability, on aggregate, via a cooling of the equatorial tropopause. The NPAC jet will pull back with the cyclonic train shifting into NE Russia and the NW Pacific, placing ideal surf zone across NPAC, which will lead to another round of EPO and/or NAM/polar based blocking.

 

In some respects, this may be similar to the systematic transition from November into December, however, due to differences in the seasonal relationships and alterations to the background state in general, the result will be somewhat different. Will likely be a significant EPO drop, but otherwise, differences likely in WPO domain, possibly NAM/AO as well. Could be less WPO, more EPO/NAM.

Will be a fun ride. Eventually models will catch on, assuming I'm correct which is never a given, especially in winters like this.

Remember the bolded and knock on wood.

[Heavy Snow]

Here is totals for the weekend. 4PM Friday-4PM Monday. Wow.

The 12z EURO hammers you up there. The system on Monday takes too much of a northern path for PDX. The Northern OR and Southern WA coastlines get hammered and some snow reaches into Washington, Columbia and Cowlitz County.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF shows King County getting clobbered early next week.

[snow_wizard]

Here are totals for the weekend. 4PM Friday-4PM Monday. Wow.

Holy crap!

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF is downright serious. Major snowstorm early next week where 850s plunge from -2 to -8 over SEA in 6 hours. After that 850s drop to -10 by day 8.

[Heavy Snow]

Its looking more and more likely a strong system will approach from the SW in the Sunday overnight to Monday time frame. Whoever is on the north side of the track will get clobbered. Then colder air arrives behind the system. This thing is going to be fun to track.

[snow_wizard]

This might be one of my better calls of late.

 

 

Remember the bolded and knock on wood.

Could be a great call. I wondered a little bit given the MJO wave, but I had pretty much given up on it.

[snow_wizard]

Now for round 3.. or 4? I'm losing count on this run.

The Euro is fantasmagorical.

[IbrChris]

This could end up being a snowy 7-10 days for a lot of people along the I-5 corridor....even taking an average of the models most folks would get 3-6"

[TT-SEA]

Wow... total snow for the next week.   It starts Friday... but the big event is early next week.

 

[IbrChris]

This might be one of my better calls of late.

 

 

Remember the bolded and knock on wood.

Good call and most global models have been calling for warm/+EPO until the flip in the last ~48 hours or so toward a much colder west and -EPO.

[Jbolin]

Jeez, I go on vacation for 10 days come back and the major suites go bonkers in the span of 2 days. And it looks like Puget Sound may actually get the "goods" this go around.

Wtf happened?

[IbrChris]

Wow... total snow for the next week.   It starts Friday... but the big event is early next week.

 

Your turn to have a foot-plus of snow. I'm ok if it misses me.

[Heavy Snow]

This could end up being a snowy 7-10 days for a lot of people along the I-5 corridor....even taking an average of the models most folks would get 3-6"

I have had 17" total snow so far so I'm hoping for at least 7" to break the 2 foot mark.

[Heavy Snow]

Wow... total snow for the next week. It starts Friday... but the big event is early next week.

 

The potential next week is monumental.

[Heavy Snow]

This might be one of my better calls of late.

 

 

Remember the bolded and knock on wood.

You made the call for the late January to mid February period way long ago as our best chance of a region wide event. You've spent so much time on this forum helping us understand more about weather. I hope all your hard work doesn't go to waste and the PNW sees its biggest region wide snowstorm since December 2008. You deserve to be right.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Every map gives "my location" at least a foot...