PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Requiem]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

The power of the Gorge...

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

It is pretty crazy.....I'm sitting here with a foot of powder and 17 degree temp, and not even 2 hours south its been mostly rain...crazy weather patterns out here....Definitely sucks for the folks down south, but I can appreciate it, it was a major bummer up here with the event last month where we had cold throughout the region but the moisture stayed south of us.

 

win some lose some.....and for Oregon unfortunately its usually lose some lose some....

You wouldn't have that foot of snow if it was cold all the way down south!   Battle grounds make snow.  

[HuskyMaestro]

16 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This one will be etched into my memory as one of the biggest busts in the Seattle south area ever. I'm bothered by the fact we have a top tier airmass at the border that just hasn't made it much south. Lastnight could of been a top 5 Seattle 24hr snowfall if things had been just a bit more suppressed. 

Couldn’t have said it better myself. It’s so frustrating, man. The Swamp is what it is. Eternally cursed during “marginal” events, and it was only marginal because that top tier arctic air didn’t make it south. Didn’t have to be.

[BLI snowman]

49 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

The warming aloft wasn't as quick/aggressive with that compared to this right? It would have been nice if we could be going into this with cold 850mb temps. 

BTW the 12z Euro shows that wet bulbing at 850 much more dramatically than previous runs. Drops from 0c to -3c pretty quick during that first band. Like you said though, I think most of that precip gets eaten up and its pretty doubtful that it leads to much snow accumulation. The euro soundings show the DP barely above 0F even on the west end of town at that time. At least the surface will be cold and allow whatever survives to stick right away.

IMO getting an inch out of this would be pretty lucky and I'd consider it a strong success. 

 

 

Yeah, as modeled the mid level WAA seems pretty fast and furious on Thursday evening across all models. The wet bulb magic really will only be good for that initial band. So it's a very short 3-6 hour window at best, during which time everything points to a lot of dry air still advecting in.

[Seattle]

5 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

That time was so frustrating, we got traces of snow two separate days and it seemed like everywhere north and south of here was getting good amounts. 

It's wild how hard it is to get a good regional event here. Even one that all of Western WA experiences!

You really did not miss out much on those previous events. Outflow temps + 8"+ snow > Slushy accumulations of <2". 

[Doinko]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

 

Yeah, as modeled the mid level WAA seems pretty fast and furious on Thursday evening across all models. The wet bulb magic really will only be good for that initial band. So it's a very short 3-6 hour window at best, during which time everything points to a lot of dry air still advecting in.

How cold do you think PDX could get? Has the low level cold trended warmer or about stayed the same?

[SouthHillFrosty]

I think this year has been super frustrating. Just so many days with measurable snow that didn’t pan out.

 

Snow 2022/2023

 

11/29: 1.5in

11/30-12/1: 3in

12/2 morning: .5in 

12/2-12/3: 4in

12/4: 2in

12/18: .2in

12/19: .2in

12/20: .2in

 

Szn total: 11.6in

 

 

[Terreboner]

12z GFS gives us in central and eastern Oregon a good old New Year's Eve/Day snowstorm!!!  Perfect low track.

[snow_wizard]

I guess the next act of this ongoing drama will be the possible Arctic front snow for the Puget Sound area tonight.  I think some places could see 1 to 2 inches out of it.

[Tenochtitlan]

2 minutes ago, Seattle said:

You really did not miss out much on those previous events. Outflow temps + 8"+ snow > Slushy accumulations of <2". 

Good point, also I was happy at least to have seen snow then. After sitting through the twin almost-snowless winters of 2014-15 and 2015-16, I'm thankful for whatever we get.

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

I think this year has been super frustrating. Just so many days with measurable snow that didn’t pan out.

 

Snow 2022/2023

 

11/29: 1.5in

11/30-12/1: 3in

12/2 morning: .5in 

12/2-12/3: 4in

12/4: 2in

12/18: .2in

12/19: .2in

12/20: .2in

 

Szn total: 11.6in

 

 

A season of this

[dhoffine]

Rain wrapping up, shows snow over us in Enumclaw but its still just rain.

Temp did definitely drop, 33 now, after being 42 just a couple hours ago, but moisture is going away.

Maybe in January!

[TacomaWx]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

I think this year has been super frustrating. Just so many days with measurable snow that didn’t pan out.

 

Snow 2022/2023

 

11/29: 1.5in

11/30-12/1: 3in

12/2 morning: .5in 

12/2-12/3: 4in

12/4: 2in

12/18: .2in

12/19: .2in

12/20: .2in

 

Szn total: 11.6in

 

 

Double what I’ve got. I’ve still enjoyed this winter overall and we will have another shot before it’s over. 
 32 and some flurries stuck hill after the front passage in Milton/Edgewood. 

[Requiem]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Yeah, as modeled the mid level WAA seems pretty fast and furious on Thursday evening across all models. The wet bulb magic really will only be good for that initial band. So it's a very short 3-6 hour window at best, during which time everything points to a lot of dry air still advecting in.

What are your thoughts on the ice accumulation side of things? More than forecast, less than? 

