PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Blizzard777]

Visual of this magical stuff 

[Terreboner]

I figured that convergence zone would develop in Seattle or south of town.  Looks like it is coming together and should increase in intensity for the next few hours.  Should help out some of you guys south of the city.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

I think the one up between Vancouver Island and Vancouver is what is going to sag south tonight.

Yep... I looked back at the 12Z ECMWF and that is what it showed.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Snowing light here and 28 degrees

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

@Meatyorologistthis is what I was asking about earlier. Weak low’s getting spun up. Might have been badly worded

Ya, but that is not a meso-low.  That low has been there for days.  You are noticing it now because it's on the move.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yep... I looked back at the 12Z ECMWF and that is what it showed.

Look at the satellite Tim you can see rotation around the island. Must be a weak low.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Are my eyes deceiving me or do we have more snow inbound?

[TT-SEA]

HRRR also shows that area of precip off VI morphing into some kind of arctic front tonight.

[KingstonWX]

Just now, Terreboner said:

Ya, but that is not a meso-low.  That low has been there for days.  You are noticing it now because it's on the move.

It wasn't showing up on radar earlier. It is now. 

[jakerepp]

Frozen lake Lowell in Nampa

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Terreboner said:

Ya, but that is not a meso-low.  That low has been there for days.  You are noticing it now because it's on the move.

Ah thanks!

[snow_wizard]

This snow is a lot more significant than it looks on the radar.  Still hope for people further south.

[Terreboner]

This depicts what is going to happen later very well.  Some of you guys will be happy to see this :).

Click on future radar and loop it.  That thing gets pretty vigorous as it approaches the sound.

 

WunderMap® | Interactive Weather Map and Radar | Weather Underground (wunderground.com)

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Are my eyes deceiving me or do we have more snow inbound?

Your eyes are not deceiving you.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The coming AR’s are really worrisome up this way, and not just from an “I want my white Christmas” weather weenie sense. There’s already now a mountain snowpack all the way down to sea level, and we look primed to get another sizable dump before the pineapples engage. Flooding is a real worry. Could end up being a Dec 1996 replay up this way.

Yeah...going to be some not fun stuff coming up for some folks after tomorrow.  High winds, possible ice, possible floods.

[snow maniac]

30.6 degrees and freezing mist now for about an hour everything is getting glazed over.

[NWbyNW]

I know a lot of people aren't looking at weather outside their immediate area, but I had to point this out to everyone.  Spokane may see it's coldest temperatures coming up since 2004. Spokane may not reach much above ten degrees on Thursday!   Some areas around Spokane may not even reach zero degrees. It is going to be absolutely frigid.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah...going to be some not fun stuff coming up for some folks after tomorrow.  High winds, possible ice, possible floods.

I'm betting we see more snow than freezing rain. Especially with the offshore flow

[HuskyMaestro]

41 minutes ago, Dave said:

Meanwhile, Atlanta is forecast to have 3 straight subfreezing highs including a 21/10 spread. Lol. 

 

It always feels like it's easier for subfreezing temps to verify in the Southeast where it's normally warmer and mild in the winter, how they can accurately predict these temps days beforehand. Whereas we always have to pull teeth and have the most sensitive and intricate setup around here for some snow and subfreezing lows while also watching out for rug pulls. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, HuskyMaestro said:

It always feels like it's easier for subfreezing temps to verify in the Southeast where it's normally warmer and mild in the winter, how they can accurately predict these temps days beforehand. Whereas we always have to pull teeth and have the most sensitive and intricate setup around here for some snow and subfreezing lows while also watching out for rug pulls. 

The Pacific Ocean and a lot more terrain.

[Perturbed Member]

Looks like PDX NWS used the NBM output to guide their current forecasts. 


Becoming even windier Wednesday night into Thursday when the
NAM/GFS/EURO all show surface pressure gradients peaking around -11
to -12 mb from Troutdale to the Dalles. The NBM v4.1 is already
showing around a 70% chance of wind gusts in excess of ~75 mph
through the western Gorge during that time, which seems quite
reasonable. In fact, would expect peak wind gusts closer to 100 mph
for exposed locations such as Crown Point, 70-80 mph for Corbett, and
40-55 mph for Wood Village and Troutdale. Although it will be dry
Wednesday night through Thursday morning, the strong offshore flow
will advect even colder temperatures in western WA/OR as the cold
pool deepens east of the Cascade crest. In fact, the deterministic
NBM is even colder now and suggests overnight lows in the low to mid
teens across southwest WA and the Portland metro, single digits in
the Gorge, and below zero temperatures in the Cascades. Overnight
lows should be in the upper teens to mid 20s in the central and
southern Willamette Valley. Even the coast should drop into the low
to mid 20s, except upper 20s in the Florence area. In addition, gusty
east winds will result in dangerously cold wind chills near zero
degrees across the Portland/Vancouver metro and below zero in the
Gorge. This will significantly increase the threat of frostbite and
hypothermia for anyone who is exposed to the elements and is not
dressed properly for the cold.

