PNW December 2022 - Part II

[smerfylicious]

Looks like this system was kind of a bust for me. Unless I get some CZ action my gains are limited to a couple inches. Was pegged to get 8" last night. Oh well, can't win em all

[Tyler Mode]

1 minute ago, GobBluth said:

With snow cover and clear skies.

And calm winds...none of which are forecast lol

I haven't been below 20 since...3 days ago lol

[Front Ranger]

14 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yeah, I’m skeptical about how fast the Euro wants to warm things up Friday into Saturday after bringing in an airmass that, at face value on this run, advects PDX into the upper teens Thursday night. I don’t think it’s going to give up the fight that easily and this is a classic case of models underestimating the tenacity of the low level cold coming out of the gorge.

What happened in Dec 1968?

[Cloud]

13 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I’m still liking our chances for some snow after the front passes. Still precip north of the transition line.

That looks like a convergence zone and narrow. Quite interested to see how his plays out and if it’ll sink. 

[MossMan]

Sorry Jesse I cannot resist! 
None of the roads have been touched up here yet. I feel so fortunate not only for this event but for all of them since December 2017! 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Cloud said:

That looks like a convergence zone and narrow. Quite interested to see how his plays out and if it’ll sink. 

A lot of the models show precip in the areas that got screwed after the front passes. 

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

And I think that one was pretty much all rain north of Olympia or so.

In the midst of our PS ownage!!!

I think shortly after that as nino reality set in, Jim was looking at properties in Felida.

[joelgombiner]

6 minutes ago, snowbustcity said:

Back to a really good snowfall rate in NE Seattle. 

Radar and the view out the window looks exciting. Back to steady snow here. 

[Hawksfan2008]

Just dumping here in North Bend. Been incredible since moving here the last couple of years. So many ways this area can do well. 

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

PDX hasn't dropped below 20 since 2017...and that was 11 in January, almost 5 years.

Now officially their longest streak on record without a teen (not counting the 116 of course).

[runninthruda206]

Big hole over nw Seattle right now

[Chewbacca Defense]

44 minutes ago, Cloud said:

There is no BLI-SEA… best to look at OLM-BLI if you want that reference. Or even HQM-SEA. 
 

fwiw, most are interested in the BLI-YWL… which is ripping right now at about -20. This sets up for an Arctic plunge mid-week with the Fraser outflow. 

link for your reference
 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sew/dients.php

I was wondering what it was doing.  I am on the edge of the outflow cone, and the gradient has to get pretty high before we see anything, and the winds have definitely picked up here. 

[Cold Snap]

Coming down nicely right now. Hoping this convergence zone can help give me some more going into this. Currently 28 and just measured about a 3 inch snow depth. Gotten an inch since the switchover to snow this morning.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Sorry Jesse I cannot resist! 
None of the roads have been touched up here yet. I feel so fortunate not only for this event but for all of them since December 2017! 

 

[snowbustcity]

2 minutes ago, runninthruda206 said:

Big hole over nw Seattle right now

Not in NE at least. It's dumping here. 

[Hawksfan2008]

Snoqualmie pass closed at North Bend 

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Now officially their longest streak on record without a teen (not counting the 116 of course).

We're also getting close to longest streak without a sub-30 high, though that could end Thursday/Friday

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

30 degrees and rain! 

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Could be a damned if you do, damned if you don’t… Models have some history of overselling the depth of the gradient. 12/20/08 was sold pretty heavily as having a pretty significant downslope component but we ended up dead calm during most of the WAA. It’d be a big model miss at this point but a boy can dream! A scenario like that would lead to a more tentative mid level situation though…

We'll see, unfortunately I just don't see this one having the juice/wet bulb combo potential to drive us into metro-wide snowfall accumulations. But the models do also still tend to undersell the short term 850mb wet bulb impact a bit with these low level cold pools. The aforementioned 2016 event really didn't show any face value snow potential in the forecast soundings until about 36-48 hours out, and this is obviously a deeper cold pool.

Edited December 20, 2022 by BLI snowman

[RentonHill]

[Rubus Leucodermis]

 

[SnowySeeker50]

Temperature has dropped to below freezing. Still raining.

[Prairiedog]

Temp has  bounced from 38f to 44f at 11:20.  Have a little south wind mixing in.  Need that arctic front to switch those winds around. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, SnowySeeker50 said:

Temperature has dropped to below freezing. Still raining.

We might pick up some ice accumulation tbh

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

In the midst of our PS ownage!!!

I think shortly after that as nino reality set in, Jim was looking at properties in Felida.

~March 2012 to February 2018. Good streak!

New one begins in 2024.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Coming down nicely right now. Hoping this convergence zone can help give me some more going into this. Currently 28 and just measured about a 3 inch snow depth. Gotten an inch since the switchover to snow this morning.

I think you are in a good spot up there for the action tonight.

[Christensen87]

1 minute ago, SnowySeeker50 said:

Temperature has dropped to below freezing. Still raining.

Interesting that in Auburn/Lakeland Hills area it's freezing or below, but in Kent/Covington way north of there, it's still 36. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

30 degrees and rain! 

That would be freezing rain if it's raining at 30.

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

We're also getting close to longest streak without a sub-30 high, though that could end Thursday/Friday

 

Coming in clutch! (since we know January is DOA).

[dhoffine]

41 in Enumclaw, still raining hard.

Here's to hoping it changes in the next couple hours before the moisture is all gone.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

 

Such negativity over a cute little snowfall!

[Hawksfan2008]

I can’t believe we have yet another event to track after this…what a ride 

[Snownerd3000]

I recall a CZ was modeled around king/snohomish line as the front passed.  Is that expected anymore?

[bainbridgekid]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

I recall a CZ was modeled around king/snohomish line as the front passed.  Is that expected anymore?

It’s happening right now. Sliding toward North Seattle/Kirkland at the moment.

[Tyler Mode]

Breaking up a bit now in the Olympics.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

14 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Now officially their longest streak on record without a teen (not counting the 116 of course).

Wow. I’d imagine the same at SLE? 

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

It’s happening right now. Sliding toward North Seattle/Kirkland at the moment.

STALL!

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

That would be freezing rain if it's raining at 30.

Yes, yes it is unfortunately 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

I recall a CZ was modeled around king/snohomish line as the front passed.  Is that expected anymore?

I think its more of an arctic front and it is still shown this evening.    It does not appear to be related to the departing system as it comes down from the north.  

[Tenochtitlan]

Whatcom Creek is so beautiful in the snow.