Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22

[indianajohn]

Just now, Hoosier said:

What I'm very confident in is that this will be a standout storm for the month of December for our area.  We'll look back many years from now and remember it like Dec 2000 and... umm... what else has been very good in December for us?  

This true LMAO!! I really don't have many snowstorm stories to tell my future grandchildren where I had to walk uphill both ways to school in 2 feet of snow... LOL A white Christmas in our parts has been rare the last 20+ years  

[bud2380]

through 6pm Wednesday

 

[FarmerRick]

Just now, bud2380 said:

through 6pm Wednesday

 

Good, they sure need the moisture up in the northern plains/Rockies.

[Money]

Euro looks like it wants to go NW of 12z euro 

[jaster220]

DTX's writer was amazed by the Euro 0z run. Good stuff here. We got the "Sting Jet" potential.

A very interesting forecasted storm structure given the very large
wavelength to the upper level trough and potential vorticity
reservoir. Typically, see a storm structure with low deepening
occuring at the nose of maximized warm advection/moisture transport.
In this particular case, it appears that highest thetae advection and
geopotential heights falls will be extremely progressive, flashing
rapidly towards the Ontario/Quebec border region. So its interesting,
because at first glance one would think that any high end/historic
type precipitation amounts will be limited because of the rapid
northeastward translation. The problem, however, is the forecasted
instant occlusion or trough of warm air aloft that gets shielded
within the larger trough structure. Its allowed to just hang around
which brings less predictability to exact precipitation type/amounts.
Throw in the likely lake enhancement for some locations in the
region, its really difficult to envision a range of snow amounts at
this time.

The operational run of the 19.00Z ECMWF is remarkable and really
defines a maximum impacts potential for this setup. The solution
places a 1056 mb surface high over eastern Montana at 00Z 12.24 and a
968mb low over Georgian Bay. Just a tremendous amount of gradient
wind over all of the upper Midwest. Cannot remember any model
solutions or events with a comparable wavelength to the trough and
Potential Vorticity anomaly structure. The influence of this larger
trough on the occlusion will ultimately determine who witnesses a
sting jet response and maximum high wind potential. The latest 19.00Z
ECMWF run has 75 knots at 925mb over Toledo and western Lake Erie at
24.00Z. Stated it earlier, but the main narrative should be about
the impacts the strong winds would bring with falling snow during the
holiday travel period and potential widespread power outages.

In the wake of the storm system for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day,
high impact winter impacts are likely to persist. Most notable will
be the arctic cold with daytime temperatures in the teens and wind
chills both of the mornings pushing colder than 10 degrees below
zero. 850mb temperatures are expected to range between -16 and -18C
which will bring a potentially healthy DGZ in play. Northwest flow
trajectories normally limit the amount of lake effect snow for Southeast
Michigan, but given the sharply cyclonic flow through Christmas Day
the potential will likely exists for snow squall activity.

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, Money said:

Euro looks like it wants to go NW of 12z euro 

You mean 00z Euro?

I thought it might tick east if anything.  Hard to tell though.

[bud2380]

Euro doesn't even break out snow in Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area until 9am Thursday.  It's going to be just like the 6z run, with a quick push of at most 10 hours of snow

[winterfreak]

12z EURO looks similar to the 6z run around here. Between .4-.5” of moisture.

[Money]

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

You mean 00z Euro?

I thought it might tick east if anything.  Hard to tell though.

12z yesterday but it ends up pretty similar 

[bud2380]

Time for me to temper expectations.  Areas to my north, west and east will outperform eastern Iowa.  Just the perfect storm of ingredients for us to miss out on both the lead wave and the stronger deformation band.  Still a solid storm, but we will be on the lower end of snow totals in the area.

 

[Hawkeye]

1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

Time for me to temper expectations.  Areas to my north, west and east will outperform eastern Iowa.  Just the perfect storm of ingredients for us to miss out on both the lead wave and the stronger deformation band.  Still a solid storm, but we will be on the lower end of snow totals in the area.

Yep, that's exactly what's happening.  The initial northern low produces snow west and north, then the new energy rounds the base of the trough and everything reorganizes south and east.  Major ugh.

[Bellona]

Still a nice storm for many. With winds combined, I'm still pretty stoked.  Still a lot of runs to go before we reach 0 hour. 

[BMT]

Bud/Hawkeye - you guys gotta believe!  if we were in the bullseye this far out would you be taking it to the bank and cashing it already?   lots of time and this system is super dynamic.  Not to mention IF this scenario transpires, it would likely still be a 6" event which you guys know how hard it is to pull those off around here.  

[bud2380]

4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Yep, that's exactly what's happening.  The initial northern low produces snow west and north, then the new energy rounds the base of the trough and everything reorganizes south and east.  Major ugh.

A few days ago I said if we get 3-5" and a White Christmas out of it, I'd be happy with that.  I guess I just need to go back to that line of thinking.  If I were making a call for our area right now I'd say 3-6".  There's still time of course for the lead wave to track further south/east and the defo band to track further west, but the Euro has been pretty consistent that past few runs with this and I think it will end up pretty close for our area.  