[HuskyMaestro]

January needs to have an widespread 8”+ snow event Seattle south all the way down to Eugene to make up for this so everyone could score. Maybe it could happen if we wish it hard enough but I’m extra pessimistic for next month. 

[WeatherGeek2022]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

A season of this

deja vu in a couple weeks.

[TacomaWx]

Some echoes on radar developing behind the front in a couple spots across the sound. 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I think this year has been super frustrating. Just so many days with measurable snow that didn’t pan out.

 

Snow 2022/2023

 

11/29: 1.5in

11/30-12/1: 3in

12/2 morning: .5in 

12/2-12/3: 4in

12/4: 2in

12/18: .2in

12/19: .2in

12/20: .2in

 

Szn total: 11.6in

 

 

That's snowier than any winter I've experienced here besides 2016/2017

[SnowySeeker50]

That was disappointing. It tried to transitioned but got a to a wintry mix at best. Very light slush trace on cars and trees have a light ice covering on them.

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, WeatherGeek2022 said:

deja vu in a couple weeks.

you think so?

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

I feel the same as many others here about the winter so far. It's felt like every event so far I've been too far east, south, north, or west. Just so frustrating.

[WeatherGeek2022]

4 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

you think so?

dead given from living here for my entire life honestly.

 

praying for a different outcome still though.

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

What are your thoughts on the ice accumulation side of things? More than forecast, less than? 

You're going to get killed up there.  I would guess .5-.75 of ice at your place, minimum.

[BLI snowman]

17 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

I wonder how last night would stack up in terms of 24-hour snowfall if BLI measured snow. Would it be top ten? I'd guess at least top fifteen.

Definitely could land in the top 10. Of course they stopped measuring there in 1996, so this list excludes a number of big calendar day storms for them (12/29/1996, 3/20/2002, 11/26/2006, 12/24/2008, 2/24/2014).

Edited December 20, 2022 by BLI snowman

[KingstonWX]

2 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

January needs to have an widespread 8”+ snow event Seattle south all the way down to Eugene to make up for this so everyone could score. Maybe it could happen if we wish it hard enough but I’m extra pessimistic for next month. 

In order to properly make up for the misses, it should happen totally unexpectedly. Been a while since we've had one of those events where everyone ditches their cars on I-5. 

[Deweydog]

North winds have made it to the station of the gods!

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

January needs to have an widespread 8”+ snow event Seattle south all the way down to Eugene to make up for this so everyone could score. Maybe it could happen if we wish it hard enough but I’m extra pessimistic for next month. 

South of Seattle did pretty well in the late Nov / early Dec event.  At least parts of it.

[KingstonWX]

Radar echos popping up out of nowhere and about to move in here. I guess we're not totally done yet. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Definitely could land in the top 10. Of course they stopped measuring there in 1996, so this list excludes a number of big calendar day storms for them (12/29/1996, 3/20/2002, 11/26/2006, 12/24/2008, 2/24/2014).

Very interesting to note that many of those featured more cold weather later in the winter.

[SouthHillFrosty]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Double what I’ve got. I’ve still enjoyed this winter overall and we will have another shot before it’s over. 
 32 and some flurries stuck hill after the front passage in Milton/Edgewood. 

Oh I’m super happy with what I got. Espically relative to the rest of the area. Just so close to a top 5-10 year.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

That's snowier than any winter I've experienced here besides 2016/2017

Yesterday at this time he was well ahead of me!

[snow_wizard]

Just now, KingstonWX said:

Radar echos popping up out of nowhere and about to move in here. I guess we're not totally done yet. 

Probably the early part of the Arctic front action.

[WildrootParable]

1 minute ago, KingstonWX said:

Radar echos popping up out of nowhere and about to move in here. I guess we're not totally done yet. 

If you could shove a few of those down this way I would really appreciate it, thanks! 

[MossMan]

Currently 26. Nice day for a drive. 
Oh I just measured…7”!

Edited December 20, 2022 by MossMan

[KingstonWX]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Probably the early part of the Arctic front action.

I'll take it. 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the temp is going to stay at 32 here even though the snow has stopped.  Nice to see that.  The sky still has a very snowy look to it.

[Hawksfan2008]

The EURO is showing an impactful transition for North Bend. Nearly half an inch of ice and 40 mph winds. I’ve noticed it usually overdoes east wind here but that would be wild. 

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Probably the early part of the Arctic front action.

Convergence zone firing up and I think it could get pretty intense for the next few hours, and will probably set up closer to Seattle since the northerly flow is dominant.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Currently 26. Nice day for a drive. 

Nothing like dry snow and temps well below freezing!

[BLI snowman]

16 minutes ago, Doinko said:

How cold do you think PDX could get? Has the low level cold trended warmer or about stayed the same?

I would be pretty shocked if they get below 18-19. That's probably about the upper (lower) range of this thing. Similar to January 2004, although that had a better upper level recipe and quite possibly some beefier precip rates as well to help with that.

I don't think the low level picture has changed too much. Gonna be some more last minute moderation but more of the gradual variety. Except on the stupider models (NAM).

Edited December 20, 2022 by BLI snowman