Deweydog Posted June 27, 2017 Report Share Posted June 27, 2017 We should make a summer forecast thread before July 5th! To be fair, I will also say I have noticed a lot of critiquing of Phil's warm season forecast, but no one else has really gone out on a limb. Meanwhile, very nice day.Cool summer. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 27, 2017 Report Share Posted June 27, 2017 Cool summer.Not off to the best start for that one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 27, 2017 Report Share Posted June 27, 2017 Let's do it. Same locations as last year?Sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 27, 2017 Report Share Posted June 27, 2017 Not off to the best start for that one.Nope. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 27, 2017 Report Share Posted June 27, 2017 Nope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 27, 2017 Report Share Posted June 27, 2017 That was our little forecast contest, which was subseasonal, at my direct request. Remember? I thought I could throw you off your game by diving into the subseasonal realm, but so I've performed just as terribly as you on those specifics. This is separate from the analog-based seasonal predictions I've been making since March, which you've been referring to here.Everything you've said, analog-based or not, was pointing to a cool/troughy first half of summer. You were very consistent in that respect. Now you can argue that June is only a part of that, and that's fair (though you chose to make monthly forecasts, that wasn't my idea), but so far we've seen a very warm second half of May and a warm June. So whether you're looking at MJJ, June, or just the general summer season, it's been warm so far. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 27, 2017 Report Share Posted June 27, 2017 Everything you've said, analog-based or not, was pointing to a cool/troughy first half of summer. You were very consistent in that respect. Now you can argue that June is only a part of that, and that's fair (though you chose to make monthly forecasts, that wasn't my idea), but so far we've seen a very warm second half of May and a warm June. So whether you're looking at MJJ, June, or just the general summer season, it's been warm so far. The pattern change to a warmer and more ridgy regime came around May 18th. Since that time... SEA has been below normal on only 11 out of 40 days. In other words... its been at or above normal almost 75% of the time. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 27, 2017 Report Share Posted June 27, 2017 Yikes. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/3C556EFB-EAC8-495E-B25E-25B3446A3F4A_zpsjjqaajiu.jpg Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 27, 2017 Report Share Posted June 27, 2017 Historically speaking, in the weeks following the bottoming-out of the AAM integral, ridging is favored over the GOA/Aleutians, and troughing is favored over the Intermountain West. Obviously, it remains to be seen how long this -AAM period lasts, but it does look to continue for at least another two weeks. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 27, 2017 Report Share Posted June 27, 2017 Yikes.. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/3C556EFB-EAC8-495E-B25E-25B3446A3F4A_zpsjjqaajiu.jpg Like 1994. That extreme AAM plunge in late June 1994 was followed by 3 months of gorgeous weather here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 27, 2017 Report Share Posted June 27, 2017 Like 1994. That extreme AAM plunge in late June 1994 was followed by 3 months of gorgeous weather here.We had a moderate/strong El Niño tropical circulation that year. Statistically speaking, it's highly unlikely we follow 1994. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 27, 2017 Report Share Posted June 27, 2017 We had a moderate/strong El Niño tropical circulation that year. Statistically speaking, it's highly unlikely we follow 1994. Whew! So a continuation of deep troughing and very cold weather for the rest of the summer? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 27, 2017 Report Share Posted June 27, 2017 Everything you've said, analog-based or not, was pointing to a cool/troughy first half of summer. You were very consistent in that respect. Now you can argue that June is only a part of that, and that's fair (though you chose to make monthly forecasts, that wasn't my idea), but so far we've seen a very warm second half of May and a warm June. So whether you're looking at MJJ, June, or just the general summer season, it's been warm so far.I'm betting the 6/1-7/15 period averages troughy @ 500mb. At least relative to the global geopotential height anomaly average. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 27, 2017 Report Share Posted June 27, 2017 Whew! So a continuation of deep troughing and very cold weather for the rest of the summer?Careful with that hyperbole. You might karmically manifest it. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 27, 2017 Report Share Posted June 27, 2017 Today is so gorgeous. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 27, 2017 Report Share Posted June 27, 2017 Today is so gorgeous. Yes it is. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 27, 2017 Report Share Posted June 27, 2017 We should make a summer forecast thread before July 5th! To be fair, I will also say I have noticed a lot of critiquing of Phil's warm season forecast, but no one else has really gone out on a limb.Meanwhile, very nice day.Forecast contest is up for anyone willing to ante up. