Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22

[bud2380]

This is the FV-3 model, but it looks very similar to the NAMs.  It really has turned the main line associated with the cold front into a weak scattered line of snow.  A far cry from what models have been showing.  This has the potential to drop to a 2-4" event if trends don't reverse. 

 

[jaster220]

2 minutes ago, gosaints said:

Ya the front end on the NAM is a glorified frontal passage.  That being said I gaining some confidence that this part of the system has the chance to be complete fluff

Fluff that can blow on the winds in serious fashion.

[jaster220]

What happened to @Money??

[winterfreak]

This thread emptied out quick.

[jaster220]

Just now, winterfreak said:

This thread emptied out quick.

Always does when/if The Plains majority aren't getting theirs. Very lop-sided Sub tbh

[tStacsh]

Snowfall totals don't look very impressive except where the Lake will boost totals.  Michigan looks to be the winner here, but the main event will be the cold and blowing snow.   There is a lot of snow on the ground in west michigan.  This is where the heavier snow may fall with a boost from the lake.  I don't see how we don't get Blizzard conditions Friday afternoon/night.  

[Bellona]

I figured it would get quiet. It looks real decent around my part of northeastern Iowa. I still anticipate blizzard warnings with incoming winds, even if we were to only receive a few inches.

[CentralNebWeather]

3 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

This thread emptied out quick.

Shorter range models 12z runs are horrendous around here.  All we ask for is enough to cover the ground.  At this rate that won't even occur. 

[Bellona]

My worry now is, people are going to see the snowfall forecast and think, "OH, I've driven in a lot more snow than this. I'll be fine." Then the winds hit and people are going to be in real trouble

[winterfreak]

12 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Shorter range models 12z runs are horrendous around here.  All we ask for is enough to cover the ground.  At this rate that won't even occur. 

I feel your pain. Such is life in this part of the country during the winter.

[CentralNebWeather]

1 minute ago, winterfreak said:

I feel your pain. Such is life in this part of the country during the winter.

My area is still at less than 1" for the season.  We almost always have had at least 1 storm by this time of year, either in Oct., Nov., or Dec.  It is even more discouraging with all the cold weather that we've had they we couldn't take advantage of it as has happened very close to me.  Next 2 weeks look much milder.  We have to hope everything cycles back through in Jan. and Feb.

[bud2380]

RGEM gives some hope yet.

 

[gosaints]

Looking more and more like a stat padder as far as snow goes.  Thinking alot of offices go with WWA from the snow part of the event.

[gosaints]

The GFS must be on a timeout

[Jack_GradStudent]

Any one deterministic model run that shows higher totals needs to be suspect at this point.. there's no point in paying any attention to the canadian that spits out 3 inches more than what the rest of the guidance is saying.. QPF across a wide range has been going down the past 48 hours. Now if ensemble probabilities start to lurch upward, that would be one thing, but 25th-75th percentiles have been going down consistently... to me it's looking like most places outside of the great lakes regions may be under warning criteria snow totals wise.

[gabel23]

[bud2380]

Good time for the GFS to take a break.  Just let the Euro handle it from here on out.  

[Bellona]

All I need is 2 inches to make this a good event with the forecasted winds. I'm wondering if ratios will be closer to 20:1 since snowfall should be before arrival of the worst winds.

[CentralNebWeather]

3 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Probably the scenario we might be looking at.  Some of the short term models have east west bands of snow where if you get under a band you might score 4-6".  However, the next bordering county may only get 0.5".  Have to hope the large band comes through intact.

[Bellona]

On to the GDPS at any rate for those still around. One day I hope to have a storm like we all thought could happen. Maybe next time!

[Bellona]

1 minute ago, sumweatherdude said:

So you're saying there's a chance?  

 

[tStacsh]

You guys are mad you aren't getting a crazy blizzard.  Well as great as it is, I am a little worried here.  I worry about power outages, my wife working overnights (I have almost 4 year old twin boys) etc...So on one hand, it's exciting, on the other hand this couldn't  be WORSE timing.   

I can probably handle everything, but power outages would be my #1 on my list of suckiness.  

[Jack_GradStudent]

2 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

So you're saying there's a chance?  

Areas to the north and east have a much better chance... even if the storm gets its act together a bit quicker, it would first benefit those areas before the KC area. We would have to see a fairly large trend for snow totals to go up. 

[Jack_GradStudent]

This is from a research article of a climatology of snow to liquid ratios for the entire conus between 1971-2000. Obviously, with these cold temperatures, snow to liquid ratios will be higher, but I post this to warn against just going with the Kuchera snow maps. This is a map of not the mean ratios, but the 75th percentile meaning what would likely be the higher end of ratios for a snow event. Much of Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois is in the 14-15:1 range. Climatology suggests that even in the more extreme events like this one, you can't necessarily bank on 20:1 + snow to liquid ratios. Another aspect to think about is how strong the winds will be which will likely breakdown the dendrites as they fall through the atmosphere. Just some thoughts... 

