snow_wizard Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Unreal. Someone in the puget sound must have pissed off Mother Nature pretty bad back in 2012. So you've accepted he's right already. Not saying it's not possible, but it's far from a lock how this is going to unfold. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 So you've accepted he's right already. Not saying it's not possible, but it's far from a lock how this is going to unfold.No. I don't think the models have it locked in. What was looking potentially historic for Vancouver island a couple days ago, is looking pretty marginally average now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 So you've accepted he's right already. Not saying it's not possible, but it's far from a lock how this is going to unfold. Inevitable southward trend has arrived... the theme for the winter. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Loving the 33 degree rain we had all night. Looks like Portland scores again and we will get screwed. Oh well, nothing better than consistency. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 The deformation band has hit, 32F and dumping snow here in Victoria now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Inevitable southward trend has arrived... the theme for the winter.Yep! I can almost guarantee this is going to bust again for us. Been there done that and the writing is on the wall. 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Snow really coming down here now. 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Snow really coming down here now. Sounds like another busted WRF snow forecast, the Puget Sound wasn't predicted to see any accumulation. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Good God almighty - 5 year snow drought or not, you are incredibly fast to jump ship.When I gotta itch I scratch it. this one is burning like hell. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Only goes out to Sunday at 4pm but the NAM 3km has had the best track record this winter and it shows the same trend. I left the West Hills about a month early! Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 I think the 12z GFS is going to be slightly further north, which is good. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Only goes out to Sunday at 4pm but the NAM 3km has had the best track record this winter and it shows the same trend. I left the West Hills about a month early! kWHALyt - Imgur.jpg That's like 18" here... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 I think the 12z GFS is going to be slightly further north, which is good.3mb stronger than the 6z with the low at hour 54. Definitely a good thing. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 I think the 12z GFS is going to be slightly further north, which is good. PDX ground zero...again?! Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 12Z GFS is definitely trending south. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Ground zero looks like anywhere above 1000', but I bet the mesoscale models are generous... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 12Z GFS is definitely trending south. It is north of the 06z... 12z has excellent low placement. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 It is north of the 06z... 12z has excellent low placement. I am comparing to the 00Z run. I usually don't compare trends using the 06Z and 18Z run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 The low position looks good, but it is just a little too warm for the lowest levels in Oregon. I also think the energy that stays off the northern coast may influence this problem. Looks like a big snowstorm above 1,000 feet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Looks similar to the 2/29/12 event. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bham_Guy Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Steady light to moderate snow with a temp of 28 degrees here now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 3mb stronger than the 6z with the low at hour 54. Definitely a good thing.According to Tim...nope. Anyway snowing and blowing here at my 2nd job at sea level! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 29F and up to about 2" here now. Looks nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Snowing here. Dumping. Really coming down. I hope we get a miracle and this doesn't all change to slop later, especially considering the major dumpage late weekend is all being shown way south of Bellingham. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Gem looks good Albany to Kelso Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Listening to a scanner app for Whatcom County, starting to have quite a few issues of drivers struggling to keep the rubber side down. Temp still dropping at my house... I would love to see this stay as snow all day! Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Check that GEM looks good for W. WA too Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Check that GEM looks good for W. WA tooI was about to accuse you of being a meanie. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Up to an inch here now. Flakes turned really fine. Snow is blowing around. Doesn't FEEL like a rainy day. Guess we'll see 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 ... And it actually hasn't performed too bad this season. That being said, with how borderline the setup for Sunday/Monday looks, I like Puget Sound chances better than PDX.Agreed. Temps are very borderline. Gem is actually solid for western wa. Snowy for the early part of the week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Well that was disappointing, the band moved out almost as quickly as it started; lasted less than an hour. Some of the recent NAM runs had it in the area for as long as 4~5 hours. This continues a theme of it being painfully difficult to get any sort of sustained precipitation in Victoria. Oh well, maybe next time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Pretty heavy sideways snow here in Lynden this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Well that was disappointing, the band moved out almost as quickly as it started; lasted less than an hour. Some of the recent NAM runs had it in the area for as long as 4~5 hours. This continues a theme of it being painfully difficult to get any sort of sustained precipitation in Victoria. Oh well, maybe next time.Passing through here pretty quickly too. It was fun while it lasted. I guess now it's wait and see what the next round brings. And the EURO... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 12z WRF is showing that PDX begins to develop a nearly isothermal profile as early as late Sunday AM or early afternoon. There is a ton of precip to come after this time too. Might be a bunch of wet snow. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/kpdx.54.0000.snd.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Seattle NWS still wouldn't admit in their AM discussion that there was any actual snow in the Puget Sound lowlands last night/early this AM. Only freezing rain and sleet. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Seattle NWS still wouldn't admit in their AM discussion that there was any actual snow in the Puget Sound lowlands last night/early this AM. Only freezing rain and sleet. They are just looking at alternative facts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 06z NAVGEM seems to have moved the low south too, not as far as the GFS though which seems to want to give Eugene a snowstorm. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017020306/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_12.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017020306/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_13.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 This mornings snow is just a taste test for the real deal coming in a few days!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 I still feel this track is ideal for western wa. The temps are borderline, and having the low come over northern Oregon will be good for us. Looking forward to the Euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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