PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Cloud]

Jaya’s tweet ending with a “watch out” and urging people to stay home is a bit ominous. I would heed this advice. Looks to be a pretty large snowstorm C.Sound-north 

[Weiner Warrior]

32 degrees and light snow. Bellevue 500'

[gusky]

36 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

You mind posting Paine Field?

IDK if anyone's posted this since, so apologies if this already has.

[Sam]

Light precip starting here on East Hill. Small flakes. Is it happening?

[Randyc321]

13 minutes ago, HoodCanalBridge said:

Light, steady snow shower  just started here.  Tiny little flakes!

Steady small flakes here on the Island again now too.  Temp back down to 31 again after a high of 33.

[awright-31]

4 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Yeah...trajectory of low has been shifting south slowly.  To my extremely untrained eye, the Pierce/Thurston folks are probably going to overachieve.

Don't get me excited. I'm already in full blown weenie mode. There's no going back now.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

As exciting as JayA's faith in a GFS-esque scenario is, and as much as I would like to see a big dump of snow, I will feel a lot more optimistic about such a thing actually happening if the 18Z Euro climbs on board.

Even if it doesn't happen, it's still a decent snowfall.

[MikeInEverett]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Temp never actually went above freezing today despite really threatening to. This airmass has held its ground. The Euro is far too warm this evening, even more so than the GFS is cold.

All obs KSEA north show subfreezing DP's and lowering temps in the last half hour. I see no model that warms temperatures up past what they are right now. 3km NAM is likely too aggressive with offshore cyclogenesis near the coast early tomorrow morning; this is a very common bias for the model.

Tonight could be historic.

Dude this is awesome, I’m so excited to see how low the temps will go in the next few days with this snow cover.

[Skier B]

33F dp29

.2" overnight.  Flurries now.  Should be interesting here as I'm just NW of KSEA.  

 

[Randyc321]

6 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

New weather update just posted by Rod Hill.

 

@MR.SNOWMIZER

Look.  Your favorite guy!

[thickhog]

Happy for my friends in the PS area, but d*mn is it frustrating to feel like Portland will never get a real snowstorm again.

[Requiem]

7 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

New weather update just posted by Rod Hill.

 

Love Rod but I feel as though he's too optimistic about scouring us out that quickly Friday. Mark seems confident this will last through Saturday.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, awright-31 said:

Don't get me excited. I'm already in full blown weenie mode. There's no going back now.

I’m keeping my expectations low for tomorrow but there’s a real possibility the south sound does better than expected. 

[fubario]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I think if the GFS is correct, there would be more snow for Tacoma. A heavy band moves south and just dissipates a little to quickly. Add an extra 1-3 inches if the GFS is correct.  @TacomaWx

oly down bad 

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

As exciting as JayA's faith in a GFS-esque scenario is, and as much as I would like to see a big dump of snow, I will feel a lot more optimistic about such a thing actually happening if the 18Z Euro climbs on board.

Even if it doesn't happen, it's still a decent snowfall.

Watch the 18z put current temps 5 degrees above the observed temps and fall on its face tomorrow with cold air being pushed out too early 

[SnowySeeker50]

Had some flurries flying in the morning and temp reached 34, slowly dropping back down now at 33. With some birthday luck, I think I should be good tonight.

[gusky]

It's happening guys. Here are the latest GEFS and EPS maps of >6" probabilities. SEA around 50% in both. 

[selkirks]

Definitely got above 32º F today here between U-Village and Ravenna as a good chunk of the snow that fell last night did end up melting. But now it's snowing (lightly) again!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Having JAYA on board is like having Mark NelsEn on board. Capitol E for Deweydog.

[SnowWillarrive]

Currently 32 degrees here. Radar claims snow falling. #phantomsnow

[selkirks]

2 minutes ago, thickhog said:

Happy for my friends in the PS area, but D**n is it frustrating to feel like Portland will never get a real snowstorm again.

Investment needed or Seattle in 20 years will be Portland today!

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

Light snow here now. 33/31 dp

[Cloud]

18z ECMWF is running.

