Gradient Keeper Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Pretty dry start to December. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Suppression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: What is lying ahead for us is going to be amazing and quite possibly bitterly cold first low level cold pool/inversion, then a bitter regional blast. WOW Something big is coming friend. 5 1 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: GEM day 10 Isn't this the 50 year old map Dewey posted today? 3 2 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fubario Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 12 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: GEM day 10 K O N A L O W 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 GFS is really trying in the long range, but not sure its going to get there. 2 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: GFS is really trying in the long range, but not sure its going to get there. Ridge support fades it looks like 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Does the CFS ever verify? No especially that far out. I don't understand why people do this to themselves. That's like me showing my work a GFS snowfall map and tell them shut down for at least a week. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Just now, Doinko said: Ridge support fades it looks like EPS was pretty good this morning. Lots of cold members, I just want to see that continue. Good GEFS would be nice as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 00z GEM full run 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Looks like the GFS has started to agree with the 12z ECMWF in showing a chilly / dry pattern coming up. It was inevitable we would end up with a ridge very close and an inversion eventually. Surface progs show a major cold pool developing east of the Cascades so it could get pretty cold. It's beginning to appear it may be difficult to get any snow before the ridge pattern sets up though. Obviously nothing is etched in stone, but the cold and dry pattern seems reasonable given where we've been. Might match up with the cold dry pattern in November pretty well. LRC??? 4 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: Does the CFS ever verify? No especially that far out. I don't understand why people do this to themselves. That's like me showing my work a GFS snowfall map and tell them shut down for at least a week. Yeah the CFS has been trying to torch the crap out of us for the past month... Always just a few days away. 2 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: 00z GEM full run I'm loving the fact the extreme blocking theme continues. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: Looks like the GFS has started to agree with the 12z ECMWF in showing a chilly / dry pattern coming up. It was inevitable we would end up with a ridge very close and an inversion eventually. Surface progs show a major cold pool developing east of the Cascades so it could get pretty cold. It's beginning to appear it may be difficult to get any snow before the ridge pattern sets up though. Obviously nothing is etched in stone, but the cold and dry pattern seems reasonable given where we've been. Might match up with the cold dry pattern in November pretty well. LRC??? My inclination is that GFS OP is too dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Interesting seeing this. Fake cold hanging on down in Oregon as closer to the arctic front, better mixing creates warmer conditions in W. Washington. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Yeah the CFS has been trying to torch the crap out of us for the past month... Always just a few days away. People need to remember when using the longer range CFS it's important to use a composite of many runs or it's just garbage. 1 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 7 minutes ago, Doinko said: Ridge support fades it looks like Just slightly. A trough kicks thing too far east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: My inclination is that GFS OP is too dry. The ECMWF was going that way on its 12z run. I would rather have a dry and cold pattern than the crap we had today for darn sure. Remember we had the long run of dry weather last month too. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 This run doesn't quite get there. Cold dumps mostly east (Maybe some Fraser River action up north?). CFS onto something?! jk 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Interesting seeing this. Fake cold hanging on down in Oregon as closer to the arctic front, better mixing creates warmer conditions in W. Washington. Might be a brief time it's like that, but there's a lot cold before that. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 1060mb! 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: This run doesn't quite get there. Cold dumps mostly east (Maybe some Fraser River action up north?). CFS onto something?! jk It actually gets pretty cold in WA. 2 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: 1060mb! Going to be a cold ride this month I'm thinking. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Wouldn’t it be something if we set up something similar to last years 12/24-1/1 epicness! That would be lovely. Something even more prolonged would also be amazing. 6 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Going to be a cold ride this month I'm thinking. We need more snow on the ground to make any dry period fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Just now, MossMan said: Wouldn’t it be something if we set up something similar to last years 12/24-1/1 epicness! That would be lovely. Something even more prolonged would also be amazing. Would be nice if the Arctic air could actually reach the entire region this time. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: I'd love to see the area get 3-6 inches before going into a dry spell. Looks like a good chance here. 4 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 GEFS not nearly as dry. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Actually, peeks at 1064mb! 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Down to 31 now, definitely on a good pace to eclipse 20 sub-freezing lows again this month. I haven't done an exhaustive search, but January 1949 is the only month I can find at Silver Falls where every low was sub-freezing. January 1957, January 1979, and January 1985 all had 30 days with sub-freezing lows. The 1948-49 season was unbelievable. 152 freezes at Silver Falls. First freeze was 9/25/48 last freeze was 5/30/49. 2 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 8 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said: We need more snow on the ground to make any dry period fun. Anything is more fun than the last couple of days. 1 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Down to 31 now, definitely on a good pace to eclipse 20 sub-freezing lows again this month. I haven't done an exhaustive search, but January 1949 is the only month I can find at Silver Falls where every low was sub-freezing. January 1957, January 1979, and January 1985 all had 30 days with sub-freezing lows. The 1948-49 season was unbelievable. 152 freezes at Silver Falls. First freeze was 9/25/48 last freeze was 5/30/49. 1948-49 and 1949-50 was unquestionably the greatest pair of winters ever witnessed here. 1861-62 was the king, but for a pair that's the gold standard. I think January 1937 did 31 freezing mins here BTW. 4 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: It actually gets pretty cold in WA. Yeah it does, but still more of a glancing blow. The upper level pattern never quite gets there. But the GFS advects a ton of cold air in regardless... 3 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Signature comma look!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Anything is more fun than the last couple of days. Even 55 degree SW flow drizzle? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: 1948-49 and 1949-50 was unquestionably the greatest pair of winters ever witnessed here. 1961-62 was the king, but for a pair that's the gold standard. I think January 1937 did 31 freezing mins here BTW. Silver Falls started keeping records in 1938, but there is a good chance they were sub-freezing every day in January 1937 too. Salem only had one low above freezing that month and it was 36, so certainly reasonable to believe it could have been sub-freezing up here. The park has no data from January 1950 unfortunately, but there were a couple brief warm ups down here that month, so my guess is they had at least one low above freezing. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 hours ago, Olive1010 said: Idk... Euro looked a little better for me but we'll see what happens. 1 Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 38/32 on the day. Currently 38. .02” of drizzle and chunks. .45” for the month. 48.99” for the year. 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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