Front Ranger Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 1968-69 and 1949-50, although the late January events in both years were spread out over several days. And then 1915-16 before that. Yep, so I was right with my guess for the past 100 years. Though yeah, not necessarily one storm with both of those. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 I dunno. We will have a setup with a lot of low level cold just north of us and backwash northerly winds behind a departing low. It might be colder than you think.We are getting screwed by the nam. Really hope that is wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Wait for the euro and pray Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenochtitlan Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Florence Oregon gets a foot of snow, Seattle almost nothing. Hahahaha that would never happen. or would it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 I dunno. We will have a setup with a lot of low level cold just north of us and backwash northerly winds behind a departing low. It might be colder than you think.You need to trust the ECMWF way more for temperatures. You have access to it. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Wait for the euro and prayWe need the Euro to hold its ground and have everything shift north by 50 miles right before the event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 GFS MOS is really warm for Sunday (46) and Monday (low of 34 and up 37 by 10 a.m.) in Seattle. Same thing happened on New Years and it was discounted but it should not have been. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenochtitlan Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 I feel like this winter is a cruel and vindictive old man who hates Seattle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 The crappy rpm shows no snow for Seattle. Wtf I really don't get why some models show such a sharp cut off in precip/snow to the north. We've got a setup with a low sliding down BC, a low in NE WA and the low from the SW. That seems a bit suspect to me. I think the snow should extend pretty far north. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 We are getting screwed by the nam. Really hope that is wrong Of all the models it was the last to give in and go with a cold trend for Sunday - Tuesday was the NAM. It seems better for 12-24 hour forecasts than 24+ hour forecasts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017020400/nam3km_asnow_nwus_61.png 3km NAM still puts the bullseye for snow well south of PDX. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted February 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 How much snow you see today?Not too much, 1-2" so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Ended up with about 1.5" of snow on the ground here, but it looks like the band has slid just to the north. If some of the models are to be believed this might be all we get for this event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 If this verifies, I'll eat a sock. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 I am torn between the usual northward trend in the models that we have always seen and come to trust over the years... and the tendency for things to shift south this winter. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 I've reached my breaking point for this winter I think. I let the weather affect me more than it should, and Brennan, Mattias, and Phil have had to listen to me b*tch way too often. Since I've started watching the models back in 2010, this winter has disgusted me the most. Not due to the lack of snow, but how the lack of snow has been achieved. It's not like we haven't had chances, or that the models haven't shown some great storms, it's that in the end, they continue to f*ck us over and over. The new south trend the models decided to collectively develop this year has truly been a disappointment for many. The rich get richer. I hope I'm just a jinx, because maybe leaving the forum for a while will bring the members that deserve some snow a little luck. Good luck everyone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 If this verifies, I'll eat a sock. Eat it with your fork. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 I am torn between the usual northward trend in the models that we have always seen and come to trust over the years... and the tendency for things to shift south this winter. Go with the models trending south and then last second 25-50 mile jog north. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 He's correct that right now, it appears to be the best setup for Seattle area snow yet this winter. The ultra-conservative Seattle NWS is going with 1-3" three days out. That tells you something.The snow is one thing, but this flash freeze notion is pretty out there. No matter who gets significant accumulations with the baroclinic madness, Monday will be quite a sloppy mess. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 The snow is one thing, but this flash freeze notion is pretty out there. No matter who gets significant accumulations with the baroclinic madness, Monday will be quite a sloppy mess. No doubt about that. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 I've reached my breaking point for this winter I think. I let the weather affect me more than it should, and Brennan, Mattias, and Phil have had to listen to me b*tch way too often. Since I've started watching the models back in 2010, this winter has disgusted me the most. Not due to the lack of snow, but how the lack of snow has been achieved. It's not like we haven't had chances, or that the models haven't shown some great storms, it's that in the end, they continue to f*ck us over and over. The new south trend the models decided to collectively develop this year has truly been a disappointment for many. The rich get richer. I hope I'm just a jinx, because maybe leaving the forum for a while will bring the members that deserve some snow a little luck. Good luck everyone It's not the models' fault. It's the current system state and plain bad luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 I've reached my breaking point for this winter I think. I let the weather affect me more than it should, and Brennan, Mattias, and Phil have had to listen to me b*tch way too often. Since I've started watching the models back in 2010, this winter has disgusted me the most. Not due to the lack of snow, but how the lack of snow has been achieved. It's not like we haven't had chances, or that the models haven't shown some great storms, it's that in the end, they continue to f*ck us over and over. The new south trend the models decided to collectively develop this year has truly been a disappointment for many. The rich get richer. I hope I'm just a jinx, because maybe leaving the forum for a while will bring the members that deserve some snow a little luck. Good luck everyoneThe models don't control the weather. And haven't you been getting snow today? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 The brilliant RPM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 I've reached my breaking point for this winter I think. I let the weather affect me more than it should, and Brennan, Mattias, and Phil have had to listen to me b*tch way too often. Since I've started watching the models back in 2010, this winter has disgusted me the most. Not due to the lack of snow, but how the lack of snow has been achieved. It's not like we haven't had chances, or that the models haven't shown some great storms, it's that in the end, they continue to f*ck us over and over. The new south trend the models decided to collectively develop this year has truly been a disappointment for many. The rich get richer. I hope I'm just a jinx, because maybe leaving the forum for a while will bring the members that deserve some snow a little luck. Good luck everyone Look at this way... reality is reality. The models could have been ridiculously south all winter with the usual trend north instead. But the end result would be the same either way. This way we have had more fun in tracking the events. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 The brilliant RPM Spring-Break-film-images-e59d5f25-7316-4f4d-8023-e2cefcc3e34.jpg Was just about to post this....Would be a once in 25-30 year event if it verified... 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Was just about to post this....Would be a once in 25-30 year event if it verified...Good thing the rpm is never right Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 The brilliant RPM RPM_72_SNOW_00z.jpg That is ridiculous. And so is this... 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 The brilliant RPM RPM_72_SNOW_00z.jpg Every single run of this thing has been trending higher and higher for PDX. Too bad it is the RPM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 00z GFS has the low heading in a bit further north it seems. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 Good thing the rpm is never right Tough odds against the 3km NAM within 36 hours though. It's been locked in during the short term all winter. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 00z GFS has the low heading in a bit further north it seems.Yup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 The center of the offshore low on Sunday looks pretty far offshore, more so than any recent GFS run. This is far from resolved, it's still an unstable pattern. Remember not long ago the models did away with the prospect of snow after tonight entirely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 GFS looks a little better for Seattle. Doesn't look any worse for PDX IMO. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 The center of the offshore low on Sunday looks pretty far offshore, more so than any recent GFS run. This is far from resolved, it's still an unstable pattern. Remember not long ago the models did away with the prospect of snow after tonight entirely.Noticed that. Wonder how that's going to impact things later on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 The GFS resolution isn't good enough to show the layer going isothermal...This run looks better for PDX than the 18z to me...Heavier precip for PDX and the valley. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 For the record there has been no snow in bellingham today since before 9am. 32* rain, all day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 The GFS resolution isn't good enough to show the layer going isothermal...This run looks better for PDX than the 18z to me...Heavier precip for PDX and the valley. I'm really surprised it still shows it being rain at hour 66 with heights that low, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 4, 2017 Report Share Posted February 4, 2017 For the record there has been no snow in bellingham today since before 9am. 32* rain, all day. BLI is still reporting snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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