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 I'm betting the 6/1-7/15 period averages troughy @ 500mb. At least relative to the global geopotential height anomaly average.I just think you need to make that a little more clear in the future. It's evident that most people here interpreted your posts as pointing to a cooler than average start to summer at the surface. I guess that's not what you meant but even if it turns cooler in the week or so it will go down as a warmer that average start to summer. Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 I just think you need to make that a little more clear in the future. It's evident that most people here interpreted your posts as pointing to a cooler than average start to summer at the surface. I guess that's not what you meant but even if it turns cooler in the week or so it will go down as a warmer that average start to summer.I mean, he literally said he expected a cooler than normal June in the PNW. I think he was pretty clear about what he was predicting. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 I mean, he literally said he expected a cooler than normal June in the PNW. I think he was pretty clear about what he was predicting. Yeah, it was pretty clear cut. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 I mean, he literally said he expected a cooler than normal June in the PNW. I think he was pretty clear about what he was predicting. At 850mb. I made clear that I wasn't making specific surface temperature predictions after last summer's cold 850mb/warm surface debacle. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 hey phil are we going to have another cold/snowy winter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 hey phil are we going to have another cold/snowy winter?I'm leaning towards a cold start/warm finish sort of progression, but I reserve the right to change my mind. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 00Z GFS is a little more robust with the trough on the 3rd and 4th... but its still shows lots of sun and around normal temps on the 4th. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 00Z GFS is a little more robust with the trough on the 3rd and 4th... but its still shows lots of sun and around normal temps on the 4th. I have a feeling of impending doom... 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 4-corners high making an appearance next week: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062800/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_38.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 I have a feeling of impending doom... Rain looks very unlikely... clouds and temps are really the only question. Right now the GFS and ECMWF show it being a sunny day and right around normal... so the models are on your side. One week to go! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 At 850mb. I made clear that I wasn't making specific surface temperature predictions after last summer's cold 850mb/warm surface debacle. There has been no such disconnect this month. Warm at 850 mb, warm at the surface. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 4-corners high making an appearance next week: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062800/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_38.pngBaffin Bay vortex/+NAO statistically favors a western ridge during the middle of summer, yet the -AAM/Eurasian high favors just the opposite. Going to be a battle. It's NPAC vs NAO, basically. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 There has been no such disconnect this month. Warm at 850 mb, warm at the surface. compday.lQcSp_okeP.gifThe first half of summer isn't over yet. What's your point? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 00z GFS is scary looking. Reminds me of June/July 2012. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 00Z ECMWF coming in now shows a gorgeous Canada Day on Saturday... mid-70s and mostly sunny all the way up the Island. That'd be nice; I'm planning on sticking around to watch the celebrations in Victoria now, but it would give us a little more buffer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 That'd be nice; I'm planning on sticking around to watch the celebrations in Victoria now, but it would give us a little more buffer. Saturday looks great on the 00Z GFS as well. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062800/gfs_T2ma_nwus_17.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062800/gfs_cfractot_nwus_17.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 Saturday looks great on the 00Z GFS as well. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062800/gfs_T2ma_nwus_17.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017062800/gfs_cfractot_nwus_17.png Looks like one of those quirky patterns we sometimes get where bursts of westerly winds result in down sloping, bringing warmer temperatures to the surface. Hopefully it holds down to Victoria Harbor where the celebrations will be, should be warm in this area regardless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 GFS shows an impressive heat ridge building into the western US later next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 GFS shows an impressive heat ridge building into the western US later next week.Good. It's been an annoyingly cool early summer so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 Ugh, 2 more weeks of denial. #4cornershigh Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 GFS has the 4th a tad coolish but overall a decent day, which is the norm here. OF course July 5th on starts to look amazing. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 Ensembles definitely backing the big ridge idea. Wonder when Phill will finally say "Uncle". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 28, 2017 Report Share Posted June 28, 2017 hot summers are the new norm... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.