[winterfreak]

2 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

I can't really complain if this actually happens.  As much as it'd be fun to get what Chicago may be getting (where I used to live back in the day), 7-9 inches in KC the week of Christmas happens less than once per decade.  So I'll take it.  Since 1888, KC has had 4+ inches on the ground for Christmas in the following years: 1909, 1914, 1915, 1918, 1924, 1945, 1948, 1983, 1989, 2009, 2013.  

Xmas Eve of 09…epic. One of the greatest storms we’ve had since I’ve lived here. The old KSHB weather blog comment section was hilarious back then. Don’t remember 2013 though.

[Madtown]

Well, looks like .9" from system snow and .6" from lake effect. Pretty incredible if it happens.

[Bumblin Bman09]

This is the first map I've seen showing amounts

 

[sholomar]

And I was going to leave from Brookings SD and drive to Grafton WI Friday Morning. Looks like that might end up being Saturday morning.  In any case, I hope we get dumped on. Latest ECMWF FTW.

[Hoosier]

fwiw, the 5 biggest blizzards in Chicago generally had ratios between 13:1 and 18:1.  The one exception was the January 1967 storm, which was down around 10:1.  I would not put as much weight on that one though because although surface temps are overrated for determining ratios, the temps were just so much milder for that storm.  

The GHD 2011 storm, which is part of the list of 5 that was mentioned above, had a ratio of 13.5:1 at O'Hare.  As anyone in the area would remember, that was an extremely windy storm with widespread numerous gusts of 50-60 mph and locally in excess of 70 mph near the Lake Michigan shore.

Based on this past history and an early examination of forecast soundings for the upcoming storm, I would feel comfortable going above a 10:1 ratio, at least around this area, and I feel like going somewhere around that 12:1 to 15:1 range is as good a guess as any at this time.

[Jack_GradStudent]

23 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

I was still in Chicago then.  We got it too.  It was a beautiful Christmas that year. Particularly because we weren't expecting that level of snowfall.

That Christmas was awesome.. that was the best Christmas present my 10 year old self could ask for. I remember there being close to foot where I live in Johnson County. That storm had it all in terms of precip type and think it was the first time I had every experienced a blizzard warning. 

[Jack_GradStudent]

Did anyone else get a bit frustrated reading the AFD from Pleasant Hill? During a week where at least some accumulating snow is possible, you'd think there would be more mention of it. Sure, the cold needs to be highlighted but I would have liked to see a bit more analysis regarding the precipitation possible from this system. 

[bud2380]

EPS Mean

 

[Hoosier]

You could probably say this for other areas as well... but for the Chicago area folks, if you're under 50 years old or so, you aren't old enough to remember anything like what is about to occur from a cold + snow + wind perspective.  The snow + wind part, yes, but not the cold. 

The amount of snow that could fall while temps are in the single digits is pretty remarkable.  The 2 storms that I can think of that combined all 3 of these elements are the January 1918 and January 1978 storms.  There may be something else, but it's not anything that happened in recent decades.

Some temperature and snowfall stats for Chicago from those storms:

High temp/low temp, daily snowfall:

1/11/1918:  18/-6, 5.9"

1/12/1918:  5/-14, 4.0"

 

1/25/1978:  33/14, 4.0"

1/26/1978:  24/8, 8.1"

 

[Hoosier]

I expect watches to go out relatively soon, even for areas near/east of the Mississippi River.  High confidence in the occurrence of a multi-faceted high impact storm and the offices will want maximum news headlines/exposure to the general public due to the high travel period.

[gosaints]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I expect watches to go out relatively soon, even for areas near/east of the Mississippi River.  High confidence in the occurrence of a multi-faceted high impact storm and the offices will want maximum news headlines/exposure to the general public due to the high travel period.

I would think many areas pop watches this afternoon maybe one more forecast cycle for areas further east

[jcwxguy]

updated watch

 

Quote

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
144 PM CST Mon Dec 19 2022

IAZ043-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065-
090>093-200345-
/O.NEW.KOAX.WC.W.0002.221222T0600Z-221224T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KOAX.WS.A.0003.221221T1800Z-221224T0100Z/
Monona-Montgomery-Fremont-Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-
Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-
Dodge-Butler-Saunders-Seward-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
Including the cities of Onawa, Mapleton, Red Oak, Sidney,
Hamburg, Tabor, Farragut, Clarinda, Shenandoah, Creighton,
Bloomfield, Crofton, Wausa, Verdigre, Niobrara, Hartington,
Laurel, Randolph, Coleridge, Pender, Macy, Walthill, Winnebago,
Neligh, Elgin, Pierce, Plainview, Osmond, Wayne, Albion,
St. Edward, Norfolk, Stanton, West Point, Wisner, Tekamah,
Oakland, Lyons, Decatur, Columbus, Schuyler, Fremont, David City,
Wahoo, Ashland, Yutan, Seward, Milford, Tecumseh, Sterling,
Auburn, Pawnee City, Table Rock, and Falls City
144 PM CST Mon Dec 19 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
NOON CST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Wind Chill Warning, dangerously cold wind
  chills expected. Wind chills as low as 45 below zero. For the
  Winter Storm Watch, blizzard conditions possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 4 to 7 inches possible. Winds could gust as
  high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest and west central Iowa and east
  central, northeast and southeast Nebraska.

