Hawkeye Posted December 11, 2022 Report Share Posted December 11, 2022 Cold and dry seems to be winning out on the models. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 11, 2022 Report Share Posted December 11, 2022 What a horrible start to our snow season. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted December 11, 2022 Report Share Posted December 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: What a horrible start to our snow season. No real sign of any change coming either… rinse, wash, repeat (more cold and dry upcoming). 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 11, 2022 Report Share Posted December 11, 2022 .2” of snow so far this year and somewhere between 2-6” of snow over the next 16 days doesn’t exactly get a person that excited. But hey it’ll be cold Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 11, 2022 Report Share Posted December 11, 2022 6 hours ago, Tom said: On this day in history, 22 years ago, parts of our Sub were hit by a major winter storm that ejected out of the CO Rockies and took a favorable track for the MW/GL's region. Can we see more of this in our weather pattern? Nature does repeat and as @gabel23 mentioned, I think this years LRC pattern is quite fascinating one that will produce juicy and wound up systems. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=140&interval=15&year=2000&month=12&day=10&hour=17&minute=35 Beast of a pre-Christmas blizzard. A true bliz at that. 14-20" across much of SMI. Forecast was accurate and the storm delivered. None of the 12-18" and you don't hit 6" crap. A storm of that caliber hits SMI pre-Christmas on avg twice a century and we're nowhere near "due" so we can fondly remember but put it back up on its trophy shelf, lol. SMI Big Dog rankings by impact. Depending on yby's locale, you may not agree ofc. For the record, there has never been a single storm that covered every county of SMI region with double digits. One corner usually is the focus or the other and vice-versa. When I show totals, that was widespread in the harder hit areas. 1) Bliz of '78 Up to 36" 2) Bliz of '67 Up to 30" 3) Bliz of '99 15-30" 4) Dec '00 bliz 14-20" 5) Jan '14 PV storm Up to 22" 6) Bliz of '79 Up to 20" 7) GHD-2 storm Up to 20" 8)) GHD-1 bliz Up to 18" 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 11, 2022 Report Share Posted December 11, 2022 18 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: .2” of snow so far this year and somewhere between 2-6” of snow over the next 16 days doesn’t exactly get a person that excited. But hey it’ll be cold But hey, look at my little hot corner of The Mitt. Could be worse, lol. Funny how it has a huge void right where @Tom & @Clinton say there will be action, lol. Let the fur fly as to who is correct in the end. 1 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 11, 2022 Report Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Bryan1117 said: No real sign of any change coming either… rinse, wash, repeat (more cold and dry upcoming). Pretty pessimistic of anything of substance around here. Now there is nothing forecasted in the extended as had been shown a couple of days ago in the models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 11, 2022 Report Share Posted December 11, 2022 20 minutes ago, jaster220 said: But hey, look at my little hot corner of The Mitt. Could be worse, lol. Funny how it has a huge void right where @Tom & @Clinton say there will be action, lol. Let the fur fly as to who is correct in the end. 2 systems between the 19th and 25th. it's not a question of whether they will be there but where exactly they will track. Here is what the Euro Control thinks today. The GEFS: EPS: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 11, 2022 Report Share Posted December 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, Clinton said: 2 systems between the 19th and 25th. it's not a question of whether they will be there but where exactly they will track. Here is what the Euro Control thinks today. The GEFS: EPS: #FestiveMiracle 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 11, 2022 Report Share Posted December 11, 2022 NWS Kansas City @NWSKansasCity Something to be aware of as we head toward the holidays - confidence continues to increase that colder than normal (with periods of much colder than normal) temperatures will move into the region for mid to late December. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2022 Report Share Posted December 11, 2022 51 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Beast of a pre-Christmas blizzard. A true bliz at that. 14-20" across much of SMI. Forecast was accurate and the storm delivered. None of the 12-18" and you don't hit 6" crap. A storm of that caliber hits SMI pre-Christmas on avg twice a century and we're nowhere near "due" so we can fondly remember but put it back up on its trophy shelf, lol. SMI Big Dog rankings by impact. Depending on yby's locale, you may not agree ofc. For the record, there has never been a single storm that covered every county of SMI region with double digits. One corner usually is the focus or the other and vice-versa. When I show totals, that was widespread in the harder hit areas. That's pretty incredible. 1999 didn't do it? I can think of a couple storms in the last 25 years off the top of my head that covered half or more of the state of Indiana with double digit amounts. The Jan 1999 and Jan 2014 storms. The 2014 storm actually had a larger footprint of double digit totals in IN. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 11, 2022 Report Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Clinton said: 2 systems between the 19th and 25th. it's not a question of whether they will be there but where exactly they will track. Here is what the Euro Control thinks today. The GEFS: EPS: Love the optimism and very very much appreciate the maps, I really do but I've had a lot of map snow and not so much falling on my head snow. The storm that just passed through. You know, the one the Euro "Can-Troll" showed 10" here on more than one run. I don't think 10 flakes fell here. I've deemed model maps all but useless until proven otherwise. I'll need to see real flakes flying before buying anything. This is a self-preservation tactic, LOL 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 11, 2022 Report Share Posted December 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Love the optimism and very very much appreciate the maps, I really do but I've had a lot of map snow and not so much falling on my head snow. The storm that just passed through. You know, the one the Euro "Can-Troll" showed 10" here on more than one run. I don't think 10 flakes fell here. I've deemed model maps all but useless until proven otherwise. I'll need to see real flakes flying before buying anything. This is a self-preservation tactic, LOL Don't blame you one bit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 11, 2022 Report Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: That's pretty incredible. 1999 didn't do it? I can think of a couple storms in the last 25 years off the top of my head that covered half or more of the state of Indiana with double digit amounts. The Jan 1999 and Jan 2014 storms. The 2014 storm actually had a larger footprint of double digit totals in IN. I rode out 1999 at my sister's place in the Thumb. The absolute worst place. A decent storm at 8-ish inches but nothing like the historic event the other 3/4 of SMI enjoyed. Northern SEMI was the low-ball region for that one. With 67 it was the two corner extremes, far NW and far SE that got low-balled. 78 cut totals to singe digits in S half of SEMI due to a period of mixing issues. Jan 67 had the most 15+ coverage iirc Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2022 Report Share Posted December 11, 2022 19 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Love the optimism and very very much appreciate the maps, I really do but I've had a lot of map snow and not so much falling on my head snow. The storm that just passed through. You know, the one the Euro "Can-Troll" showed 10" here on more than one run. I don't think 10 flakes fell here. I've deemed model maps all but useless until proven otherwise. I'll need to see real flakes flying before buying anything. This is a self-preservation tactic, LOL Would be nice to see the individual ensemble members to see how many are actually producing snow in the area. You can have most members producing some snow, or a handful of members producing a ton of snow with most not producing and the ensemble mean would look similar. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 11, 2022 Report Share Posted December 11, 2022 27 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Love the optimism and very very much appreciate the maps, I really do but I've had a lot of map snow and not so much falling on my head snow. The storm that just passed through. You know, the one the Euro "Can-Troll" showed 10" here on more than one run. I don't think 10 flakes fell here. I've deemed model maps all but useless until proven otherwise. I'll need to see real flakes flying before buying anything. This is a self-preservation tactic, LOL At least it will get cold. Obviously not as cold as the models are showing because they are a joke. But cold nonetheless. And if it gets colder that means chances of snow. I prefer the models to overdue the cold because it means the storm tracks will be completely wrong in the long range. So anything is possible. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 11, 2022 Report Share Posted December 11, 2022 9 hours ago, Tom said: I have been thinking about this idea time and time again over the years while following the LRC. I've seen examples of storms of the past that look very similar to storms that tracked during various years. If you can combine the "art" of using historical analogs like JB does and use the technology that Gary Lezak has developed over the years, boy, you can imagine the power of forecasting the weather. Has to take a huge photographic/numerical memory to do what he (Bastardi) and JD have been doing for the last several years now. Calling the trifecta winters of 2009-10, 10-11 and 2011-12 was off the charts crazy, and absolutely right on. Same with Sandy off a storm analog from goodness knows where and when ago. When someone discovers how to combine all three parts and break away from dependency on climate modeling to do smaller scale patterning; (when its largely known now that there are many historical climate events they cannot replicate. Documented case being the 1976-1979 climate shift, and dust bowl event contrasted with 2019-22s dual drought in the plains and california and into the desert sw.))