Money Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 So based on the ensembles it looks like the OP GFS was by far the fastest and farther north of it's members, and UKIE came in pretty slow as well.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 I would take sleet over freezing rain any day of the week. Barely had any today and it was still a pain in the a** to drive in Sleet is just aggravating because it takes so much of it to accumulate and you're right on the edge of getting a snowstorm. It's just a middle finger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Sleet is just aggravating because it takes so much of it to accumulate and you're right on the edge of getting a snowstorm. It's just a middle finger.It lasts forever though. Bulletproof pack. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 It lasts forever though. Bulletproof pack. Well it's just not that fun to watch or be in imho. Wasted opportunity at a nice winter storm if it's all you get. It really cuts into snow accumulations too. Hopefully I'm far enough Northwest to avoid it but it's going to be close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Well it's just not that fun to watch or be in imho. Wasted opportunity at a nice winter storm if it's all you get. It really cuts into snow accumulations too. Hopefully I'm far enough Northwest to avoid it but it's going to be close.I think you would be in a good spot for mainly snow. This is going to get very interesting for mets in the next couple days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Euro is stronger/more precip this run and a tad warmer so far through 90 compared to 12z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Less precip for DSM on this run of the Euro. Let me know any late nighters that want their text output. here is Des Moines'SUN 00Z 15-JAN -2.8 1.4 1033 40 51 0.00 570 544 SUN 06Z 15-JAN -2.8 -0.1 1032 41 74 0.00 569 544 SUN 12Z 15-JAN -3.6 0.8 1029 74 91 0.06 568 545 SUN 18Z 15-JAN -2.3 2.7 1026 81 91 0.02 567 547 MON 00Z 16-JAN -2.7 4.8 1023 92 93 0.09 566 548 MON 06Z 16-JAN -2.6 6.0 1020 96 95 0.09 565 550 MON 12Z 16-JAN -1.2 7.4 1014 98 57 0.38 562 550 MON 18Z 16-JAN 2.3 5.8 1012 98 68 0.05 558 549 TUE 00Z 17-JAN 4.6 3.9 1010 99 67 0.05 557 549 TUE 06Z 17-JAN 0.9 2.5 1011 96 58 0.01 555 546 TUE 12Z 17-JAN 0.5 -1.2 1010 98 62 0.00 549 541 TUE 18Z 17-JAN 0.9 -1.7 1011 73 91 0.01 546 537 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 How's Lincoln looking? Thx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 How's Lincoln looking? ThxLincoln, NESUN 00Z 15-JAN -2.3 1.0 1032 39 77 0.00 572 546 SUN 06Z 15-JAN -3.5 3.6 1031 82 97 0.13 571 547 SUN 12Z 15-JAN -3.5 2.4 1028 87 96 0.12 568 547 SUN 18Z 15-JAN -2.8 3.8 1025 89 96 0.07 567 548 MON 00Z 16-JAN -2.7 5.2 1021 96 99 0.18 565 549 MON 06Z 16-JAN -2.4 6.5 1016 97 98 0.17 563 550 MON 12Z 16-JAN -0.3 4.0 1010 99 41 0.29 555 547 MON 18Z 16-JAN 2.6 1.0 1009 99 88 0.04 550 542 TUE 00Z 17-JAN 0.2 0.0 1012 96 65 0.02 550 540 TUE 06Z 17-JAN -1.7 -1.5 1015 89 67 0.00 549 537 TUE 12Z 17-JAN -4.2 -3.6 1015 83 79 0.03 548 536 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -0.5 -1.7 1016 58 63 0.01 554 541 WED 00Z 18-JAN -1.7 -0.3 1017 72 57 0.00 557 544 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Looking a lot better than last runs. Seems drier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Lincoln, NESUN 00Z 15-JAN -2.3 1.0 1032 39 77 0.00 572 546 SUN 06Z 15-JAN -3.5 3.6 1031 82 97 0.13 571 547 SUN 12Z 15-JAN -3.5 2.4 1028 87 96 0.12 568 547 SUN 18Z 15-JAN -2.8 3.8 1025 89 96 0.07 567 548 MON 00Z 16-JAN -2.7 5.2 1021 96 99 0.18 565 549 MON 06Z 16-JAN -2.4 6.5 1016 97 98 0.17 563 550 MON 12Z 16-JAN -0.3 4.0 1010 99 41 0.29 555 547 MON 18Z 16-JAN 2.6 1.0 1009 99 88 0.04 550 542 TUE 00Z 17-JAN 0.2 0.0 1012 96 65 0.02 550 540 TUE 06Z 17-JAN -1.7 -1.5 1015 89 67 0.00 549 537 TUE 12Z 17-JAN -4.2 -3.6 1015 83 79 0.03 548 536 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -0.5 -1.7 1016 58 63 0.01 554 541 WED 00Z 18-JAN -1.7 -0.3 1017 72 57 0.00 557 544 OLU please, thx. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 OLU please, thx.SUN 00Z 15-JAN -2.7 1.9 1031 32 56 0.00 570 545 SUN 06Z 15-JAN -4.6 2.3 1030 49 75 0.00 570 546 SUN 12Z 15-JAN -3.5 1.9 1027 72 98 0.01 567 546 SUN 18Z 15-JAN -3.1 1.7 1025 85 97 0.02 566 546 MON 00Z 16-JAN -3.4 2.6 1022 94 100 0.24 564 547 MON 06Z 16-JAN -3.0 4.8 1018 95 98 0.22 562 548 MON 12Z 16-JAN -2.2 2.3 1012 94 17 0.47 555 545 MON 18Z 16-JAN -0.8 1.7 1011 97 92 0.07 549 540 TUE 00Z 17-JAN -1.0 -1.2 1014 92 88 0.17 548 537 TUE 06Z 17-JAN -3.5 -2.6 1016 89 90 0.03 548 536 TUE 12Z 17-JAN -5.8 -2.4 1016 87 94 0.18 548 536 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -3.8 -1.6 1017 80 77 0.03 553 540 WED 00Z 18-JAN -5.3 0.7 1017 86 58 0.00 557 543 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Less precip ToastedRavs--- but did you notice the surface is colder and the 850 warmer??? (compared to the 12Z) Not a good as sign. .6" of ice would shut DSM down Monday AM Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Less precip ToastedRavs--- but did you notice the surface is colder and the 850 warmer??? (compared to the 12Z) Not a good as sign. .6" of ice would shut DSM down Monday AM I did notice that. The only plus side of this thing for us here in the metro and throughout the area is that it will primarily fall on the holiday weekend, with Monday being the holiday. At least that'll help with road treatments Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Does the Euro have the ability to show any sleet accum. Omaha seems to be just NW of the heavy frz rain but the snow fall is in central to NE Nebraska? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Does the Euro have the ability to show any sleet accum. Omaha seems to be just NW of the heavy frz rain but the snow fall is in central to NE Nebraska? The only place I have seen a sleet forecast, or one that takes in account for sleet with snow, is the SPIA Index. I think it's run by a couple of guys from OU, or former OU I should say. But, I think they only forecast out 48 hours in advance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 PL or sleet would likely have to have 925mb (about 2500ft AGL below freezing.) From looking at the Euro-- it's possible at times but way too much going on to say where at this juncture. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Thank you for the information! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 The COBB output also does sleet forecast but I am not sure how accurate that is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Yeah no point in trying to pinpoint that stuff right now. It's still 100+ hours away and storm isn't even sampled/onshore yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 I just did a quick glance at some COBB outputs from the 0z GFS, it had LNK at .08" of PL, nada for DSM and Omaha but KSUX, or Sioux City had 3.2" of snow with additional .36" of PL, or sleet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 In areas where the warm nose is strong enough to cause full melting of precip as it falls, you'd want to have a layer around -4 or -5C (or colder) underneath the warm nose to make sleet more likely. Anything warmer than that and the precip probably wouldn't be able to refreeze in time before hitting the ground. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Sleet is just aggravating because it takes so much of it to accumulate and you're right on the edge of getting a snowstorm. It's just a middle finger. My NWS forecast for Sunday night is a 90% chance of rain with a low of 34. Another middle finger. Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educatorjen Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Omaha: From the National Weather Service SundayA chance of freezing rain and sleet before 2pm, then a chance of snow and sleet between 2pm and 5pm, then a chance of rain or freezing rain after 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 50%.Sunday NightRain, freezing rain, and sleet before 2am, then freezing rain, possibly mixed with sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 26.M.L.King DayRain, freezing rain, and sleet likely before 3pm, then a chance of rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet between 3pm and 5pm, then a chance of snow after 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 34.Monday NightA chance of snow before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=311766 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=311766 pass! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Here's the run through the 17th. Taken from Ryan Maue on twitter. If this verifies, some people are in trouble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=311766I hate ice....give me rain and 60s in January instead of ice. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Here's the run through the 17th. Taken from Ryan Maue on twitter. If this verifies, some people are in trouble.That is a widespread crippling ice storm for NE/KS and near the TX/OK Pan Handle...sheesh! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 12z GFS: Ice: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017011212/144/zr_acc.us_c.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017011212/144/zr_acc.us_mw.png Snow: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017011212/144/snku_acc.us_c.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Less ice on the 12Z run. mainly 3/4" or less everywhere. there were some weird precip maps though, with holes in the middle of the precip fields. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Chiefs/Steelers game in KC on Sunday could be fun. Noon kickoff in an ice storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Upper level Low should actually have good sampling for tonights runs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 12z GGEM...model that always seems to run to cold... Ice: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017011212/138/zr_acc.conus.png Snow: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017011212/138/snku_acc.conus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 12z GGEM...model that always seems to run to cold... Ice: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017011212/138/zr_acc.conus.png Snow: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017011212/138/snku_acc.conus.png RIP Kansas, you'll be missed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 The Chiefs game on Sunday should be awesome to watch 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Keep moving that heavier ice nw.. they can have it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Euro looks a little faster than the GFS thru 96. No chance at a front end thump to the east of the low according to the EURO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Speed up some more Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Interesting-- Wonder what that means for us north of the low? Obviously fast movers aren't good for anyone, but I don't necessarily want sleet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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