[MikeInEverett]

2 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

It always feels like it's easier for subfreezing temps to verify in the Southeast where it's normally warmer and mild in the winter, how they can accurately predict these temps days beforehand. Whereas we always have to pull teeth and have the most sensitive and intricate setup around here for some snow and subfreezing lows while also watching out for rug pulls. 

We are surrounded by mountains and have much more complicated terrain features than those places. Oh yeah what Tiger said, the ocean too.

[Chewbacca Defense]

7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Your eyes are not deceiving you.

LOL Just walked outside and lo and behold it’s snowing again

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Looks like PDX NWS used the NBM output to guide their current forecasts. 


Becoming even windier Wednesday night into Thursday when the
NAM/GFS/EURO all show surface pressure gradients peaking around -11
to -12 mb from Troutdale to the Dalles. The NBM v4.1 is already
showing around a 70% chance of wind gusts in excess of ~75 mph
through the western Gorge during that time, which seems quite
reasonable. In fact, would expect peak wind gusts closer to 100 mph
for exposed locations such as Crown Point, 70-80 mph for Corbett, and
40-55 mph for Wood Village and Troutdale. Although it will be dry
Wednesday night through Thursday morning, the strong offshore flow
will advect even colder temperatures in western WA/OR as the cold
pool deepens east of the Cascade crest. In fact, the deterministic
NBM is even colder now and suggests overnight lows in the low to mid
teens across southwest WA and the Portland metro, single digits in
the Gorge, and below zero temperatures in the Cascades. Overnight
lows should be in the upper teens to mid 20s in the central and
southern Willamette Valley. Even the coast should drop into the low
to mid 20s, except upper 20s in the Florence area. In addition, gusty
east winds will result in dangerously cold wind chills near zero
degrees across the Portland/Vancouver metro and below zero in the
Gorge. This will significantly increase the threat of frostbite and
hypothermia for anyone who is exposed to the elements and is not
dressed properly for the cold.

[awright-31]

Really was hoping we'd get through the month without seeing 50. Doesn't look likely at this point. At least it comes with an AR

[MossMan]

Come on little guy, intensify and head right to the point of the arrow…You can do it!! (Actually my arrow is a little off…But you get the idea you little pocket of snowy goodness!! 

Edited December 20, 2022 by MossMan

[SouthHillFrosty]

Radar isn’t picking any of this up. Maybe we squeeze out another .10 of an inch 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, snow maniac said:

30.6 degrees and freezing mist now for about an hour everything is getting glazed over.

I went from freezing mist, to sleet, to dry snow in less than a half hour.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It looks like any convergence tonight will be between Kent and Seattle. Hopefully it can spead west over this way. It's snowing here right now with almost nothing on radar.

Edited December 20, 2022 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[WeatherGeek2022]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Come on little guy, intensify and head right to the point of the arrow…You can do it!! 

just needs a little nudge.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Radar isn’t picking any of this up. Maybe we squeeze out another .10 of an inch 

Do you mean water equivalent or snow?  I've already had more than that much new snow.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow it's actually coming down pretty good.

[KingstonWX]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Radar isn’t picking any of this up. Maybe we squeeze out another .10 of an inch 

NWS radar shows it: https://radar.weather.gov/

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Getting a steady band of snow grains here now. Still WNW flow aloft so that'll create instability as it hits the lower level outflow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

This is factually inaccurate. Pretty much everyone in the I-5 corridor of Oregon had lows in the 10-15 range in January 2017. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm betting we see more snow than freezing rain. Especially with the offshore flow

And then the pineapples win and the flooding begins.

[Phishy Wx]

snowing off an on all day.  9" ish so far.  winterizing the house. put on some spigot covers and foundation vent blockers to hopefully help the pipes

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

It always feels like it's easier for subfreezing temps to verify in the Southeast where it's normally warmer and mild in the winter, how they can accurately predict these temps days beforehand. Whereas we always have to pull teeth and have the most sensitive and intricate setup around here for some snow and subfreezing lows while also watching out for rug pulls. 

Sub freezing lows are easy here.  I think you meant highs.  Also bear in mind they are never going to see anything like Jan 1950 or other great winters there.

[NWbyNW]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Come on little guy, intensify and head right to the point of the arrow…You can do it!! 

 

I'm watching it too.  The band is growing from even just ten minutes ago and it is headed in our direction!!

I can see the very clouds covering the sky in that direction.  Most of the partly sunny skies here have now been covered in snow-like-looking clouds.

[TT-SEA]

18Z ECMWF shows more snow tonight...