PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Eventually, one of these ridiculous snow maps is going to work out.  When it happens, everyone will speak to graces of the GFS.  

[snow_wizard]

I would most like about 8 inches of powder and very cold.  Some of these solutions look they could get messy.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

This may be quite useful for some folks as this week wears on. It’ll be a war of attrition.

 

ASMR is a fascinating phenomenon that I've experienced my whole life but never knew what it was until about 2011 or so.

[Phishy Wx]

anybody checked out what the NBM is saying yet.  does it go out far enough?  I don't know or have access

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yeah I need sleep more than ever but I can’t until the Euro is done. 

Then I think... will I even remember tonight's 00Z ECMWF on Thursday?    Probably not but still have to see it. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Back here in the zen present moment. Clouds kind of melting away out there tonight. Always like when that happens when there’s a cold airmass overhead. Down to 39 now.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

10 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEFS is colder yet with a major low level blast. That's getting very cold combined with east winds it would be bitter.

Crazy that the operational is the single warmest member for a lot of the run.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

anybody checked out what the NBM is saying yet.  does it go out far enough?  I don't know or have access

Very snowy... which makes sense since the 12Z ECMWF was very snowy and of course the 00Z GFS.

[Nov1985]

3 minutes ago, clipper_range said:

Crippling.

It's going to feel cold Sunday to Wednesday, but I don't think we have to worry about "too much" snow. Certainly not roof-collapsing amounts of snow with this setup. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Back here in the zen present moment. Clouds kind of melting away out there tonight. Always like when that happens when there’s a cold airmass overhead. Down to 39 now.

The colder/drier air is moving down through Central WA now.  Should get there fairly soon.

[Gummy]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Very snowy... which makes sense since the 12Z ECMWF was very snowy and of course the 00Z GFS.

 

What does it show for temps at Boeing Field, if you don't mind posting.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Nov1985 said:

It's going to feel cold Sunday to Wednesday, but I don't think we have to worry about "too much" snow. Certainly not roof-collapsing amounts of snow with this setup. 

I wouldn't rule anything out at this point.

[Dave]

Who's coming with me?

https://indianapolis.craigslist.org/reb/d/indianapolis-off-market-3bed-2bath-in/7567489461.html

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Gummy said:

What does it show for temps at Boeing Field, if you don't mind posting.

 

 

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Very snowy... which makes sense since the 12Z ECMWF was very snowy and of course the 00Z GFS.

what about temps?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

8 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEFS for The Dalles is incredibly frigid!

Interesting that the ensemble mean is so much colder than the operational in the long run

 

 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

4 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Yay for living 10 miles south of Salem!

In my experience, the Clackamas county line is the dividing line for gorge outflow influence when it comes to snowfall. South of it and you get the shaft. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Dave said:

Who's coming with me?

https://indianapolis.craigslist.org/reb/d/indianapolis-off-market-3bed-2bath-in/7567489461.html

Let's get in the car! We can get jobs at IUPUI.

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

 

KSFF?

[Nov1985]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I wouldn't rule anything out at this point.

More likely than the 00z GFS, the very dry air will be crippling if you don't have enough hand lotion. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

I’m a big fan of the 00z GFS and its ensembles well into the long range. A lot better in many ways than the 12z Euro/EPS suite earlier today.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

In my experience, the Clackamas county line is the dividing line for gorge outflow influence when it comes to snowfall. South of it and you get the shaft. 

If he’s ten miles south of Salem it’s possible he has some elevation though. There’s some hilly country between Salem and the Santiam River.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

KSFF?

 

[Blizzard777]

44/34 and currently 34* with ice on the top of my mailbox ! 
Meanwhile as we hold onto hope with enticing pepto maps Prescott is getting a refresher of the white stuff this evening (28*).  They did get up to 37 earlier today. 
 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

49 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

By Christmas Day... 

When you have deep arctic air near or entrenched in the area crazy shittt like this is possible.  A bunch of this snow isn't marginal either, should be plenty of cold air to work with.  Reminds me of 1996 only this would be bigger and further south. It won't happen but it is possible I guess if everything went just right.  There was 3 feet on the ground here 3 years ago and to think something like that is on the table again is just nuts.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

If he’s ten miles south of Salem it’s possible he has some elevation though. There’s some hilly country between Salem and the Santiam River.

Jesse's trips to the Ankeny Hill winery have some wild nights.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I wouldn't rule anything out at this point.

KSEA is not going to score 30–40" by Christmas and I am quite willing to rule that out.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

KSEA is not going to score 30–40" by Christmas and I am quite willing to rule that out.

I think it is more realistic than negative readings in Seattle.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, Dave said:

Who's coming with me?

https://indianapolis.craigslist.org/reb/d/indianapolis-off-market-3bed-2bath-in/7567489461.html

For Indiana, South Bend is a much better city. Lake effect snow zone.

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

looks about right

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

When you have deep arctic air near or entrenched in the area crazy shittt like this is possible.  A bunch of this snow isn't marginal either, should be plenty of cold air to work with.  Reminds me of 1996 only this would be bigger and further south. It won't happen but it is possible I guess if everything went just right.  There was 3 feet on the ground here 3 years ago and to think something like that is on the table again is just nuts.

Yeah... whenever I think those maps are impossible I also think it has happened before and will happen again.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I think it is more realistic than negative readings in Seattle.

True that.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

For Indiana, South Bend is a much better city. Lake effect snow zone.

Touchdown Jesus close by too.

[Cold Snap]

Already down to 34. Probably going to score a freeze tonight as things are clearing at my place. Would be number 25 of the winter so far for my location.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... whenever I think those maps are impossible I also think it has happened before and will happen again.

The odds are so small that at this stage they can safely be disregarded.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The odds are so small that at this stage they can safely be disregarded.

Odds are not zero though.

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z ECMWF Day 1

Oh god, here we go.

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

For Indiana, South Bend is a much better city. Lake effect snow zone.

Lake effect yes, but that town is a dump outside of the ND campus, IMO

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Odds are not zero though.

Close enough that at this stage zero is a good approximation.