GobBluth Posted August 29, 2017 Report Share Posted August 29, 2017 crazy uncle 18z showing a shorter hot spell 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 29, 2017 Report Share Posted August 29, 2017 12Z GFS has 27.5C 850's and 595dm heights on Saturday. Would definitely hit 100+ if that column verified. If, that is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 29, 2017 Report Share Posted August 29, 2017 NWS has 95-95-96-97 for Saturday - Tuesday. Would be incredible to see that. The PDX record for consecutive 95 degree days in September is just 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 29, 2017 Report Share Posted August 29, 2017 NWS has 95-95-96-97 for Saturday - Tuesday. Would be incredible to see that. The PDX record for consecutive 95 degree days in September is just 2.Really tough call with increasing nighttime inversions, smoke and what at this point doesn't appear to be a particularly strong thermal trough. 91 to 101 seems like a good call Friday through Tuesday. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 29, 2017 Report Share Posted August 29, 2017 Really tough call with increasing nighttime inversions, smoke and what at this point doesn't appear to be a particularly strong thermal trough. 91 to 101 seems like a good call Friday through Tuesday. This reminds of September 2011. We busted on every forecast above 93 during that stretch, and there were several. IIRC a couple days were supposed to see 95-96 with an outside chance of upper 90's...never happened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 29, 2017 Report Share Posted August 29, 2017 This reminds of September 2011. We busted on every forecast above 93 during that stretch, and there were several. IIRC a couple days were supposed to see 95-96 with an outside chance of upper 90's...never happened.Definitely. Sprawling ridge with some of the most impressive, persistent 850mb temps for September but didn't translate as well at the surface. At the moment this one looks more robust but yeah... Helps too that it's about a week ahead of that one. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 29, 2017 Report Share Posted August 29, 2017 Definitely. Sprawling ridge with some of the most impressive, persistent 850mb temps for September but didn't translate as well at the surface. At the moment this one looks more robust but yeah... Helps too that it's about a week ahead of that one.Less is more in September. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 29, 2017 Report Share Posted August 29, 2017 Less is more in September.More or less. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 29, 2017 Report Share Posted August 29, 2017 Definitely. Sprawling ridge with some of the most impressive, persistent 850mb temps for September but didn't translate as well at the surface. At the moment this one looks more robust but yeah... Helps too that it's about a week ahead of that one. The historical nature of that ridge was reflected much better at higher elevations and in places east of the Cascades. YKM had 7 straight record highs between the 7th - 13th. G Camp was almost as warm as PDX at 87/62. Real shame that PDX couldn't do better than 93 in that one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 29, 2017 Report Share Posted August 29, 2017 9/11/2011 is a pretty textbook example of how to waste 850's of 24C in September. No coherent amplification of the ridge, heights at only 584dm, and dying offshore flow aloft by the afternoon. Ended up at 93 @ PDX after talk of possibly going as high as 98 on that day several days prior. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 9/11/2011 is a pretty textbook example of how to waste 850's of 24C in September. No coherent amplification of the ridge, heights at only 584dm, and dying offshore flow aloft by the afternoon. Ended up at 93 @ PDX after talk of possibly going as high as 98 on that day several days prior.Those 850s were still effective at irritating certain members of this forum, though. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 Definitely holding things back a bit for us today as well, it appears. Looks like it. 88 for a max so far with 850's of ~22C. Should have been over 90. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 Those 850s were still effective at irritating certain members of this forum, though. The possibilities for irritation are endless! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 Would be pretty funny if tomorrow ends up sub-75. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 Drunk uncle, 538 thickness in clown range Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 Would be pretty funny if tomorrow ends up sub-75. Unlikely. Would be totally understandable from a climo perspective though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 Am wondering if cooler-than-forecast low-level temps yesterday and today were due more to a bit of inversion than to the smoke. My location in the hills at 98 / 64 / 90 was +2 / +12 / +3 compared to EUG even though we had the same smoke cover. Usually in the summer I run a few degrees cooler than EUG in the daytime and only a few degrees warmer at night -- the +12 is pretty unusual. That's interesting. I wasn't considering that. Smoke seems like an easy scapegoat when visibility is 5 miles and the maximums are lower than forecast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 New fires popping up around central OR. Looks like an arsonist who has a prior history in the area is doing this. Fits his profile and slash piles were set on fire. Santiam Pass is closed, Lava Butte has a couple fires, another near Gilchrist and the 97 at the CA border is closed due to another fire. Here in Bend the visibility is less than a mile. Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 Looks like it. 88 for a max so far with 850's of ~22C. Should have been over 90.Pacific Northwest thermal profiles must be drastically different than most locations east of the Rockies. We'd easily be over 100*F with 850mb temperatures at 22C. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 All these analogs for the fall and early winter are exciting.It seems every year they are always *exciting*. Nothing new here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 Pacific Northwest thermal profiles must be drastically different than most locations east of the Rockies. We'd easily be over 100*F with 850mb temperatures at 22C. Our low level situation is more fickle due to that giant ocean to our west. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 Is it even possible to have two snowy winters in a row? Time will tell! I don't see why it's not possible to have two similarly snowy winters in a row. We have long multi-year stretches of mild winters. But how likely is it...well I'm not about to delve into the probabilities and statistics of it but I think you know the answer to that one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 Unlikely. Would be totally understandable from a climo perspective though.76. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 76. I'd reference the acronym of my forecasting strategy, but the mods deleted that post last time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 I'd reference the acronym of my forecasting strategy, but the mods deleted that post last time.Squares. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 Squares. Twits. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 It seems every year they are always *exciting*. Nothing new here.True. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 The 0z looks a little toasty next week, a persistent heat-looking pattern: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 Very fortunate that Harvey trended a little east. Beaumont, TX (about 80 mi east of Houston) is seeing - and has been all day - torrential downpours that would have made the situation in Houston that much more devastating. As it is, Beaumont is still seeing terrible flooding from the heaviest sustained rains of the entire event. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 Very fortunate that Harvey trended a little east. Beaumont, TX (about 80 mi east of Houston) is seeing - and has been all day - torrential downpours that would have made the situation in Houston that much more devastating. As it is, Beaumont is still seeing terrible flooding from the heaviest sustained rains of the entire event.I was thinking that too. Pretty arbitrary shift and the 20 or so inches Beaumont has seen today could have fallen there. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 Very fortunate that Harvey trended a little east. Beaumont, TX (about 80 mi east of Houston) is seeing - and has been all day - torrential downpours that would have made the situation in Houston that much more devastating. As it is, Beaumont is still seeing terrible flooding from the heaviest sustained rains of the entire event.We might have major hurricane Irma to deal with in a few weeks, as well. If it doesn't recurve, it's probably going to make landfall as a monster hurricane given very favorable upper level conditions across the SW Atlantic for the foreseeable future. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 I think it's safe to say 500mb heights will be above average this weekend and into next week. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 89,90,89 here the past 3 days. Should seal the deal on a record warm August. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 Some relief finally in sight at hour 276: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 Some relief finally in sight at hour 276: High dew points!!! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 89,90,89 here the past 3 days. Should seal the deal on a record warm August. YYJ is still running 0.1C behind last year, not sure what the YYJ record is but it probably won't be set this year. Today was warm but the next 2 days will be closer to average. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 3.87 inches in the last hour in Beaumont. Bat crazy. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 3.87 inches in the last hour in Beaumont. Bat s**t crazy. Up to 2' of rain on the day. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 Up to 2' of rain on the day.Bad deal for a city that probably owns no plows. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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