....there will be a more solid base of forecasters using real experience with their model use the way these guys do. I think "relocalizing" weather offices or decentralizing them to people/observer/forecasters would actually make things better. A blend of the old-school and new. Examples being, we have known the GFS's biases going on 15 plus years now on the hobby driven expert level even. With enough to hedge them outside 4 days. They don't ever fix them. Same with euro.... These guys still grow and tune their skills off real stuff. Another two old-school guys that deserve mention are Jim Flowers and Larry Cosgrove. They have brought a great deal to weather forecasting in the last 2 decades. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 11, 2022 Report Share Posted December 11, 2022 Excited to see reruns showing up of what looks like a "Blitz 2000" scenario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 11, 2022 Report Share Posted December 11, 2022 9 hours ago, Tom said: On this day in history, 22 years ago, parts of our Sub were hit by a major winter storm that ejected out of the CO Rockies and took a favorable track for the MW/GL's region. Can we see more of this in our weather pattern? Nature does repeat and as @gabel23 mentioned, I think this years LRC pattern is quite fascinating one that will produce juicy and wound up systems. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=140&interval=15&year=2000&month=12&day=10&hour=17&minute=35 12-11-00 was the Big Dog and the first of several storms in a train of storms. Deep deep snow cover blanketed most of SMI peaking just a few days before Christmas. You can see a distinct jack-zone in SCMI where Albion (10 mi east of Marshall) over to Jackson scored the most/best combo of all three waves. 18-20" with the bliz. Albion is a small town but has a high-end liberal arts college and has collected wx data for many decades: 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2022 Report Share Posted December 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, Stacsh said: At least it will get cold. Obviously not as cold as the models are showing because they are a joke. But cold nonetheless. And if it gets colder that means chances of snow. I prefer the models to overdue the cold because it means the storm tracks will be completely wrong in the long range. So anything is possible. At least MI has the lake as an insurance policy in the event that there aren't system snows (I think there will be systems, but just saying). We can revisit this in 2 weeks but I think it's likely that most of MI has a white Christmas (1"+ of snow on the ground on Christmas Day). Even here I feel like it's better than climo odds. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted December 11, 2022 Report Share Posted December 11, 2022 8 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said: Im not going to quote any of you, nor will I trash the models. But here on the ground in the real world this December is turning out much as Dec 2021. Mild, big warm blow mid month (tornados 2021) and cooler with click bait for end of the month. Think for my sanity I leave here for awhile. December is beginning to be November and my business revenue proves it. How many years will years will Decembers continue like this? December weather is putting me under! So I did a little research from my business data back to 2011. December generally should occupy 3rd best month of year for our snow and ice management division. 2018 thru 2021 basically only ONE PLOWABLE EVENT! In the data the December has fallen from the clear 3rd best month for snow work and occasionally #1 or #2 month to barely any snow at all! In fact nov, march and even april have produced more work for us than December!!!!! 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 11, 2022 Report Share Posted December 11, 2022 16 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: GFS brings another system through next week that helps fill in areas that miss with the upcoming storm. Second map is total snow leading up to Christmas Eve morning. How cool will it be if 75% or more of the people who post on here have a white Christmas. I only have a 10% chance on any given year. Obviously I'm more optimistic about my chances this year. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 11, 2022 Report Share Posted December 11, 2022 11 minutes ago, Hoosier said: At least MI has the lake as an insurance policy in the event that there aren't system snows (I think there will be systems, but just saying). We can revisit this in 2 weeks but I think it's likely that most of MI has a white Christmas (1"+ of snow on the ground on Christmas Day). Even here I feel like it's better than climo odds. True but you’d be surprised at how many miss out on lake effect in Michigan. Especially the southern half. Extremely localized outside of Lake enhanced events. I have said all year that I expect the majority of my snow to be from the lake. More cold west wind events than just a dry NW flow that doesn’t favor my locale. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Stacsh said: At least it will get cold. Obviously not as cold as the models are showing because they are a joke. But cold nonetheless. And if it gets colder that means chances of snow. I prefer the models to overdue the cold because it means the storm tracks will be completely wrong in the long range. So anything is possible. Yeah. Seeing BN ups my odds exponentially over just "normal" temps which we've had mostly to date. One good thing I do like about the slower slide in temps is that the soil temps have been lowering so when we do see snow, we won't be battling the warm ground we had last winter (entire season except for the CAD Jan period). Trying to keep as positive as possible. Early season cold almost always gets the lake belts something. Much harder here ofc. Not a fan of bitter cold unless I have a decent (4+) cover. Then I will gladly endure. I have pretty much decided I will need to go north during the holidays to see meaningful snow OTG. Would love to be proven wrong. