PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The amount of snow omak has gotten the year so far is amazing.  Farming in the Okanagan highlands next summer is going to be fantastic.  I was supposed to go over with my brother this weekend but work kept me today. 

This is the hardest part of being self employed, keeping a good work ethic and not just leaving whenever you want because you're the boss and you can. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS suite looks better on the 18z vs earlier runs.  The operational is finally catching onto the piggy backing ridge about a week out that makes the whole thing work, and the GEFS 850 mean is colder.

Glad things are finally settled  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

32.9!! Maybe just maybe!!

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

So strange the way saturated air makes you feel colder than lower temps than drier air. It feels way colder with the east wind and rain at 40 degrees than it felt last week at 30 and much lower dew points. Too bad our perceptions aren't what make it snow. 

 

[Terreboner]

Crazy that this low never comes onshore until Sunday into N. California.  The mountains are going to get nailed and some lower elevations may as well.  Plus, we have a chance of a good coating on Sunday before the dry hits here in Central OR.  Life is good and let's keep watching the drought maps for improvement, which I'm sure they are.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

This time it seems the EPS is a lot colder. A lot of members are around the -12 to -18 range for 850mb temps.

No doubt this is pretty real.  Remarkably sustained cold after the next few days.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Glad things are finally settled  

Who said it was settled.  Just pointing out one run.  It is getting to the point where cold is the default so that adds a little bit of confidence.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt this is pretty real.  Remarkably sustained cold after the next few days.

Do you have the ensemble chart for Portland? Maybe the Gorge can help out the Portland and the Willamette Valley

[smerfylicious]

Sounds like the echo of a shotgun over and over outside, the wind is so loud.

[Cloud]

Got a few flakes mixed in at Renton Highlands

[Cascadia_Wx]

41/37 day here. Cold, wet and raw out. Looks like PDX (of course) rose to 42 last night before midnight with a wind shift, so they are still waiting for a sub-40 high. It actually wouldn’t surprise me all that much if they hit 50 there tomorrow, but if they manage to avoid it’s it’s looking like pretty smooth sub-50 sailing until the solstice or so. 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The amount of snow omak has gotten the year so far is amazing.  Farming in the Okanagan highlands next summer is going to be fantastic.  I was supposed to go over with my brother this weekend but work kept me today. 

This is the hardest part of being self employed, keeping a good work ethic and not just leaving whenever you want because you're the boss and you can. 

I'll bet that is a struggle in a case like this.

At any rate I have been in awe of how incredibly cold the Okanagan has been so far this season.  Pretty much off the rails with no end in sight.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Cloud said:

Got a few flakes mixed in at Renton Highlands

Wow... did not expect that there.     Still no precip here since before dawn.   Ended up being a really nice day.

[Winterdog]

2 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

So strange the way saturated air makes you feel colder than lower temps than drier air. It feels way colder with the east wind and rain at 40 degrees than it felt last week at 30 and much lower dew points. Too bad our perceptions aren't what make it snow. 

 

That would be something.  Since our perceptions vary from person to person there would be people on one side of the street walking in snowfall while some on the other side would be sloshing in rain.  It wouldn't be boring anyway.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

41/37 day here. Cold, wet and raw out. Looks like PDX (of course) rose to 42 last night before midnight with a wind shift, so they are still waiting for a sub-40 high. It actually wouldn’t surprise me all that much if they hit 50 there tomorrow, but if they manage to avoid it’s it’s looking like pretty smooth sub-50 sailing until the solstice or so. 

Bummer.  I saw their high was only 38 as of early evening yesterday.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

32.7 big fat flakes mixing in. I'm pretty surprised!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This radar is very accurate showing places getting snow.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Do you have the ensemble chart for Portland? Maybe the Gorge can help out the Portland and the Willamette Valley

Pretty jaw dropping.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Bummer.  I saw their high was only 38 as of early evening yesterday.

I still managed a sub-40 high here. Sometimes it feels like a different world here, even though we really aren’t far away from the airport as the crow flies.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

32.7 big fat flakes mixing in. I'm pretty surprised!

It seems like we have continually been coming in colder than models would lead you to believe.  I was quite surprised by my 40/33 yesterday.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The timing is really looking like we might get into a nice pattern around Christmas.  Hopefully a regional arctic event with snow for Oregon and Washington this time.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It seems like we have continually been coming in colder than models would lead you to believe.  I was quite surprised by my 40/33 yesterday.

I did a 39 33 yesterday and just 37 today.  Only have been 40 degrees for a few hrs since November 26th.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

32.5!!

[snow_wizard]

Already some impressive streaks and totals showing up for my records.

1. 25 consecutive lows below 40

2. 16 consecutive highs below 50

3. 8 total highs of 40 or below

[WildrootParable]

Maddeningly close. 

 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It seems like we have continually been coming in colder than models would lead you to believe.  I was quite surprised by my 40/33 yesterday.

I mentioned on Monday night that the ECMWF showed 43 at SEA every day for the rest of the week.  

Actual highs for the Tues-Fri ended up being 42, 45, 43, 43.

Seems like it was right on target.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z runs drop the hammer tonight? I'm thinking not for another 4-6 runs, but we'll see....

00z GFS in 2 hours 18 minutes
00z ECMWF in 4 hours 28 minutes

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I did a 39 33 yesterday and just 37 today.  Only have been 40 degrees for a few hrs since November 26th.

You do well when offshore flow gets stronger.  It was very weak yesterday and you got a bit warmer in spite of lower 850s yesterday.

[TT-SEA]

My area is getting clipped by the eastern side of that yellow band moving north... finally getting a few sprinkles here but that is it.   East wind is really eating up the precip out here.     Still 43 in North Bend.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I mentioned on Monday night that the ECMWF showed 43 at SEA every day for the rest of the week.  

Actual highs for the Tues-Fri ended up being 42, 45, 43, 43.

Seems like it was right on target.

True.  Sometimes I lose sight of the fact SEA is such a warm spot and look at the ECMWF outputs as being indictive for all of us.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

My area is getting clipped by the eastern side of that yellow band moving north... finally getting a few sprinkles here but that is it.   East wind is really eating up the precip out here.     Still 43 in North Bend.

Weird.  Down to 38 here.  Less is definitely more when talking about east winds.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z runs drop the hammer tonight? I'm thinking not for another 4-6 runs, but we'll see....

00z GFS in 2 hours 18 minutes
00z ECMWF in 4 hours 28 minutes

The GFS finally got on board to some extent on the 18z run.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Shelton down to 36, bremerton airport 37. The cooling is expanding eastward.

[snow_wizard]

SEA just keep reeling off the below normal days.  43/36 for them today.  Very rare to get into this kind of a cold groove.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Shelton down to 36, bremerton airport 37. The cooling is expanding eastward.

I've dropped from 43 to 38 here.  Now 37.9.  The cold air east of the Cascades is really doing its work.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It happened.  32.4 all snow now. So looking at how much precip is still on the way tonight a few inches look very possible. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

True.  Sometimes I lose sight of the fact SEA is such a warm spot and look at the ECMWF outputs as being indictive for all of us.

Indeed,  just looking at the forecast high and low for Seattle can really be misleading. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Indeed,  just looking at the forecast high and low for Seattle can really be misleading. 

Although based on Jim's report... his area and North Bend both had the same high as SEA today.

Yesterday was very different out here... totally world than Seattle.  

[smerfylicious]

Still no precip here but the dew point dropped suddenly to 33. Temp still 43 though. 

[snow maniac]

Check out these temperature differences only a few miles apart.