[Meatyorologist]

God, the Euro is still verifying +8F in the strait. Honestly I am just as disappointed as I am excited; this is supposed to be the king! Must be very unnerving for the Sandpoint mets to watch obs go against the grain and the normally "safe" path of just trusting the Euro. But this is of course a very tenuous situation... I think it deserves some slack.

And their WSW shows some real maturity there--nice to go with observations and their gut instinct instead of the moderate solution. I really respect it, even if it busts tonight. The mark of a good forecaster is communicating when a very large threat exists, even if it means risking your reputation in the event it flops. This is a brand of courage that I wish I saw more often. Great on them!

[smerfylicious]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

God, the Euro is still verifying +8F in the strait. Honestly I am just as disappointed as I am excited; this is supposed to be the king! Must be very unnerving for the Sandpoint mets to watch obs go against the grain and the normally "safe" path of just trusting the Euro. But this is of course a very tenuous situation... I think it deserves some slack.

And their WSW shows some real maturity there--nice to go with observations and their gut instinct instead of the moderate solution. I really respect it, even if it busts tonight. The mark of a good forecaster is communicating when a very large threat exists, even if it means risking your reputation in the event it flops. This is a brand of courage that I wish I saw more often. Great on them!

It's never been good with short term temps. Bread and butter for euro always seems to be big picture, 3-7 days out.

[Gummy]

3 minutes ago, selkirks said:

Definitely got above 32º F today here between U-Village and Ravenna as a good chunk of the snow that fell last night did end up melting. But now it's snowing (lightly) again!

That is true, I definitely felt the temp change going from the north part of town down to U.Village today. Evidenced by the high temps so far.

[Skagit Weather]

I know this event is capturing all the attention at the moment, but did anyone look at the full extent of the 12z or 18z GFS? Those runs are probably the wettest I've ever seen. Obviously not going to happen, but fun to see 250"+ of snow forecast for the highest elevations of the Cascades and Olympics over a two week stretch.

[TT-SEA]

18Z ECMWF a little warmer again with the temp spike tomorrow morning. 

To lay out timing... this is snow through 7 a.m.  and the projected temps at that time.

 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Snowing lightly.  Real fine snow, which gets into everything.  Perfect!

[RentonHill]

barf

[TT-SEA]

High temps through 10 a.m. before crash...

 

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through 4 p.m. tomorrow...

 

[T-Town]

If this thing busts here but dumps snow on SeaTac so my kids can’t fly home for Christmas….  My wife will be out on the runway with a shovel, personally keeping the airport open. 

[Requiem]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

18Z ECMWF a little warmer again with the temp spike tomorrow morning. 

To lay out timing... this is snow through 7 a.m.  and the projected temps at that time.

 

I really do want to see this bust-- and historically it has been very difficult to argue with the EURO on surface details. Bt it really hasn't been all the great the past few weeks-- I feel like a surprise may be at hand.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

God, the Euro is still verifying +8F in the strait. Honestly I am just as disappointed as I am excited; this is supposed to be the king! Must be very unnerving for the Sandpoint mets to watch obs go against the grain and the normally "safe" path of just trusting the Euro. But this is of course a very tenuous situation... I think it deserves some slack.

And their WSW shows some real maturity there--nice to go with observations and their gut instinct instead of the moderate solution. I really respect it, even if it busts tonight. The mark of a good forecaster is communicating when a very large threat exists, even if it means risking your reputation in the event it flops. This is a brand of courage that I wish I saw more often. Great on them!

This thing isn't going to bust.  If anything the amounts look to light, a widespread 6-12 inches look doable out of this.

Only thing that might burn us is moisture content but we will learn that here real quick by watch radar trends.

Sure looks like the low has a b line to about Aberdeen to me.

[Cloud]

The Euro insists on the warm nose and rain by 4am Tuesday.  

there is almost a 10F difference between the GFS and the euro at this time. 

[runninthruda206]

Light snow has begun

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Snowfall amounts in the official forecast here have been upped to the 4–8" range.

[fubario]

"Winter Cancel" v147

[awright-31]

OLM down to 35... you know you have a problem when you celebrate a 1-degree drop in temp.