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 47 minutes ago, Stacsh said: True but you’d be surprised at how many miss out on lake effect in Michigan. Especially the southern half. Extremely localized outside of Lake enhanced events. I have said all year that I expect the majority of my snow to be from the lake. More cold west wind events than just a dry NW flow that doesn’t favor my locale. Even that GFS run with the huge synoptic void for our region shows just that coming off the lake. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said: Excited to see reruns showing up of what looks like a "Blitz 2000" scenario. Unless you are referring to The Plains bliz, I haven't seen anything Dec of 2000 like for Iowa east to MI yet. Just a bunch of remembering and talk. Nothing currently flashed even comes close. Did I miss something?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naptownwx Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said: GFS brings another system through next week that helps fill in areas that miss with the upcoming storm. Second map is total snow leading up to Christmas Eve morning. Liking my chances for once 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naptownwx Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Not bad 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: Unless you are referring to The Plains bliz, I haven't seen anything Dec of 2000 like for Iowa east to MI yet. Just a bunch of remembering and talk. Nothing currently flashed even comes close. Did I miss something?? I very likely got my years wrong. Look like we might see a good string of energy pieces roll thru from end of this week throughout Christmas after everyone uo there gets blasted. I thought the cold snowy December here was 2000, but it might've been 2002. Seeing snow in all 50 states at one time would be pretty special right before Christmas. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, Naptownwx said: Not bad What is the mean? Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naptownwx Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: What is the mean? Very impressive chances for a white Christmas! 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: At least MI has the lake as an insurance policy in the event that there aren't system snows (I think there will be systems, but just saying). We can revisit this in 2 weeks but I think it's likely that most of MI has a white Christmas (1"+ of snow on the ground on Christmas Day). Even here I feel like it's better than climo odds. I will be shocked if DTW doesn't have that much. I will be equally shocked if DTW has more than that. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Rare map for mid-Dec Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 What Dec has become: 1 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 22 hours ago, hawkstwelve said: Couple inches a few days before Christmas and a Southern Plains special on Christmas night. I'd take it. Okay, on the Texas/Okla. border what are we looking at Christmas Eve -26th? Rain, ice, snow? (Really important) Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Long way off but that is a major storm in the works toward the end of the 00z Canadian run. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naptownwx Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 This pattern has extreme potential 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 0z Euro 0z GFS The CMC may be doing the best of the bunch. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Windy week ahead and turning cold. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Yesterday was a rather gloomy day with an official H/L of 38/32 there was 0.01” of rain fall, no snow fall and no sunshine. At 70AM there was a trace of snow on the ground. The temperatures held steady overnight with the low here in MBY of 34 and that is the current temperature. For today the average H/L is 37/26 the record high of 60 was shared by 3 years 1899,1949 and 1991. The record low of -5 was set in 1958. The record snow fall amount of 6.0” was set in 1903 and 1972. Today will be another cloudy mid December day is expected. Highs in the mid-30s. Winds will be light and variable this morning but will come from the east at 5 to 10 mph by mid aCloudy skies tonight will set the stage for the rest of the week; we're not going to see much, if any, sunshine. There is a chance of rain mixed with snow during the latter half of the week. Highs will remain in the 30s.fternoon. Looking ahead. After being mostly warmer than normal through the middle of December, a much colder period continues to look more and more likely for the week prior to Christmas. If the current forecast is actually correct, it would be the coldest since the 14.4 degrees in 2000. We are expecting lake effect snow nearly every day from the from Saturday the 17th, through Christmas day. If this indeed happens we should have a White Christmas this year. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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