PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Requiem]

Would definitely be nice to see the EURO throw Oregonians a bone. After more than a few years of Washington-centric snow events something like February 2014 would be welcome. 

[Doinko]

Does anyone have the 500mb anomaly maps for the ICON? Tropical tidbits doesn't have those maps and I was wondering how they looked

[yellowstone]

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

By Christmas Day... 

Ok, I’m sorry, I love the Oregon posters but LOCK. IT. IN.  

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Are there more model runs to analyze tomorrow or is it a day off? 

What a week this going to be!

I think we should do a group activity tomorrow. Maybe lazer tag or Wild Waves. I’d say naked badminton but that seems more like a third date kind of thing.

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

JMA  is kool

Hey Japan is the best

Ever watch Kamen rider or Super Sentai  

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Would definitely be nice to see the EURO throw Oregonians a bone. After more than a few years of Washington-centric snow events something like February 2014 would be welcome. 

It’s all clown range at this point. What matters is that this is a situation fraught with possibility.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

I think we should do a group activity tomorrow. Maybe lazer tag or Wild Waves. I’d say naked badminton but that seems more like a third date kind of thing.

A shot for every inch of snow GFS has.

[Kolk1604]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gfs ensembles still not really on board at all. 

It needs to increase its membership from 30 to 50

[Poulsbo Snowman]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I think we should do a group activity tomorrow. Maybe lazer tag or Wild Waves. I’d say naked badminton but that seems more like a third date kind of thing.

Promise nobody wants to see me naked.  Not at my age or current weight. 

[Cloud]

The one consistent theme I’ve seen from the GFS since last month is it always wants to bury the Seattle area. I think it’s safe to assume why, with the Olympics directly to the west of the city and the Cascades to the east, this area gets blended in. The reality doesn’t always work in the favor of the model’s predictions. With numerous upgrades its done, just seems to be getting worse. 

[Slushy Inch]

Good GEFS shift for next week. Much better block.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Does anyone have the 500mb anomaly maps for the ICON? Tropical tidbits doesn't have those maps and I was wondering how they looked

Great looking pattern and cold on ICON... but oddly very dry.  

[BLI snowman]

00z UKMET looks like a compromise between the GEM and Euro. Sends the mother lode a lot further west but appears to be pivoting right over us through the end.

 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Great looking pattern and cold on ICON... but oddly very dry.  

Thanks. That would be a great blast

[fubario]

Looking at these snow maps I want to say "Yeah...no".  But, the last time I said that was last Thursday when my buddy said, "Watch. Baker Mayfield is going to drive the rams 98 yards for a TD and win this game." 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Great looking pattern and cold on ICON... but oddly very dry.  

Snowfall map is only about 1000x more believable than the ones showing Seattle getting 40".

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The one consistent theme I’ve seen from the GFS since last month is it always wants to bury the Seattle area. I think it’s safe to assume why, with the Olympics directly to the west of the city and the Cascades to the east, this area gets blended in. The reality doesn’t always work in the model’s predictions. With numerous upgrades its done, just seems to be getting worse. 

You can look at wind direction, it is clearly staying offshore during the snow, which does allow for snow. It is not phantom snow, it's just a nutty fantasy setup.

[Nov1985]

7 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Would definitely be nice to see the EURO throw Oregonians a bone. After more than a few years of Washington-centric snow events something like February 2014 would be welcome. 

Euro already threw them a bone and EPS has been consistent. We won't see 40" of snow in Seattle, and Spokane won't smash its low temp record. But a nice round of moderate cold and snow will sink well into Oregon. It's all right there in ECMWF and EPS runs for 3 days now... 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

00z UKMET looks like a compromise between the GEM and Euro. Sends the mother lode a lot further west but appears to be pivoting right over us through the end.

 

I can live with that solution. 

[lowlandsnow]

00z GEFS is colder

[TT-SEA]

I was up at 5 a.m. looking at the 06Z GFS... a run which seems pretty irrelevant right now.    I would like to sleep now but just have to wait for the ECMWF.   

[lowlandsnow]

Just now, lowlandsnow said:

00z GEFS is colder

Low teens for Portland

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

A shot for every inch of snow GFS has.

Tiger can be the DD!

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

00z UKMET looks like a compromise between the GEM and Euro. Sends the mother lode a lot further west but appears to be pivoting right over us through the end.

 

This is only 6 days out. Almost 3’ of snow in one day for the lucky winner.
 

 

 

 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Tiger can be the DD!

What's the DD?

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I can live with that solution. 

Pretty close to ideal. Best possible setup for a snowy arctic front to swing through and drop south with the trough axis.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow per the 00Z GEFS through next Thursday... do the GEFS members have a different snow formula than the operational run?    I would think even a couple GFS-like members would skew this way high.

[Snownerd3000]

26 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’m actually more worried for folks in the PS than anything else. Could be a dangerous situation up there and they’ll need our thoughts, prayers and financial contributions.

Please open up your lock boxes for us 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

This is only 6 days out. Almost 3’ of snow in one day for the lucky winner.
 

 

 

 

Something like that happened in Mt Vernon a few years ago... absolutely buried there with very little snow elsewhere.    I am sure that would shift a few miles north and park over Randy's house! 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS is colder yet with a major low level blast. That's getting very cold combined with east winds it would be bitter.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow per the 00Z GEFS through next Thursday... do the GEFS members have a different snow formula than the operational run?    I would think even a couple GFS-like members would skew this way high.

The 500mb heights in GEFS are also very different, so I'm not surprised.

[bainbridgekid]

3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

This is only 6 days out. Almost 3’ of snow in one day for the lucky winner.
 

 

 

 

February 2011 redux but one county further South.

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was up at 5 a.m. looking at the 06Z GFS... a run which seems pretty irrelevant right now.    I would like to sleep now but just have to wait for the ECMWF.   

Yeah I need sleep more than ever but I can’t until the Euro is done. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Tiger can be the DD!

I miss driving...

[Guest administrator]

4 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

This is only 6 days out. Almost 3’ of snow in one day for the lucky winner.
 

 

 

 

My house is in the coral!

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Yeah I need sleep more than ever but I can’t until the Euro is done. 

This may be quite useful for some folks as this week wears on. It’ll be a war of attrition.

 

[snow_wizard]

20 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Does anyone have the 500mb anomaly maps for the ICON? Tropical tidbits doesn't have those maps and I was wondering how they looked

Pretty nice.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS for The Dalles is incredibly frigid!

[FrozenBites]

41 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

By Christmas Day... 

Crippling.

[Mid Valley Duck]

45 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Shades of February 2021. We're very lucky to have the Gorge as a factor. Hopefully the lows trend south for those sorely in need of some winter weather S of Salem.

Yay for living 10 miles south of Salem!