stuffradio Posted August 11, 2017 Report Share Posted August 11, 2017 Real birthday or your Canadian birthday?Real birthday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 11, 2017 Report Share Posted August 11, 2017 That depends on how you define summer I guess, which is pretty subjective. Simply defining it as having a reasonable chance of sunny/warm days at times, then sure. There are a lot of other climatological aspects that put September solidly into fall, though. As I'm sure you are aware. I wonder how deep into March a relatively high % chance of having average winter like weather (rain and 40s) extends? Just looking at 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 11, 2017 Report Share Posted August 11, 2017 Real birthday.Happy birthday! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted August 11, 2017 Report Share Posted August 11, 2017 Happy birthday!It is a happy birthday, because that's the last day we lose light! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 11, 2017 Report Share Posted August 11, 2017 It is a happy birthday, because that's the last day we lose light!Sun angles don't become an issue again until Memorial Day, however. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 11, 2017 Report Share Posted August 11, 2017 You seem pretty ready for fall to arrive too...lots of posts about the change to cooler, fall like weather from you on the mountain west forum the last few days.Sure. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted August 11, 2017 Report Share Posted August 11, 2017 Sun angles don't become an issue again until Memorial Day, however.Sun angles are always an issue.#iceagenowamIdoingthisright? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 Should be PDX's last 85+ day of the year. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 I would say our summers are pretty reliable until about September 25th. Using NOWData calendar day summaries, our probability of seeing 80 degrees is at summer levels (32%) as late as 9/23. Only three days in June have a higher 80 degree probability @ PDX.Yeah, I would put the cutoff around the 15th to 25th period. That last week or so of September is noticeably different climo wise, as far as frost/storm potential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 Just looking at Interesting. Thanks for the info. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 Eeked out an 82 for a high today. Still hazy, but getting better. Once these skies clear out, the overnight temps should reflect that change to a clearer atmosphere and cool off more. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 Yeah, I would put the cutoff around the 15th to 25th period. That last week or so of September is noticeably different climo wise, as far as frost/storm potential. That sounds about right. There's a noticeable dip around mid-month in 80 degree frequency, followed by a rebound around the 20th-23rd or so. For some reason, that little stretch right around the equinox is favored for warmth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 That sounds about right. There's a noticeable dip around mid-month in 80 degree frequency, followed by a rebound around the 20th-23rd or so. For some reason, that little stretch right around the equinox is favored for warmth.Probably just noise. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 Currently 85F with a 67F dew point. Nice day today! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 Currently 85F with a 67F dew point. Nice day today! Wow, that's a high dewpoint for this region. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 Probably just noise. I think there's more to it than that. Something about the longwave pattern preferentially setting up a ridge around the 20th-24th of the month over the preceding (and following) several days, given the typical hemispheric forcings present during the boreal transition to fall. PDX has hit 85 degrees just 5 times on 9/19...but 16 times on both 9/21 and 9/22. 90 degree readings have occurred just two times each on the 18th and 19th...but 9 times on the 22nd. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 It's interesting, PDX has reached 90 degrees more often on September 22nd (9 times out of 76 years) than on August 22nd (7 times). Go figure.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 Currently 85F with a 67F dew point. Nice day today!Clinton was 92F with a 23F dew point and Ashcroft was 103F with a 36F dew point. Now that is dry. Not good fire fighting weather in the interior today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 During the Medieval warm period would this summer be considered warm across the PNW *if we had weather sensors back then* or would this actually be the norm run of the mill summer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 During the Medieval warm period would this summer be considered warm across the PNW *if we had weather sensors back then* or would this actually be the norm run of the mill summer?June and July were just a little above normal. Except for this recent 10-day stretch... this has been a run of the mill summer even for this era. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 My sons drove us west through the night. Western Montana... northern Idaho... Couer d'Alene and Spokane are absolutely choking in smoke this morning. Hard to breathe even in the car. Far cry from the deep greens and blue of Minnesota yesterday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 And now rain near Ritzville. Ugly mix of thick mid level clouds, smoke, and haze with big fat rain drops falling. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 And now rain near Ritzville. Ugly mix of thick mid level clouds, smoke, and haze with big fat rain drops falling.Welcome back!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 Joe Bastardi released new thoughts today on winter, and he's going for 133% above normal snow for most of OR, WA and SW BC with normal temps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 It's interesting, PDX has reached 90 degrees more often on September 22nd (9 times out of 76 years) than on August 22nd (7 times). Go figure..Around what time does PDX see the biggest drop in its % of days at or above 90? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 Joe Bastardi released new thoughts today on winter, and he's going for 133% above normal snow for most of OR, WA and SW BC with normal temps. Lets hope he's wrong on the normal temps part. I can finally see blue sky here and even the moon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 Lets hope he's wrong on the normal temps part. I can finally see blue sky here and even the moon. Why's that? Our biggest snow usually comes from temps around -2 to 1C. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 During the Medieval warm period would this summer be considered warm across the PNW *if we had weather sensors back then* or would this actually be the norm run of the mill summer?August would still have been warmer than average, even during the MWP. June/July would probably have been cooler than average, at least on the west-side. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 August would still have been warmer than average, even during the MWP. June/July would probably have been cooler than average, at least on the west-side.August isn't over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 June and July were just a little above normal. Except for this recent 10-day stretch... this has been a run of the mill summer even for this era.80+, 85+, 90+ days are all running well above normal. It's been a warmer than normal summer for the PNW. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 Lets hope he's wrong on the normal temps part. I can finally see blue sky here and even the moon.Agreed. Keep in mind last winter he was calling for a western blowtorch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 Best air quality in over a week here in Victoria and the first time I've been able to see across the Juan de Fuca since early last week. Looking forward to seeing some actual rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 Everything seems to be coming in a little further east than initially modeled; it could mean the front tonight comes further ashore before breaking apart than initially modeled. Convective rains that were yesterday forecast to be over the Puget Sound this morning are instead running along the east side of the Cascades. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 Joe Bastardi released new thoughts today on winter, and he's going for 133% above normal snow for most of OR, WA and SW BC with normal temps. I don't think he's ever made a winter forecast that wasn't for a cold and snowy East. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 I don't think he's ever made a winter forecast that wasn't for a cold and snowy East. Only if there's a strong Nina. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 Even during (normal) temps a few days of moderate cold can still happen. I hope it's - neutral. Neutral but leaning more negative in departures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 Even during (normal) temps a few days of moderate cold can still happen. I hope it's - neutral. Neutral but leaning more negative in departures.Extreme cold can happen during a normal overall winter, as long as there is warmth to offset it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 Air quality is pretty good here at home... just a little white haze with sunny skies and a pleasant 75. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 I don't think he's ever made a winter forecast that wasn't for a cold and snowy East.His last forecast for a warm east coast winter was exactly one decade ago, in 2007/08. So yeah. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 One thing is almost for certain. There will be much less in the way of low frequency/background ENSO forcing this winter, and much more in the way of intraseasonal/MJO type forcing. So there will be pattern variability. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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