 

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, gosaints said:

I would think many areas pop watches this afternoon maybe one more forecast cycle for areas further east

My thinking as well.  Rarely would you see it this early but it's an extraordinary set of circumstances, both storm wise and societal.

[gosaints]

Yep. There is MSP with a watch.  Madison and La crosse will most likely follow suit

[jaster220]

18 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

You could probably say this for other areas as well... but for the Chicago area folks, if you're under 50 years old or so, you aren't old enough to remember anything like what is about to occur from a cold + snow + wind perspective.  The snow + wind part, yes, but not the cold. 

The amount of snow that could fall while temps are in the single digits is pretty remarkable.  The 2 storms that I can think of that combined all 3 of these elements are the January 1918 and January 1978 storms.  There may be something else, but it's not anything that happened in recent decades.

Some temperature and snowfall stats for Chicago from those storms:

High temp/low temp, daily snowfall:

1/11/1918:  18/-6, 5.9"

1/12/1918:  5/-14, 4.0"

 

1/25/1978:  33/14, 4.0"

1/26/1978:  24/8, 8.1"

 

I remember waking up 1-26-78 walking out to join my older sister at the picture window of our folk's house. And just gawking at +SN flying absolutely sideways! It was a Thurs and obviously (tho I don't remember this part) schools had cancelled either the night before, or certainly at 5 am decision time for buses. Vis was likely 1/8 mi or so. That was in the low snow zone of SEMI. 

[jaster220]

Strangest WATCH ever seen

[jcwxguy]

[CentralNebWeather]

Update from NWS Hastings. Upped amounts a little to 2-5”. Wind chills as low as -50. Never seen that low forecasted here. 
 

WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENINGTHROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... ...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST SATURDAY... 

* WHAT...For the Wind Chill Warning, dangerously cold wind chills expected. Wind chills may reach as low as 50 below zero. For the Winter Storm Watch, blizzard conditions are possible, especially late Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches. A light glaze of ice could accumulate later Wednesday afternoon and evening prior to the snow. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph at times. 

[Bellona]

Mpx watch 5-10 inches..nice for our peeps up in MN!

[jaster220]

8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

My thinking as well.  Rarely would you see it this early but it's an extraordinary set of circumstances, both storm wise and societal.

MIchigan offices by Tue PM is my thought. Perhaps GRR & APX sooner. No rush for SEMI

[hlcater]

Those of us in eastern Iowa need the trough to go neg tilt faster in order to cash in on a decent storm. Unfortunately that has not been the trend over the past few runs. A scenario where those north, west, east, and south do better than we do is definitely on the table, which would really suck. 

[tbone8]

30 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

You could probably say this for other areas as well... but for the Chicago area folks, if you're under 50 years old or so, you aren't old enough to remember anything like what is about to occur from a cold + snow + wind perspective.

 

 

Indeed... I was 12 yrs old, living in an old and very lightly insulated farm house over by South Bend when the 78 blizzard came through. I remember going to bed and the wind was blowing light I never heard before whistling through the rafters. Woke up, looked outside and was completely disoriented. Couldn't see the mailbox or shrubs because there was so much snow. There were drifts up to the roof in places and it was brutally cold. Do a google image search on the blizzard of 78, astounding pics. I don't know how the power did not go out for us as it would have been a deadly scenario had it done so...

[tStacsh]

1 hour ago, Bumblin Bman09 said:

This is the first map I've seen showing amounts

 

I could see some places in SWMI and NWMI getting 2 feet, but that broad area of 24-36 is kind of a joke.  

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

What I'm very confident in is that this will be a standout storm for the month of December for our area.  We'll look back many years from now and remember it like Dec 2000 and... umm... what else has been very good in December for us?  

12-15-87 Bomber down to 28.94" hg in SWMI.

Sub-29" hg just hugely difficult to do around here.

Kinda missing @Tom  and his WxBell Euro qpf and Kuchie maps (with commentary ofc), and @Niko and his Accu-graphics

[jaster220]

3 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

I could see some places in SWMI and NWMI getting 2 feet, but that broad area of 24-36 is kind of a joke.  

News flash. The darker shade on the map is only 12-24". Legend goes higher but not in play yet unless I'm mis-reading it. Which can happen too easily when they insist on using 50 shades of blue.

Working from lowest amt 1-3, yeah only (4) shades deep

[jcwxguy]