TacomaWx Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: 28 here. How are you so warm? No way it's phantom snow with cold air already in place North breeze is going…keeps the temp up. Temp would drop pretty quick if the wind dies down. Euro shows a decent even here but it’s still a marginal event overall. The dice have been rolling our way this week so maybe it’ll work out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: In my opinion when we are within 12 hours of a possible event the models are almost useless. Surface observations, Radar trends, Upper air temps, and satellite imagery are what to use now. How do those look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said: Euro trending cooler for next weekend compared to 12z Pretty chilly shot of air with 850mb temps down to -7. Even shows some lowland snow but marginal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 Geeze. almost a week out and still cold. 1 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 Day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 15 minutes ago, MossMan said: 27. Oh and I need more snow. Tell me about it. 27 here too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 Doesn’t look like snow will make it north of Seattle on Sunday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 It got heavier. Basically white out conditions and it is snowing sideways. 21.2 degrees Fahrenheit 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Geeze. almost a week out and still cold. Shows the next 2 days being sub 40 then 2 more next weekend. Only in the low 40s next week too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 8 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: North breeze is going…keeps the temp up. Temp would drop pretty quick if the wind dies down. Euro shows a decent even here but it’s still a marginal event overall. The dice have been rolling our way this week so maybe it’ll work out. Impressive east wind here. Staying right at 38 which isn't bad at all for being this windy. Averaged with the dp it's below freezing. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, Terreboner said: It got heavier. Basically white out conditions and it is snowing sideways. 21.2 degrees Fahrenheit From what I can tell this is above what the ECMWF was showing at this point. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 Not sure anyone posted it but the 00z HRRR looked pretty good. The latest 05z run doesn't go far out enough to capture all the snow but it looks pretty good. You can clearly see the gorge outflow based on the snow vs rain boundaries. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: From what I can tell this is above what the ECMWF was showing at this point. This is insane. About the hardest I've seen in 4 years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 FWIW I ended up with about double of what the ECMWF was showing for moisture here last night. These situations are very difficult for the models. 6 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: FWIW I ended up with about double of what the ECMWF was showing for moisture here last night. These situations are very difficult for the models. Yep Euro looks like the driest by far again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 18 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: In my opinion when we are within 12 hours of a possible event the models are almost useless. Surface observations, Radar trends, Upper air temps, and satellite imagery are what to use now. I always want snow of course but I especially want this event to overperform because the NWS hasn't issued a single notice about this, not even a special weather statement or anything. Mark is calling for basically nothing or up to a half inch. IMO this thing does have the chance to surprise. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said: I always want snow of course but I especially want this event to overperform because the NWS hasn't issued a single notice about this, not even a special weather statement or anything. Mark is calling for basically nothing or up to a half inch. IMO this thing does have the chance to surprise. Mark did say we could get more than that 1/2" if the band of heavier precip is over Portland instead of SW WA, and looks like most models keep Portland as the focus of the precip again. Hoping for a surprise like you said 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 Sorry for delay. Just had a sizeable limb snap off my fir tree loud "thud" on the patio cover and house. It just missed the power mast to the house. Day 9'er 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Doinko said: Mark did say we could get more than that 1/2" if the band of heavier precip is over Portland instead of SW WA, and looks like most models keep Portland as the focus of the precip again. Hoping for a surprise like you said Fair enough. I noticed the 10 PM PDX NWS AFD is a total copy/paste from early this morning. They are literally still talking about the 06z and 12z runs from 12-18 hours ago. Strange. They clearly don't seem concerned about any potential with this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 Day 10 5 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: FWIW I ended up with about double of what the ECMWF was showing for moisture here last night. These situations are very difficult for the models. Yeah it has apparently worn Cliff Mass out. 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 One of the strangest wind maps I've ever seen on the mesonet. Places just a few miles west of here are having N and even NW winds while easterlies are blasting pretty good here. Very isolated east wind field. 1 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 10 That looks kind of nippy. Holy sheit! 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 Little windmaker there on the Euro at Day 9 with some 12/14/2006 similarities. 4 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: Yeah it has apparently worn Cliff Mass out. I'm really liking tomorrow. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepFriedEgg Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 Temp climbing a bit here but DP dropping by the same amount. I'm guessing some downslope off the west hills. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 33F and mostly cloudy. 2 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 10 Arctic air once again just to our north. I like where this ends, let's hope for a nice e setup after Day 10 EPO and PNA will also be negative at that time. Perhaps a period worth watching? 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I'm really liking tomorrow. Dp is 20 here but temp holding in upper 30s. Wind is howling. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 ECMWF has snow over the ocean next Friday. I usually consider that the real clue that it will certainly be cold enough for lowland snow. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: Arctic air once again just to our north. I like where this ends, let's hope for a nice e setup after Day 10 EPO and PNA will also be negative at that time. Perhaps a period worth watching? Late this coming week is worth watching now also. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 Arctic blast signature on that surface high complex at day 10. That zone of lowest pressure is moving south. 3 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 7 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said: Temp climbing a bit here but DP dropping by the same amount. I'm guessing some downslope off the west hills. Definitely downslope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 It’s coming. What snow I have might be around for quite a while! Moon is bright tonight! 3 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Little windmaker there on the Euro at Day 9 with some 12/14/2006 similarities. That is nasty looking. 1 1 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Little windmaker there on the Euro at Day 9 with some 12/14/2006 similarities. Yeah just your typical pedestrian 966mb low. 2 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 I have to tip my hat to the incredible duration of this cold regime. Quite a performance and we have no idea how much further it might go. My firewood supply is already a lot lower than I like at this time. 4 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 Weird day in Southern California today. We were in a dry sector between an AR to our north and an AR to our south. Made it into the low 70s here while Phoenix was rainy and in the low 50s at the same time. That huge low off the coast is causing very strange weather. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: That is nasty looking. Guess I better change the oil in the generator. It has already run about 70 hours just last month. 2 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts