PNW December 2022 - Part II

[GoldenEars]

It's been so long since I've seen snow this deep! There's going to be a nightmare commute for people in Vancouver this morning.

[van city]

Just hit 8 inches of new snow and with the 7 from the first, 15 in total so far. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just thinking. This event is January 2005s orphan child. 

[weatherweenie]

Woke up to no snow. South wind is going and nearest WU station says it's 35⁰.   

I'm sad and in full on weenie-mode.

Edit: 25 mins later, it's now 39⁰. Poop.

 

Edited December 20, 2022 by weatherweenie

[Seattle]

Woke up and looks like it’s still 32.5 at most stations in the neighborhood, so that’s a positive sign. SEA IS 34/32 with SE winds, so still some easterly component there. It’s since accumulated snow on roads here.

The bad news is that there’s not much precip out there… did I wake up too early? 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just thinking. This event is January 2005s orphan child. 

Would be a pretty epic last moment collapse if so. Oof.

[van city]

This snow is coming with a temperature of 19 F. Unreal 

[snowbustcity]

Just barely hanging on in NE Seattle. 

[MikeInEverett]

Heavier stuff looks like it’s making it’s way inland now. Have a couple inches here.

[snowbustcity]

12 minutes ago, van city said:

Just hit 8 inches of new snow and with the 7 from the first, 15 in total so far. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I was just in Vancouver this weekend to visit family, and decided to come back Sunday evening with my family so we wouldn’t get stuck. Looks like we made the right call but I also sad to have missed it!

We go up to Van every Dec and the past number of December’s have been quite snowy!

[Requiem]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just thinking. This event is January 2005s orphan child. 

Eh, second push of cold air definitely seems different this time around-- more potent for sure.

[MikeInEverett]

Holding steady at 30F here

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Eh, second push of cold air definitely seems different this time around-- more potent for sure.

Hasn’t happened yet…

[MossMan]

About another inch or so since I went to bed around midnight. Very light snow coming down. 22.6 degrees. 

[Blizzard777]

Current disposition in Federal Way while the ex is the clear winner with more coming down up in Ferndale Wa. (13* with 35mph NE winds) and driving drifting snow! 
conflicting emotions 

34* with SSE winds  

 

[snow maniac]

Turned to rain here, since about 2 am had a good 2 inches, what a letdown!

31 degrees and all rain!!!!

[Jbolin]

What an EPIC FAIL. Not a single goddamn flake all night. Nothing. 

A lot of folks are gonna be pissed at the so-called "storm".

This s*** was hyped big by local outlets and had people running around like crazy.

Yes, NWS did state there would be a line of demarcation so to speak, but holyshit, what a complete dud.

[Jbolin]

5 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

What an EPIC FAIL. Not a single goddamn flake all night. Nothing. 

A lot of folks are gonna be pissed at the so-called "storm".

This s*** was hyped big by local outlets and hasld people running around like crazy.

Yes, NWS did state there would be a line of demarcation so to speak, but holyshit, what a complete dud.

Additionally, stiff SW breeze at 14mph (warm as f***-all right now) 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

41 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Would be a pretty epic last moment collapse if so. Oof.

PDX south it may play out in a very similar fashion. The 2005 event was great in whatcom county and the Vancouver metro. 
 

PDX and SLE had a sub freezing high and ZR with a back door push of cold air… Maybe a hybrid 2005, 2020, 2004

[TT-SEA]

Temps into the 40s all the way up the WA coast right now with south winds.  This allows us to pinpoint the center of the low. This storm is coming in right around the NW tip of WA.    This warm spike will quickly pass over the Seattle area this morning.   Cold air rushes back in along back edge of precip starting around 1 p.m. in Seattle.

I think the modeling issues have to due to with the fact that the low was rapidly developing and not an established storm moving in.   The snowy model runs that buried Seattle this morning (like 00Z GFS) just could not latch on to the developing low and kept it more of an open wave.   The ECMWF got the idea on Sunday and stayed consistent... but it was also playing catch up as the low was shown to be a little stronger and farther north with each run.   

It seems like rapidly developing lows tend to end up farther north than modeled... while weakening lows often end up south of modeled projections.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Temps into the 40s all the way up the WA coast right now with south winds.  This allows to pinpoint the center of the low. This storm is coming in right around the NW tip of WA.    This warm spike with quickly pass over the Seattle area this morning.   Cold air rushes back in along back edge of precip starting around 1 p.m. in Seattle.

I think the modeling issues have to due to with the fact that the low was rapidly developing and not an established storm moving in.   The snowy model runs that buried Seattle this morning (like 00Z GFS) just could not latch on to the developing low and kept it more of an open wave.   The ECMWF got the idea on Sunday and stayed consistent... but it was also playing catch up as the low was shown to be a little stronger and farther north with each run.   

It seems like rapidly developing lows tend to end up farther north than modeled... while weakening lows often end up south modeled projections.  

It’s funny the GFS showed this happening first and was rock solid only to cave to the euro as the euro caved to the gfs. 

[Blizzard777]

Port Angeles and San Juan islands enjoying  

[Seattle]

Was even possible to tell from satellite imagery that the low was strengthening?

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It’s funny the GFS showed this happening first and was rock solid only to cave to the euro as the euro caved to the gfs. 

Very true... I just realized the GFS was the original hold out on snow and showed the northern position first.   Which was the right answer.   No model comes out of this a winner.   But once it get within 48 hours it's really hard to beat the ECMWF. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Up north is getting probably the best storm in many years. Bellingham was due for a good one.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9" new, 11" on the ground. Still dumping. 18˚F.

Weather report says it might continue until noon!

[Seattle]

God damnit. It is 33.1/32.7 and raining. SSW 12 at SEA and 37 - they are definitely in the warm sector. Maybe I have a chance to turn to snow with heavier precip? Who am I kidding. Ugh.

At least I'm fully awake and can get some work out of the way to follow any backwash. If we are so lucky to taste those scraps the weather gods throw at us. Nothing like waking up at 4 for rain 

[Blizzard777]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

9" new, 11" on the ground. Still dumping. 18˚F.

Weather report says it might continue until noon!

My ex sent me this nice photo two hours ago.  It’s drifting snow so no way to get a proper measurement.  Told her to update when light out.  I’m assuming snow blowing everywhere as she is not wind protected and taking the full force. 
Ferndale Wa. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This was extremely close to a huge event for Seattle.  75 miles south with the track and it would of been much different.  

[MikeInEverett]

Rain has made it all the way up to Edmonds! Still snowing at my place in Everett when I left for work.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Rain mix here now and 31.   ****.

[MikeInEverett]

What a bummer! Hopefully we can get some of the goods when temperatures crash later

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

What a bizarre storm. No wind here yet I still mixed out the column.  I was pretty confident it would remain snow out here.

[Christensen87]

Other than some flurries yesterday evening, no snow at all unfortunately. Light rain now and 36° in Kent. Hoping the last batch of heavier precipitation in a few hours will changeover to snow before it ends, but overall, what a letdown. Frustrating how extremely difficult forecasting snow is around here. 

[MikeInEverett]

Rain/Snow shadow is really ugly and annoying right now 

[HoodCanalBridge]

Still straight snow where I'm at.  Estimating about 2" or so on the ground.

[Everleigh]

Woke up to 43.7*, pretty big winds (just had a 26+mph gust) from the SSW, and not a single flake fell here in Yelm. I knew our chances were low, but still....

[Blizzard777]

30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Very true... I just realized the GFS was the original hold out on snow and showed the northern position first.   Which was the right answer.   No model comes out of this a winner.   But once it get within 48 hours it's really hard to beat the ECMWF. 

Agree….ECMWF (even though I hate it currently) is the one to put stock in (short term). 

[SouthHillFrosty]

What a joke. The GFS is a shit system that shouldn’t exist 

[Requiem]

Not sure if it's indicative of much but apparently 84 is closed Troutdale to Hood River due to ice