[OmahaSnowFan]

I blame myself. Bought a new snowblower Sunday and jinxed it.

Seriously though, 2 years ago in the winter of 20-21, Omaha had 50+” of snow and it was only the beginning of February. My sister in law had an old used snowblower they were getting rid of and so after being sick of shoveling 50” of snow that winter, we bought it real cheap from her. It literally quit snowing the rest of that season and I didn’t even use it that season even though traditionally February and March are normally our biggest hitters.

Then last winter, 21-22, we had a whopping 11” of snow the entire winter.

So far this winter, we’re at about 3”. So in basically 2 full years, we’ve had 14” of snow. Total.

And for some reason I thought it made sense to buy a new one. I was getting the old one out to prepare for this storm and it wouldn’t start. Rather than messing around with an old one, I bit the bullet and bought a new electric one. We’ll see if I use it this year either.

[CentralNebWeather]

Oh Canada 12z, puts out the most snow by far in this area.  Is it on to something, or out in no mans land?

[CentralNebWeather]

[Bellona]

Hmm, improvement somewhat in Iowa from 0z run on gfs. 

[tStacsh]

This is losing strength on the models.  I'll take a slightly less strong storm here.  

[FarmerRick]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Always does when/if The Plains majority aren't getting theirs. Very lop-sided Sub tbh

I'm here, just lurking as usual.

[Grizzcoat]

GFS maybe bucking downward trend in qpf. First run with decent increase for many in IA.

[gosaints]

Some signs that the GFS may be stopping the bleed on this run

 

[james1976]

Warning level for a wide area if the GFS verifies. I'll be heading back to MN tonight. Snow should move in around lunchtime tomorrow. 

[MIKEKC]

With regards to yesterday's event here in KC, the Canadian model and RGEM picked up on the dry air and showed the the snow having a tough time making it into the city. It turned out to be right as we had basically nothing in the city when the NAM was showing 3 inches of snow. (current NAM is the weakest of all model runs as far as totals go for everyone) The GFS did correct around 24 hours out showing a non-event keeping the brunt of the moisture west of here and up into Iowa. The GFS actually was the only one showing this system up in Iowa from 50 hours out, the rest played catch up.

The current Canadian and RGEM show a nice 3-4 inch snow with crazy wind and crazy cold. We'll see if these two models can pull out another win as I'll take that winter storm every day of the week. ICON shows 2-3 inches in the city.

Let's face it, it's KC, hard to get big snowfalls here. 

48 hours out, we'll see if we can get the storm to dig a bit more. You just never know. We all still have a great chance of a winter storm and a white X-mas, we all should be super happy about that. Last year here in KC, I believe we were 72 degrees on X-mas eve. 

40MPH winds, snow falling, dangerous cold, that sounds like a winter storm to me! At least we have something to track. With every storm, there will be some surprises. 

[Snowshoe]

I was surprised yesterday when NWS Green Bay didn't issue watches. They held firm this morning as well.

National Weather Service Green Bay WI
418 AM CST Tue Dec 20 2022

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

Still too much uncertainty on key aspects of the forecast to
issue headlines for the incoming storm system with the morning
issuance.

[gabel23]

I"m riding the Canadian and Euro. By far have been the most consistent. Not saying we get the totals the Canadian is showing but it has a good idea in terms of the heaviest snow band. That actually lines ups pretty well with what the GFS is showing; I just don't trust the GFS though that thing has been Jekyll and Hyde! Jim Flowers seems to believe in it also.

I'm fine with any amount, just please give us enough to cover the ground before the arctic invasion. 

[CentralNebWeather]

5 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

I"m riding the Canadian and Euro. By far have been the most consistent. Not saying we get the totals the Canadian is showing but it has a good idea in terms of the heaviest snow band. That actually lines ups pretty well with what the GFS is showing; I just don't trust the GFS though that thing has been Jekyll and Hyde! Jim Flowers seems to believe in it also.

I'm fine with any amount, just please give us enough to cover the ground before the arctic invasion. 

Great stuff @gabel23.  Jim is a great person to follow if you have Facebook.  Good humor and gives great weather lessons.  

[OmahaSnowFan]

I may be off here, but seems like .6” of QPF should be equating to more than 7.9” of snow with these ratios. That’s “only” 13.1:1 ratios.

Not to mention the fact that Kuchera seems overdone a lot of the times.

Edit: never mind most of the other numbers are between 15-20:1 which makes more sense.

[CentralNebWeather]

@gabel23What do you think the NWS offices put out this afternoon, winter weather advisories, winter storm warnings, or blizzard warnings?  I would assume they would need to issue something this afternoon as the poor conditions move in Wednesday evening which is only a little over 1 day away.

[kush61]

Another lurker here.

Cold front forecasted to come through my area at the crack of noon. I'll be out doors waiting for it !